A new No. 1 prospect in monthly rankings update
The Mariners Low-A affiliate in Modesto owns three of the top four prospects in the system.
When the season began the Seattle Mariners’ farm system was a bit… I’ll call it unprocessed. A lot of the best talents were teenagers that hadn’t played much, or at all, a result of the graduations and trades made the last few years.
We’re at the halfway mark in the minor league season now, and mauration of the system is apparent.
Bryce Miller graduated, Bryan Woo is right behind him, and Emerson Hancock has finally put in a healthy season from the get-go, an important factor in his development.
The biggest gains for Seattle down on the farm have occurred in High-A Everett and Low-A Modesto. And guess what? It’s all about hitters.
There’s a new sherrif in town, too.
Here’s my updated Mariners prospect rankings through June — the mid-season update.
*Players currently in the big leagues not included, even if they have yet to exhaust their rookie status
1. Michael Arroyo, 2B/3B — Modesto (A)
Arroyo has answered the bell in 2023, and while it’s a tiny sample of under 20 games, it’s a continuation of the tools and developing skills that began a year ago in the Dominican Summer League, led by a high rates of contact.
At the plate his hands are extraordinarily quick and agile to the zone, the swing is controlled and consistent, and the bat-to-ball skills are high-level. Arroyo’s swing generates natural backspin, suggesting at least average power down the road as he adds strength.
He’s an average runner but his functional athleticism is above-average, supporting very good hands and enough arm strength to handle any infield spot.
I’ve heard comparisons to Frank White and Bill Madlock, but for the younger audience, Howie Kendrick is a popular one, as is Ronnie Belliard. For me, Kendrick and Placido Polanco serves as starters. From an upside point of view, I like Edgardo Alfonzo or even former Mariners second baseman Bret Boone, because, yes, there’s reason to believe in some power as well asome time at second base.
2. Harry Ford, C — Everett (A+)
Ford has done little to fall from No. 1, and he really hasn’t. But questions remain about is chances to stick behind the plate. If he does, the bat will play, no question. He’s a technician, working counts and drawing walks. There’s plus power in the swing and he’s shown that at every stop thus far. I do wonder if it would benefit him to be a little more aggressive in the zone, perhaps tapping into more power, and even improving his results on contact.
If Ford has to move out from behind the plate, things change a bit.
Many presume the first stop for Ford if he’s not donning the tools of ignorance is second base, and while that may be true, it’s difficult for me to buy that as his long-term position. I’d bet on third base or the outfield, which would add pressure to the bat.
Ford, 20, makes consistent contact and controls the zone as well as anyone in the system, which bodes well long-term. If he ends up in a corner, however, a higher volume of impact at the plate would go a long way.
3. Cole Young, SS — Modesto (A)
Young is as safe a bet to get to the big leagues as any talent on this list, thanks to solid-average athletic tools, developed secondary skills, and the best swing in the org.
Young’s upside is relatively limited due to the likelihood he maxes out with below-average power, but there’s every reason to buy the hit tool, and he’s added good weight since the club made him their first-round pick last July so I’m not entirely pessimistic about his chances to get to 15 homers and 30 doubles.
He covers the zone well, rarely swings and misses, protects the plate well with two strikes, and draws more than his share of walks. It’s a line-drive stroke and he uses it to pepper the grass from the right-field line to the left-center gap.
Young is playing a lot of shortstop now and has the arm for the position, but profiles better at second base where his range projects above average.
4. Gabriel Gonzalez, OF — Modesto (A)
Gonzalez is the best hitting prospect in the system and if he had even a 20% chance to play center field he’d be the No. 1 prospect and Top 30 in baseball.
Alas, Gonzalez possesses a left-field defensive profile, but he should be at least average there with a below-average arm, though his spring showing suggests his arm strength has improved some.
Gonzalez’s future power grades vary, depending on who you ask. For me, t’s 25-homer upside, but he’s still learning to lift the ball. In addition, despite very good strikeout rates he does tend to swing and miss more than is ideal, and will expand the zone.
The real test may come in the Northwest League where the pitching may be able to expose a weakness, but Gonzalez is just 19 years of age all season and is adding a nice line to his resume in the Cal League.
One can argue any of the Top 4 here as the No. 1 prospect for Seattle, and I wouldn’t lift a vocal chord to cross. It’s truly 1A, 1B, 1C, and 1D situation, and an eye-of-the-beholder scenario. Just be careful whose eye you trust.
5. Felnin Celesten, SS — Arizona (ACL)
In a year, maybe less, Celesten easily could be No. 1 here and Top 30 in baseball. He’s a switch-hitter with the physical tools to make a significant impact offensively and the athleticism to produce above-average value at the premium position of shortstop.
His hamstring injury this spring set back his professional debut in the DSL a month and a half but the phrase ‘big-time clay to mold’ fits well on Celesten, and despite the raw nature of 17-year-olds it’s easy to fixate on upide here.
6. Emerson Hancock, RHP — Arkansas (AA)
Hancock has yet to display frontline stuff, instead looking more like a volume starter with average or better strike-throwing ability and two useful but onconsistent secondaries.
Hancock pitches comfortably at 93-95 with a four-seamer showing solid-average ride and improved carry up in the zone. He also has a two-seamer he uses less than ever, but can pull out to offer a different look. His best offspeed pitch is a 55-grade changeup that could be fully plus in time. He doesn’t use it as much as he could, presumably so he can work on his breaking ball, a pitch he’ll need
That breaker is a fringe-average slider with average depth, tilt, and snap, inducing some swing-and-miss in the Texas League but not projecting especially well to the big leagues just yet.
Hancock is different than his already-promoted predecessors Miller and Woo, who each have huge fastball value to take the pressure off the secondaries. Despite the increase in the utility of his heater, the development of his slider is paramount to his ultimate ceiling, but he could probably serve as a back-end starter to some degree if he cleans up the spotty control he’s displayed this season (30 walks, 5 HBP in 65.1 IP, 10.8% BB).
At 24, it might seem Hancock is running out time to find some of the upside the club saw in him when they selected him at No. 6 overall in 2020. But the pandemic and injuries limited the righty to 167 innings between his sophomore season at Georgia and the start of this season. Hancock deserves a little grace, perhaps into next season.
7. Jonatan Clase, CF — Arkansas (AA)
Clase torched the High-A Northwest League and was quickly sent to Double-A Arkansas where his power has continued, but to the detriment of his ability to make consistent contact and hit for average.
Clase, a 70-grade runner who has swiped 42 bases this season, has added significant strength the past two years, generating legitimate big-league power from both sides of the plate. His tendency to swing-and-miss isn’t new, but it’s never reared its ugly head to the tune of a 35% strikeout rate until now.
The good news is Clase just turned 21, so there’s plenty of time for him to perfect the game of tug-o-war between his power and his chances to hit enough for it to matter.
Defensively, he has the speed to be very good in center, but lacks the instincual first step and arm to flourish. Still, he’ll outrun some of these deficiencies, suggesting a middle-of-the-field defender with offensive upside.
8. Walter Ford, RHP — Arizona (R)
Ford went No. 74 overall last July as a high-upside project who has pitched into the mid-90s. He’s 6-foot-3 and 200 pounds and offers deception and plane with his high-arm slot and ability to keep his front shoulder closed.
It’s a long arm path, which may be a problem when it comes to control and command, as well as holding runners, but his arm speed is high-level and his natural stride is quick without sacrificing power.
His best secondary is a slider that projects as a power breaker with late bite and developing sweep. There’s also a changeup in his arsenal that figures to pair well with his four-seamer, considering batters don’t tend to see the ball well out of his hand.
9. Tyler Locklear, 1B — Everett (A+)
Locklear, the club’s second-round pick a year ago out of Virginia Commonwealth, showed well in High-A Everett before his hand injury landed him on the IL.
Lock is probably the ‘bat’ in the system closest to offering help to the big club. His ETA may be set back a few months now, but there’s still a chance he returns this summer and sets himself up for a mid-to-late 2024 major-league debut.
The first baseman was batting .311/.419/.572 when he was hit by a pitch. He was even better in his last 26 games: .333/.452/.634 with seven homers and seven doubles. Locklear was raking, and was probably headed for a summer stay in Arkansas. Such a promotion isn’t entirely out of the question if he can get back in July and show his timing is in tact, especially considering how much deeper the Texas League regular season extends (September 22) and the fact the Travelers just clinched a postseason berth.
10. Lazaro Montes, 1B/OF — Arizona (R)
Montes is already pounding out elite exit velos at 18, but he’s a prototypical boom-or-bust prospect with a lot of risk in the hit tool, and the likelihood Montes ends up at first base.
The swing is monstrous, however, with swing-and-miss risk but 70 raw power and above-average natural bat-to-ball skills, rare for a player with this kind of power.
He’s a solid athlete for his size, including fringe-average in-line speed and some agility that allows him to handle right field for now.
This list will look vastly different in next month’s update. The Mariners own five of the top 92 picks in the draft, including three in the Top 30, and the seventh-most money to spend on players.
The trade deadline also will have an impact on these rankings, likely no matter the Mariners’ approach. It’s my opinion the club will attempt to buy regardless of their situation late in July, as they search for long-term help in the lineup, specifically at second base, third base, and/or the outfield, but they could pull a sell-job at the same time if they can extend the value of pending free agent Teoscar Hernandez by swapping him out this summer.