Cactus League Thoughts: Week 2
Are we learning some things? No, but we're seeing results that may be hints. There's a difference.
Spring training results don’t tell us what we wish they did. It’s a tiny sample, often within a tiny sample, and within the structure of Major League Baseball even the same sample size in the regular season versus legitimate competition wouldn’t provide such answers.
Process, however, is a different story.
In the end, context is king in March.
Having said that, here are my Cactus League thoughts after the first full week.
Nothing about the Luis Urias-Josh Rojas scenario at third base has changed, despite Urias’ shoulder barking a bit early on and the reports he came into camp a bit out of shape. The backup plan if Urias isn’t ready to play the field by Opening Day very likely is, and should be, Brian Anderson. All three players seems to have brought along their hitting shoes to Peoria (7-19, 3-2B, 3B, 3 HR combined).
It may appear there is a battle between Cade Marlowe and Taylor Trammell, two left-handed hitting outfielders with mixed results in the majors. But there’s no sane evaluation where Trammell is the better bet to provide value in the big leagues in 2024, and nothing that has or will happen in Peoria in March can change that. Trammell is out of options, but neither player is likely to make the opening day roster without an injury or two to the outfield crop.
Jonatan Clase, for now, remains incredibly overrated by most sets of rankings — I have him at 18 and that may be too high. Not a lot has changed in the last nine months. The most likely outcome for Clase remains average left fielder with part-time centerfield value and a 45-grade offensive profile highlighted by 70-grade speed.
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For 2024, Samad Taylor may be ahead of not only Clase and Sam Haggerty, but Trammell, too. If a 26-man spot came down to Marlowe and Taylor, right now, I’m 50-50.
I maintain Ryan Bliss can’t consistently cover the strike zone versus good velocity, but he’s shown off his strengths this spring. In case you are wondering, he’s never played third base, and there’s no reason to beleve he’d be better there in 2024 than a healthy Urias.
Dominic Canzone is the Mariners best bet in right field. Mitch Haniger is established, and I imagine he produces while healthy, but Canzone deserves a shot to be a full-timer, even if that means time in both corners as well as DH.
I continue to be unimpressed by Alberto Rodriguez since he arrived in High-A in 2021. It appears he has to sacrifice power to make enough contact — as he did in Double-A last season — but if he can find a happy medium there’s still a part-time bat ceiling here, and not necessarily a hitter that needs to be platooned. Rodrifuex has had extended stretches versus southpaws with big production. Last season he batted .327/.441/.522 versus lefties with a respectable 22% strikeout rate.
I’d rank the bullpen candidates as follows, assuming Andres Munoz, Gregory Santos, Gabe Speier, and Austin Voth are sure things:
1. Trent Thornton
2. Jackson Kowar
3. Tayler Saucedo
4. Cody Bolton
5. Carlos Vargas
6. Ty Buttrey
Buttrey is the only one not on the club’s 40-man roster already. Eduard Bazardo has yet to appear in a game after arriving in camp with a minor injury.Speaking of the 40-man, I’d rank the strength of the player’s hold on 40-man spots, from weakest to strongest, like so:
1. Taylor Trammell, OF
2. Collin Snider, RHP3. Sam Haggerty, UT
4. Mauricio Llovera, RHP
5. Ty Adcock, RHP
One can argue Haggerty should be right behind Trammell, considering the kids on the way and the presence of Samad Taylor.One thing we discussed on Mitch Unfiltered for this week was the chance’s Emerson Hancock starts the season in the rotation. But I’ll go in depth on the next Baseball Things Tuesday why I think that conversation isn’t a real one yet, and how it can become a legit discussion.
If the bench to start the season is Seby Zavala, Canzone (or Mitch Haniger, however you look at the time share), Dylan Moore and Josh Rojas, the team’s backup centerfielder will be… nonexistent, really.
Moore has 102 innings there in five seasons, but don’t be surprised if Luke Raley ends up in center on the few days Julio Rodriguez gets a rest. One would imagine a designed day off for Rodriguez primarily is going to be versus right-handed pitching, suggesting an outfield including Raley and Canzone will be ideal, and Moore will not — assuming Haniger is available.
Raley and Moore are probably similarly-capable in center, though it comes more naturally for Raley, and the ballpark may be a factor too.While Blas Castano is an interesting arm, here’s that word again — context. Sunday, his two strikeouts were against Nerwilian Cedeño and Nathan Martorella. Who? Exactly. It’s a nice changeup, though.
Jhonathan Diaz has developed into a dark horse to make the club. He doesn’t throw that hard — he’s sitting mostly 89-90mph with his four-seamer this spring — but he hides the ball well and his slider is a high-spin type with very good movement profiles on both planes.
I think Joey Krehbiel’s cutter is a pitch to watch.
I believe Bryce Miller’s splitter is going to stick, and I’m not sure it needs to be limited to left-handed batters.
Rodriguez’s simplifications in the box may or may not make a significant difference for him, but in hearing the 23-year-old talk about his mechanics was refreshing from one standpoint: It was basic stuff. He knows he only needs to tinker, if anything. “Just to make sure that I don't have as much movement,” he said Saturday. “I'm a big guy, I don't need to do a lot to be able to drive the ball.”
This is maturity. Rodriguez clearly has a desire to be great. It would be easy to make complicated adjustments in order to make a jump in production. But he trusts his people, the club, and most importantly, his own abilities.He looked awful in his first few PAs, but Marlowe appears to have ironed out some of the balance and swing path problem he had on Day 1. Marlowe is best suited for a limited load and stride so he can get to good velocity. The power is at least average without much effort to hit the ball out of the ballpark. He drops the bat head pretty well.
Harry Ford’s defense has been a sizzling topic at times this spring. He’s gunned down a few runners and looked solid in all aspects in his time behind the dish. One scout I talked to Sunday said it “could just be a matter of time,” which jives with the general belief catchers take time to develop. Many times the player’s dedication to the position, or lack thereof, plays a large role in the end result. “This is a major reason prep catchers is the risky demo it is on the amateur side,” the scout added. In addition to it being, ya know, very difficult and taxing, the kids who hit end up seeing the light at the end of the tunnell, and there’s no crouching in that light.”
Catching also often delays a player’s arrival to the majors, so there’s mutual interest sometimes in moving the player off the position if the bat is going to play well elsewhere.
With Ford, at least for now, is a catcher for me, and should not spend too much time learning other positions. I’m not yet convinced the bat is special enough to afford the club the freedom to move him to a corner, which is very likely the next step defensively after catcher.
If Ford is the real-deal at catcher, what do you predict will happen with the Big Dumper who seems to be a big part of this team? Which one becomes trade-bait?