Adding Middle-of-the-Order Offense Stands Alone for Mariners, Jerry Dipoto
The trade for right-hander Luis Castillo sets up a clear offseason for Seattle.
I’ve made the point the acquisition of Luis Castillo makes the club’s offseason wish list very short and very clear: Add offense.
There are a lot of ways to accomplish the feat, both in terms of acquisition type — trade, free agency — as well as where on the field these hitters fit.
But let’s start with the clearest, albeit not the easiest, path to a playoff lineup.
Considering the current projected roster for the Seattle Mariners next season, the most obvious places on the field to add offense are second base, where Adam Frazier is a free agent, and the outfield, where Mitch Haniger is a free agent.
The simple route is to add a plus bat at second base and another to replace Haniger, but the latter move isn’t a net gain, and the former is one of the most difficult pieces of the puzzle to find in all of baseball.
The best way is to remove the crown from J.P. Crawford, sign one of the free agent shortstops, and slide Crawford to second, since convincing a star shortstop to sign in Seattle is a tough enough task, doing so while asking them to change positions is a whole different level of difficulty.
Turner is 29, and trending toward a $30 million AAV or higher on a deal that’s likely to exceed seven years. He’s a great player peaking at 6-7 wins the past two seasons and brings an extra gear of speed to the table.
The Dodgers are not going to end the offseason without one of the shortstops, and Turner returning to the Dodgers is the bet.
Bogaerts, 30 in October, has been the most consistent hitting shortstop in baseball the last five seasons, posting wRC+ marks of 133, 141, 130, 130, and 133, but he’s also the oldest and fringiest of defenders. Still, we’re looking at Marcus Semien money to start the conversations, most likely.
One potential wild card to Bogaerts is he might be willing to move off shortstop if he gets the contract he wants. Pay him like a top shortstop and he may agree to move.
Boston has been positioning itself to re-sign Bogaerts in some ways, but considering they wouldn’t pay Mookie Betts I don’t think Bogaerts returning to the Red Sox is any kind of sure thing.
Swanson is my favorite of the free-agent shortstops, not because he’s the best of them, but because he’s the least likely to command the mega deal. Don’t get me wrong, he’s going to get paid, but he doesn’t have the resume of the other three and carries the lightest stick. He’s a bat, relative to shortstop, and player every team should want, but he’s more of a leadoff hitter with pop than a run producer.
Swanson, 29 prior to the start of next season, is likely to stay in Atlanta, but if he gets away the Georgia native probably looks for another club in the east, such as the Red Sox if they let Bogaerts walk, the Phillies, Cardinals, or even the Orioles.
Correa would be the perfect fit if it weren’t for one thing: He’s played more than 110 games in a season just twice. The Mariners need big performers with a healthy track record. There are, however, scenarios he still makes sense in Seattle, including another short contract with an opt out, limiting the team’s risk and exposure.
Options at second base:
Gavin Lux, LAD
Lux has had a bit of a breakthrough season, batting .294/.369/.421 in 366 PAs this season. A natural shortstop, he handles second well, can still play short, and has played passable outfield defense in a few hundred innings the past two seasons.
Lux is just 24 and very well could be a significant piece for the Dodgers’ puzzle in 2023, but the Mariners have a few pieces the Dodgers could want to help fill outfield spots.
Jorge Polanco, MIN
He’s a fringe-average defender at second and isn’t having the offensive year he did last season, but Polanco, 29, is signed cheap through 2023 with two club options and offers a significant upgrade to what the club has received from the position this season.
The Twins aren’t going to be inclined to move him, so he’s not going to be cheap, but is attainable from a club in constant need of pitching who isn’t developing its own at a high rate.
Ketel Marte, ARI
Marte just signed another extension with Arizona, but considering the D-Backs play in the west, have a lot of young starting to arrive, and still appear at least two years away from competing, entertaining a trade of Marte to fill a hole or two on the mound makes a lot of sense.
Marte doesn’t have a resume full of healthy seasons, clouding his value, but it’s difficult to imagine clubs not valuing his age-29-34 seasons enough to make a significant offer. He’ll be paid $15 million per season through 2027.
Jeff McNeil, NYM
McNeil is among the more underrated players in baseball despite playing in New York. He’s a very good second-base glove, makes a lot of contact and has hit .300 or better with a .360 or better OBP every year of his 5-year career except 2021.
The Mets could be in the market for one of the shortstops or could spend their money on outfield options and pitching and go young or inexpensive at second, using McNeil’s trade value to fill one of those holes. He will enter 2023 with two years of team control remaining.
Brendan Rodgers, COL
While it’s legit to wonder about a Coors bat, Rodgers hasn’t relied on the elevation for very long — he has two full season in the majors, but has hit at every level of pro ball.
The 26-year-old is an above-average second base defender, offers at least average power, and there may be even more in the tank offensively considering his ability to make contact and find the barrel.
He’s under control through 2025.
The question here is, why would the Rockies move him? Well, why would the Rockies, a 4th-place team at best with no path to the postseason in the next few seasons, sign a 37-year-old middling reliever to a two-year, $19 million extension?
Joey Wendle, MIA
Wendle has had a down year at the plate — 86 wRC+ — and missed nearly six weeks on the IL in three separate stints with a hamstring injury.
Wendle can really play second base, has some natural ability at shortstop, and experience at third and in the outfield, potentially making him an ideal utility player. But if he hits, he’s worthy of the second-base job, and probably among the top options for Seattle if they can’t land one of the star shortstops in free agency.
Nico Hoerner, CHC
Hoerner broke out in 2022, adding more pop to his game, but he’s one of the best defensive second baseman in baseballm has looked good at shortstop this season, and projects to hit for average and get on base no matter where the power lands.
The Cubs have him through 2025, but do have a few other options around the infield, and if they make a shortstop splash this winter they could use Hoerner to fill other voids and play Christopher Morel at second in 2023.
With or without Haniger, there’s also room for more offense in the outfield, especially considering the way the club has allowed the DH spot to be used. Ideally, Haniger is brought back — we’ll talk about exactly what this could cost the club and why next week on Baseball Things — and another OF/DH bat is added to the mix.
Options?
Free Agents
Joey Gallo
Gallo may be starting a redemption tour with the Dodgers and could end up an intrriguing option over the winter if he shows he can get back to hitting .220 or better. He can field in a corner and the raw power is huge, so if he can get to it more he’s an exlosive power bat. Long odds. We’ll see.
He’s not going to hit for a lot of power, but hits line drives, gets on base, and can play an above-average left field, making him an interesting possibility for Seattle, even if they bring back Haniger.
The Mets should be bringing back Nimmo, but if they don’t he’s my favorite outfield target for Seattle. He’s not a big bat, but does carry a .267/.385/.440 career slash into the weekend, can really play center field and adds athleticism to the roster, something that needs to be addressed for 2023.
An outfield foursome of Julio Rodrgiuez, Jesse Winker, Mitch Haniger, and Brandon Nimmo is a very good one, and because the club doesn’t employ a DH-only bat, all four can play together every day.
Pederson is more of a strongside platoon bat, but if Seattle keeps Haniger and adds a big bat on the infield, they don’t need to be as aggressive from an investment standpoint with outfielders.
Pederson,30, is making $6 million this season and figures to be looking for two years and $15 million this winter (The Robbie Grossman deal), but I’m not sure he gets it considering he’s not facing lefties much these days and is a below-average defender.
Martinez can still hit at 35, but he’s not the star he was three years ago and is pretty much a pure DH now, suggesting it’s he or Haniger in Seattle for 2023, and that’s a no-brainer for the Mariners.
Trades
Ian Happ, CHC
Happ is a good hitter who can handle all three outfield spots and even second base in a pinch, but isn’t the big bat the Mariners need to change the dynamic of their lineup next season. Still, Happ and upgrades such as Wendle or Hoerner, plus the return of Haniger, closes a lot of holes in Seattle’s current lineup.
Bryan Reynolds, PIT
Reynolds isn’t having a great year, but he’s a very, very good player capable of .300/.400/.500 with 30 homers and he’s a legit centerfield option, too. He’s the kind of impact bat the club needs, but the trade cost is the issue. Pittsburgh has the makings of a really fun lineup with Reynolds joined by Ke’Bryan Hayes and Oneil Cruz now, and Matt Frazier, Henry Davis, and Ji-hwan Bae in a year or two, and the Bucs are in business.
I’m not sure where the pitching will come from, however, which is why Reynolds probably should be on the trade block. But does Seattle have expendable arms to land him? Not right now they don’t, but things can change fast.
Emerson Hancock and Bryce Miller are increasing their value as the season progresses, and the presence of the Big Four in the majors right now could make both available in trades this winter without feeling the club is selling low on Hancock, the club’s first-round pick in 2020.
One outside-the-box approach to adding offense is considering both infield corners. Sure, the club has Ty France, who is a very good first baseman, and Eugenion Suarez has been solid at third, but there’s room — again, because the club doesn’t have a pure DH to house — to add another corner infielder and use the DH to mix it up and keep both players in the lineup regularly.
Sure, it’s ideal the DH is open for Haniger and even Winker some in 2023, but there are worse scenarios, including the one they have in 2022, which is not having enough offense to be serious threats in the American League.
3B
Brandon Drury, FA
We talked Drury a lot during the summer, but he’s a better fit at 3B and clearly benefitted from playing in Cincinnati, suggesting you could get 2B production from him, but not likely enough to warrant regular time at 3B and DH.
Can he hold onto 2B defensively for a full season? I’m skeptical, which means he’d have to share with a more capable defender, complicating the acquisition and how he fits.
1B
Josh Bell, FA
Bell is a poor 1B glove so is more of a DH than anything else, but is not an outfield option at all, making for a tough fit in the grand scheme.
Garrett Cooper, MIA
Cooper isn’t a middle-of-the-order bat, but is a quality hitter who can spell a corner outfielder as well as handle first base,
Trey Mancini, FA
It doesn’t appear Mancini has more 130 wRC+ seasons in him, but like Cooper can manage in a corner outfield spot enough to stave off pure 1B/DH labels, and shows no recognizable splits.
Rhys Hoskins, PHI
Another 1B/DH/OF with weak outfield defense, Hoskins is a nice timeshare bat if the club is able to add enough defense and athleticism with their other acquisitions.
Jesse Winker
Winker, who isn’t a good defender anyway, has seen his range go even further south as he’s played banged up for over half the season, is also a hitter likely to rebounds in 2023.
He has swing adjustments to make, mainly to shorten up and delete some of the loop in his path, but even in his worst season as a pro he’s put up a 114 wRC+.
But the Mariners cannot bank on Winker returning to form. His resurgence next year has to be a bonus, as does any significant growth from Cal Raleigh or Julio Rodriguez.
While the odds are stacked heavily against any of the four shortstops having real interest in Seattle, sometimes money talks, and at some point Seattle is going to have to be willing to go above and beyond.
While ‘overpaying,’ is a dangerous approach, being the high bidder and paying significantly more than a player is worth are two very different things, and the Mariners are well-equipped to manage a payroll with a $30-35 million player, even if the value wanes in the later years.
There’s a limit, but an additional 10-15% in total dollars, and adding player-friendly opt-outs and incentives, shouldn’t be out of the question for Dipoto in his efforts to put this team over the top.
Neither should giving a star acquisition the shortstop nod over Crawford, who is a leader on this team, but hasn’t earned the right to keep a barrier around the six-hole moving forward. He simply isn’t good enough to warrant that kind of preferential treatment.