Five 'secondary' moves that shaped the Mariners' first playoff team in over 20 years, plus 3 reasons to believe in the club in October.
We all talk about the blockbuster deals and the marquee names attached to them. But the Mariners’ playoff drought ended because of a small handful of acquisitions and decisions that don’t stand out as much on their own as others.
Such as these:
Eugenio Suarez, 3B
Suarez was the “other’ piece in the big trade with the Cincinnati Reds over the winter, bringing the third baseman and outfielder Jesse Winker to Seattle in exchange for four players, including two Top-10 pitching prospects.
Suarez was the steadiest piece in the lineup all season, offering average defense, power (31 HR, tops on the team), and patience. In addition, the 30-year-old brought Good Vibes Only to life in Seattle, a significant improvement over the soggy efforts of Kyle Seager, who, despite being a liked player in the clubhouse was nothing more than a wet mop in effect.
Suarez ended up a 4.5-win player — something Seager hadn’t done since 2016, and he did it for $9 million less than Seager’s option would have cost the club.
**shrug**
Paul Sewald, RHR
When the Mariners signed Sewald to a minor league deal in January of 2021, no one talked about it — including me — and for good reason. It wasn’t a big deal.
Sewald started that season in Triple-A Tacoma before getting the nod in April and never looking back. The right-hander throws a rather ordinary fastball in terms of velocity, averaging 92-93 mph and topping out at the occasional 95.
But in two seasons he’s made 126 appearances, posting a 34.4% K rate, 8% walk rate. 2.89 ERA, 3.34 xFIP and a team-best 31 saves.
Sewald stabilized the bullpen last season, but it was a lot more than that as he became their most reliable late-inning options, despite his tendency to serve up the long ball.
He’s given up 10 homers this season, too, but it’s hard to argue with the rest of his numbers: Lefties are batting .168 off him, righties just .132, and his ability to strand runners remains very good, despite his strikeout rate falling to the range of merely good versus the sick numbers from a year ago.
Without Sewald’s consistency the last two season, the Mariners aren’t where they are, especially considering how volatile Diego Castillo has been this season.
And the Mariners got him for nothing.
Carlos Santana, 1B/DH
When the Mariners sent RHRs Wyatt Mills and William Fleming to Kansas City for Santana in late June, I was a bit disappointed the club didn’t just double down and get Josh Bell, or some other, better bat over Santana.
While I stand by that, Santana’s value cannot be summed up by his .182/.283/.401 slash with the Mariners.
The switch hitter has hit 15 homers since joining the club and have come in big situations and against big-time arms, including Justin Verlander, Alek Manoah, Gerrit Cole, Mike Clevinger, and Charlie Morton (2).
He’s had four 2-homer games, and nine of his homers came with runners on base.
Furthermore, 11 of Santana’s 15 long balls in a Mariners uniform either tied the game, gave the Mariners the lead, or extended a one-run lead, and a 12th brought the club to within a run after the sixth inning. Santana’s presence covered for the injury to Ty France, and helped bridge the lineip & clubhouse gap left by Mitch Haniger’s absence.
The triple-slash looks pretty bad, especially considering Santana’s defense and baserunning don’t make up for it at all, but he was essentially an average hitter on a team desperate for anything of the sort.
Cal Raleigh, C
The selection of Raleigh in Round 3 back in 2018 — the same draft the club landed Logan Gilbert in the first round — was huge, yes, but for this season the club’s decision to option Raleigh April 28 may have changed his season.
The Mariners started the 2022 season with three catchers as the league allowed for a 28-man roster to help alleviate injury and workload concerns thanks to the short sporing training brought on by the lockout. But Raleigh started 2-for-28 with nine strikeouts and just one extra-base hit, prompting the club to option him out after his 0-for-2, 2K showing April 27, and as part of the roster pairing.
He spent just 10 days in Triple-A Tacoma, batting .286/.333/.464 in seven games, but he corrected a timing issue that gave him a fighting chance when he was recalled May 7 to replace the injured Tom Murphy.
He spent the next 5 games in Seattle tweaking things, but has hit .221/.292/.515 with a 129 wRC+ since. Sometimes the decisions — and ability to make such a choice due to depth — to allow a player to make a fix in a more controlled, freer environment such as the minors, make a rather enormous impact. In this case, it changed the Mariners’ fortunes.
If they forced Raleigh to try and make adjustments of this nature versus major-league pitching with staff responsibilities and all, it probably takes a lot longer, and that’s assuming he ever gets it clicking to the level he did. The Mariners need the best of Raleigh, and they needed it as soon as possible or the season simply doesn’t work out the way it has.
Matt Brash, RHP & George Kirby, RHP
The timing of the club’s decision to pull Brash from the rotation wasn’t a savvy one, since he’d been struggling to get through even three innings, putting a ton of stress on the bullpen. But they did make it after the right-hander’s May 4 start at Houston, and replaced him with George Kirby.
Not only has Brash transitioned well to the bullpen, but Kirby has been a Top 25 pitcher in all of baseball since he debuted.
It would have been easy for the club to do one or two of the following:
1. Continue to go to Brash. It was very early and he has a tremendous arm. They could have pushed him back a day, skipped him once to reset, and given him a handful of additional starts. They didn’t, and it’s a good thing the club decided what it did when it did.
2. Summoned a short-term fix, such as Justus Sheffield or Darren McCaughan, to buy time. For a few times through the rotation they could have made sense of it, allowing them to control Kirby’s innings that much longer. But the season may have gotten out of hand with key offensive threats missing time and the club needing to scratch out wins by way of run prevention.
3. Piggbacking. The Mariners could have used Brash and Kirby, Brash and Sheffield/McCaughan, or Kirby and Sheffield/McCaughan as if they were one starter, but it wouldn’t have made the impact Kirby made by himself.
Instead, the Mariners called on their top pitching prospect and he’s been nothing short of fire, despite his most recent two outings.
Three Reasons the Mariners Can Win the Wild Card Series
Assuming the matchup is with the Toronto Blue Jays:
Pitching — they’re strength can shut down the strength of the Jays
The Mariners won five of seven versus Toronto this season, though none of those games came with either team full strength and in sync, so it’s not worth a whole lot when considering who has an advantage.
But Seattle does have the kind of pitching that can neutralize what has been the best lineup in the American League since the All-Star break — the Jays have been 50 runs better than the next-best offense since the break.
The Mariners’ rotation owns a 3.68 ERA for the season, a mark that improves to 3.56 since the acquisition of Luis Castillo, and when accounting for the top four starters is just 3.39, nearly three-quarters of a run better than the top four in the Jays rotation.
The clubs bullpen speaks for itself. If they’re rested and on their game, look for a full series (three games), and bet on fewer than 25 runs total.Built to win close games
Seattle has been built to win tight games, and it goes beyond the roster strengths. Scott Servais and his staff manage to the team’s strengths as well as any in the game, and I expect more small-ball style decisions in this series.
The Blue Jays want to bash the ball around the yard and win 7-4. It’s how they do it more often than not. Seattle prefers the close games decided late. This isn’t to say the Jays’ bullpen isn’t tough — it is. It’s just not quite as deep as the Mariners’, and if it becomes a game of bullpens Seattle likely wins.Seattle has an advantage in Game
Of course, they have to win one of the first two contests for this to matter, but the Mariners can toss out Kirby or Gilbert (or both) in Game 3 against presumably Ross Stripling for the Jays. Stripling has been good in 2022, but their backup — Jose Berrios — and bullpen aren’t as deep. The Jays will have a big home-field advantage, so they’ll rightfully be favored, but if Seattle can weather the storm of the crowd by starting fast this is a very winnable series.