American League Playoff Rankings 1.0
Were nearing the quarter mark of the 2024 season. Let's take an peak where the American League playoff races stand.
The standings, after five or six weeks, don’t necessarily tell the whole story, but at the end of the season they are what dictates the postseason berths, so let’s start with a look at where things stand through May 7.
Yeah, the only thing keeping the defending American League West champion Houston Astros from being the worst team in the circuit by record is the Chicago White Sox. **shudder**
There’s no clear top team in the league, at least not yet, and it could end up being any one of about six clubs. The Baltimore Orioles, New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians have the best records, but only by a few games over the next group, including the Texas Rangers, Minnesota Twins, Kansas City Royals, Boston Red Sox, Seattle Mariners, and Detroit Tigers.
The following is about how good the teams are and have been, based on so-far performance, but not simply wins and losses. These are not projections or predictions. They’re a live ranking.
1. Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles are getting a boost now from the returns of lefty John Means and former ace Kyle Bradish, but they don’t have tons of rotation depth after top prospect Cade Povich. The O’s pen has been solid yet not spectacular and won’t get Felix Bautista back this season, keeping the focus on the young and producing lineup and that starting five.
They have plenty in the system to make a couple of deals if they so choose, but can still get offensive support from Heston Kjerstad, Jackson Holliday, Coby Mayo, and others.
They’ve played well and consistent and get the nod right now at the top.
2. New York Yankees
I’m not convinced the pitching holds up without a healthy return of Gerrit Cole, but the reigning Cy Young winner did get another bullpen session in this week, and could return in June sometimes.
But Marcus Stroman’s 3.41 ERA seems unsustainable considering his inconsistent control and tendency to serve up the long ball, and Carlos Rodon’s injury history has to be a constant consideration.
Furthermore, I don’t but their bullpen’s early success. They lead all of baseball in bullpen ERA (2.27), but own a mere 20.3% strikeout rate. It’s a solid bullpen, but not the dominating one their standard ERA suggests.
The lineup is great when healthy and still good when not entirely intact, led by Juan Soto. They’re gettig solid production from Anthony Rizzo, Anthony Volpe, and Alex Verdugo, and if Aaron Judge gets rolling — and he hasn’t been bad, but a 129 wRC+ isn’t Judge-like — this lineup will be the nightmare the Bombers envisioned when they acquired Soto over the winter.
3. Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians can pitch, with or without Shane Bieber, and have scored runs at a clip the organization hasn’t seen in years, despite Jose Ramirez off to a pedestrian start (99 wRC+).
But the club just called up top prospect Kyle Manzardo, and can probably expect some in-season growth from Ramirez, and Bo Naylor, so this team may be for real.
One question: Can Steven Kwan sustain at least most of what he’s dome so far?Entering play Wednesday he’s batting .353/.407/.496 (164 wRC+). He’s basically Luis Arraez with some defensive and baserunning value.
4. Texas Rangers
Texas is in first place despite injuries to Josh Jung, Nathan Eovaldi, and now Wyatt Langford, and a slow start from Corey Seager (73 wRC+), one of the elite hitters in baseball.
The club’s pitching staff is full of middle relievers and mid-rotation starters, and their results reflect that (No. 11 in ERA, 15 in FIP, 14 in xFIP) as they await the return of Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom in the summer months.
The relief corps may be an issue they need to address in July, too, with David Robertson and Kirby Yates looking like the lone stalwarts, though Cole Winn has certainly flashed, as has Jacob Latz.
4. Seattle Mariners
No other club has pitched as well as Seattle of late, and it’s probably the best 1-4 in all of baseball. The bullpen, as short as it appears on the surface without Matt Brash and Gregory Santos, has also been terrific (2.26 ERA since April 11), and there’s no reason they won’t continue to some degree.
Seattle’s lineup remains predictably inconsistent, with veterans Julio Rodriguez, J.P. Crawford (until his injury), Jorge Polanco, and Mitch Garver all off to slow starts, and the latter two swinging and missing a lot more than their career marks.
The result is the Mariners are averaging 3.75 runs per game, fourth-worst in the AL, though they are climbing the latter the last 15 days and sport a near-average 98 wRC+ after the 10-6 Game 2 win in Minneapolis Tuesday.
6. Minnesota Twins
The Twins also can really pitch, creating a Top-6 split of three offensive-minded clubs (BAL, NYY, TEX) and three pitching-heavy attacks (CLE, SEA, MIN). But the Twins’ offense caught fire for a 12-game winning streak and now ranks No. 5 in run per game in the American League, right behind Cleveland, explaining why both are playoff-caliber clubs.
The Twins’ biggest issues seem to be health and bullpen depth — just like everyone else in the league, it seems — but they might be one mid-rotation or better starter from seeing eye-to-eye with Cleveland.
7. Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox have taken a step forward on the mound — two, really — and a lot of seems sustainable, particularly Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford. Nick Pivetta has premium arm talent but is likely to fall short of hanging a 0.82 on the circuit this season.
Oddly, Boston hasn’t hit as much as one might expect, especially considering Tyler O’Neil’s season is overshadowing Verdugo’s in New York, and the emergence of Wilyer Abreu. But Trevor Story is on the IL again, Triston Casas has joined him, and Masataka Yoshida’s priduction is mostly limited to singles, and doubles versus right-handed pitching.
Boston’s farm isn’t deep, but if they’re in position there’s room to make a significant deal for help.
8. Detroit Tigers
For me, the Tigers’ early-season success is more sustainable all-around, and there’s a little more room for in-house growth than with, say, Kansas City, but I actually think they have performed better based on where and who they have plyed thus far.
Riley Greene can really play, and role players are doing their jobs in Detroit. If they can add one bat, and perhaps get Spencer Torkelson back where he was a year ago, the Tigers have a chanceto stay in the Wild Card hunt.
Detroit has pitched well thus far, particularly their starters, with Tarik Skubal in the Cy Young conversation early on, and Jack Flaherty resurging toward No. 1 status. Health will be key for this group considering their histories, and the bullpen will probably require a few new arms to stay competitive, but overall it’s been a good season in Motown.
9. Kansas City Royals
The Royals have been good so far and have a legit shot to stay relevant, but I’m not buying the pitching holding up to this level all year and they will need more from their relievers to prove me wrong.
KC also isn’t exactly burning up the basepaths with their .305 OBP and 95 wRC+, but Vinnie Pasquantino is a lot better than he has shown so far, as is MJ Melendez, though their bounceback probaby gets partially canceled out by Salvador Perez coming back to earth.
Bobby Witt Jr.’s numbers might very well be tenable, however. He’s a true MVP candidate the Royals can lean on for 150 games.
With another impact starter and a couple of relievers, this team can win the division, perhaps this season.
10. Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays may be more equipped to compete all year than Boston, Kansas City, or Detroit, but injuries have decimated their pitching staff — they’re No. 24 in baseball in ERA, 22 in FIP, 17 in xFIP, and while the rotation has been fine their bullpen has been awful, among the worst in baseball.
Bullpens, however, are the easiest unit to fix on the fly, and if the Rays’ lineup was fully intact and producing I’d feel a lot better about them despite the so-so early-season performance
Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz, and Harold Ramirez all need to get the bats going, but top prospect Junior Caminero can probably help with the mediocre offensive effort soon enough.
11. Oakland Athletics
Yeah, the A’s are No. 11. They’ve outplayed the bottom four teams, three of them by a wide margin. The No. 12 team is almost certainly going to finish above Oakland, but nothing about their performances tells me they’ve earned it yet.
The trade deadline will be interesting for Oakland. Do they cash out on volatile bullpen pieces or hold them for another six months to a year?
12. Toronto Blue Jays
The only reason the Jays aren’t the most disappointing team in the American League at this point is the team in Space City exists.
Toronto is second-worst in runs and slugging, fourth-worst in average, have one of the worst defenses in baseball, and their pitching staff is in shambles. The Jays rank 11th in ERA, 14th in FIP, 12th in xFIP, and lead the league in homers allowed.
Offensively, their two stars, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., have not been the anchors the club expects them to be, with Guerrero forging a 111 wRC+ and Bichette less than half that thanks to a 7-for-56 (.135) stretch since April 20.
13. Houston Astros
One can argue the Angels have outplayed the Astros, but I don’t quite see it that way, despite Houston finding ways to lose on the regular. There have been some flukey performances by and against the Astros, so they get the nod here.
The real question here is how big of a hole can the Astros climb out of if and when they get fully healthy on the mound? They’re just No. 8 in runs scored, but carry easy-to-see upside there for the rest of the season, and the bullpen should regress to more successful levels than the first 34 games.
It’s already an eight-game Wild Card deficit with eight teams to pass and the same in the division with four to pass,so there’s no margin for error, but no end to their struggles in sight. In fact, they don’t seem incredibly like struggles anymore. Maybe, for the most part, this is just who they are in 2024.
14. Los Angeles Angels
There’s nothing specifically redeeming baout the Angels’ roster from a unit standpoint. They’re No. 10 in runs scored and wRC+ (96), No. 11 in OBP. They rank 14th of 15 teams in the AL in ERA, 13th in FIP and xFIP, and their bullpen is last in ERA and LOB%.
I’ve always liked Reid Detmers and he’s been pretty solid, but Tyler Anderson’s 2.74 ERA is smoke and mirrors and Griffin Canning is not a big-league starter.
On top of that, Mike Trout is now on the IL, leaving the Angels with one average or better hitter on the roster (Taylor Ward, prime trade bait this summer).
15. Chicago White Sox
The Sox are basically a club searching for as many trade-worthy players they can this season, and maybe it starts with Luis Robert Jr. It certainly will include reliever Michael Kopech, and perhaps right-hander Erick Fedde, who is off to a nice season in seven starts.
But Chris Getz will not be able to trade Andrew Benintendi’s 42 wRC+ and the $60-plus million left on his five-year contract, and Yoan Moncada is hurt yet again, so the Sox will have to eat the remainder of his 2024 salary ($24 million), plus his $5 million buyout.
Whether or not Robert ends up on the block may be a tough call since he’s missed the last month and has his own injury history, and the Sox do have a few part-time players other clubs will covet, led by Gavin Sheets, who is raking, but he’s 1-for-16 versus left-handed pitching making him a 28-year-old platoon bat.