Mariners' path to better baseball isn't trades, but here are three trade targets I like for the summer
The Mariners' fixes aren't external additions, but they do need some help via the trade wire.
The Seattle Mariners have been a very up-and-down club so far in 2023. Some ups, some downs, some middling performances. Such an equation has led them directly to a mediocre win-loss at the quarter point, and the primary culprit has been an inconsistent offense.
Acquiring new players probably has to be part of the story the rest of the way, but the key to the season is simpler than that.
Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez, and Teoscar Hernandez have to be better than they have been thus far. And they don’t have to be superstars. If all three were 90% of what they were a year ago, the Mariners’ team wRC+ would be 10-14% better, depending on exact playing time and the butterfly effect.
Seattle enters the three-game series in Atlanta with a 95 wRC+, which means they have been 5% below average thus far. They’ve scored 4.46 runs per game, which ranks No. 15 in baseball, just ahead of the Houston Astros.
An average offense is OK, and can get you to the postseason, as the Mariners proved a year ago when they were No. 18 in runs scored. But it creates very little margin for error and leaves the club vulnerable to pitchig health and a lot of other clubs breathing down their necks — at best.
There are dozens of possible names the club could consider over the summer if they head out onto the trade market and look for offensive help. But I warn thee of a two things here, and offer a more rational, realistic, and sustainable roster-building scenario
For one, don’t expect the acquisition of star. Star hitters rarely are moved at the trade deadline, and when they are it’s overwhelmingly a rental situation with the player slated for free agency in November.
Secondly, forget the Paul Goldschmidt thing. It’s not happening. He’s 35, signed through next season, and the St. Louis Cardinals aren’t trading the defending MVP for prospects when their core is built to win now. They’d be demanding packages including Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, and then some.
It’s also worth noting the majority of the Mariners’ best prospect ammo is two-plus years from the majors, rendering their value shy of what it generally takes to acquire such impact bats.
But that doesn’t mean the club can’t get markedly better offensive by way of trades this summer.
On the Baseball Things podcast we’ve discussed literally dozens of names. The Trade Target Index (exclusively for Baseball Things subscribers) boasts several of them right now, and the list grows every few weeks. Among those we’ve talked about:
Seth Brown, Mike Yastrzemski, Brandon Lowe, and J.D. Davis. All of whom could make sense to one degree or another. But right now my favorite scenario involves the Mariners adding two players, not one. Neither a surefire everyday option, but both offering impact depth and balance without robbing the top of the farm system.
Seattle’s offensive weapons are very right-handed, and comes with a lot of swing and miss. Enter Charlie Blackmon.
Blackmon is 36 and in the final year of his six-year, $113 million contract woth the Colorado Rockies. He’s a high-contact, line-drive hitter without detrimental splits. He’s a fringe defender in an outfield corner, but wouldn’t beneeded there with any regularity. He’s hit plenty well away from Coors Field, and has had a solid season in 2023, owning a 105 wRC+. His average power from the left side plays fine at T-Mobile Park.
Theoretically, Blackmon takes PAs away from from players such as Sam Haggerty and perhaps to a lesser extent Taylor Trammel. The best part is Blackmon won’t require a pricey trade package to acquire. Two years ago, Joc Pederson cost the Atlanta Braves 1B/DH prospect Bryce Ball. Perhaps the Mariners equivalent of Robert Perez Jr., or Zach DeLoach.
Trammell has tallied 34 plate appearances in the bigs after returning from a leg injury. He’s batting .143/.294/.464 with three homers. He’s running an unsustainably-high walk rate of nearly 18%, and has fanned 35% of the time, which is in line with his 329-PA major-league career.
Haggerty has tallied 38 plate appearances (none as the DH), and hasn’t been able to replicate his success from a year ago. He’s at .147/.237/.176 for the year, and none of the splits suggest it’s due to his usage. He’s just not hitting, at least not yet.
But Haggerty was supposed to be more of a platoon bat anyway, facing some left-handed pitchers in place of Kolten Wong, Jarred Kelenic, or in pinch hitting spots.
Blackmon, in theory, could share a lineup spot with A.J. Pollock — if Pollock starts to hit, because aside from the long ball he’s done next to nothing to warrant confidence to date.
President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto and GM Justin Hollander have a very limited track record when it comes to rentals. But when the club has a chance to win, sometimes that’s the route you go to avoid trading away future pieces. Last summer, the club added rentals such as Matthew Boyd, Jake Lamb, and Curt Casali. But there will be an opportunity to acquire one like Blackmon, a hitter with a much better chance to help the club. Seattle may believe that player is Trammell, or even Cade Marlowe, but chances are it’s not. Trading DeLoach for two-plus months of a bat like Blackmon is a sound plan. And it doesn’t have to be Blackmon. I like Yastrzemski plenty. But he’d cost more as a player with multiple control years remaining.
But the second player in this summer formula is the principium of my thought process.
Aside from a hitter that can DH and perhaps play a bit of OF, the Mariners could use a capable hitter who can manage at an infield spot or two. Maybe a third baseman to spell Suarez once a week, keeping the 31-year-old fresh and allowing him to spend a few days at DH, the club’s preferred strategy with the DH role. Maybe this player can play a bit of first or second base, too.
Enter Nick Senzel.
Now, this one is more of a risk, but it also comes with a bigger payoff. Senzel, the former No. 2 overall pick (2016), has never hit with consistency in the majors. But he’s always made contact and drawn enough walks to tantalize the Cincinnati Reds. The 27-year-old is off to a pretty intriguing start to 2023, batting .275/.351/.441.
He’s a right-handed hitter, so it’s not the perfect match for Suarez at third, but Senzel is a more-than-capable third-base glove, and can hadle second base (in a pinch) and the outfield, too. He’s controlled through 2025 and is earning just under $2 million for the entire 2023 campaign.
If we look up in July and Senzel continues to show legitimate big-league quality offensive production, he’ll make sense for the Mariners, even more so than did Brandon Drury a year ago.
The risk here is the shallow track record of Senzel’s bat. But by July it’ll be half a season of sample, and I am generally encouraged by hitters who make contact (19.9% career strikeouts) and use the whole field.
Senzel’s profile is a lot like that of Ty France, as the physical tools (aside from Senzel’s clear advanatge in athleticism), are also similar.
The trade cost for Senzel, you ask? Good question. We’re assuming the Reds are willing to discuss the player due to their rebuilding process and lack of chances to contend throughout this season, but compensation is another story, and quite a tricky one.
I don’t see Senzel, the version that maintains an above-average offensive profile into July, being star-level expensive, but it’s two-plus years of cheap salaried club control for a player who might very well be blossoming into an average regular, or super sub. Senzel isn’t going to be free, and he’s not attainable for a squeaky, tone deaf cover of Tina Turner’s ‘Simply The Best’.
If I’m the Reds — and just in case you aren’t sure, I am not — I want at least one young starting pitcher in a deal for Senzel. If I’m the Mariners I’d certinly be willing to discuss righty Michael Morales, and any prospect outside the Top 10-15 range.
Emerson Hancock and Bryan Woo are off limits here … unless the Reds want to sweeten the deal and eliminate the need for Blackmon. Whoa, now this is an idea.
TJ Friedl is a plus-plus runner with above-average outfield defensive skills — including CF ability — and a chance to hit for average. He’s a bit old old for a player with under 450 career PAs in the bigs (27), but flashed some pop last season and is showing out in 2023. He’s a lefty stick complement to the Mariners’ current choices.
He’s also controlled through 2028 and has options, the kind of player the Mariners (and let’s be honest, all clubs) prefer to acquire.
[NOTE: Friedl just went on the IL with an oblique strain.]
A Mariners club with Senzel and Friedl, a healthy Dylan Moore (who begins a rehab assignment in Everett Thursday), and at least 90% of full-form Rodriguez, Suarez, and Hernandez, with their current pitching staff and what’s coming later this summer, sure looks like a playoff team capable of doing real damage deep into October.
But it starts with the aforementioned trio. They have to hit more or no acquisitions the Mariners could possibly make this summer are going to save them from coming up short of their potential in 2023.