Mariners Player Analysis at the All-Star Break

It's been a wild 2022, both at the team level and for just about every player on the roster -- in one way or another. Let's talk about all of them.

The Seattle Mariners reached the All-Star break in pretty good position. They creeped back above .500, are in the thick of the Wild Card races, plural, in the American League, and expect to get key players off the IL in a week or two, including Kyle Lewis and Mitch Haniger.

Here’s what I’m thinking about the most with the 26 players currently on the 26-man roster, plus key players expected to return post-break.

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Starting Rotation

Robbie Ray
Ray bounced back in a big way following five straight starts allowing three runs or more from May 15 in New York through June 6 in Houston. While most are zigging with Ray’s reintriduction of his two-seam fastball, I’m looking at how the two-seamer has helped his four-seamer, a pitch he’s still throwing about 25% of the time.

Both fastballs are inducing swings and misses, however — somewhere between 34-42% — and the four-seamer is still more often his finishing pitch — 27% vs 24% for the slider, 25% for the two-seamer.

But the two-seamer is getting ground balls, too — his overall GB% is up to 51% his past six outings versus the 36% rate prior to the two-seam usage.

Ray’s slider has gotten more effective, too, in and of itself, thanks to better command and steady to slightly increasing spin rates.

The new repertoire gives Ray a better ability to get outs on contact so he doesn’t need the strikeout as much, but he’s increased his overall K rate, too, from 26% before the two-seamer to 31% after. Ray, the Cy Young winner a year ago in the junior circuit, posted a 32.1% strikeout rate a year ago, so 26% represented quite the drop. Now it’s back to levels we all expected, he’s getting more outs once contact is made and is on quite the run as the ace the club hoped to get when they signed him over the winter.

The Mariners, with this version of Ray, have a chance to beat any club and any starting pitcher, including Gerrit Cole and the New York Yankees, Justin Verlander and the Houston Astros, or any other ace-club combo out there.

Logan Gilbert
Gilbert has actually struggled a bit, relatively speaking, since he beat the Los Angeles Angels June 19. Hes yielded 12 earned runs on 32 hits in those four starts, including six home runs.

The velocity is up, but the secondaries have lost some effectiveness because he’s not throwing them in good spots and too often they are non-competitive offerings, allowing hitters back into counts, or giving them favorables ones.

The right-hander’s fastball has averaged 96.5 mph his last four starts, but his control has waned and he’s been giving up too many hard hit balls all season (46.6%). Earlier he was minimizing the damage, yielding fewer extra-base hits (6 HR in first 14 starts) and issuing fewer bases on balls.

Look for a refreshed Gilbert to get back to attacking and commanding his fastball after the break, perhaps with higher usage of his curveball and/or changeup.

Marco Gonzales
I’ll continue to doubt how often the lefty can give this club six or more with three runs or fewer on the board as long as he continues to miss at such a low rate.

Only six times over the last 15 seasons has a qualified starter failed to strike out at least 15% of the batters he faced or induce at least 50% ground balls still produced a league average ERA or FIP. Gonzales, whose strikeout rate has been hovering at 12% all year, has increased his ground ball rates (up to 46%) of late, but not the level that might make up for the lack of missing bats.

As a result, opponents are batting .261 off him — 29 points higher than a year ago, 39 points higher than 2020, but right around his career mark — and too much damage is being done. Gonzalez's’ season-long ERA is 3.50, though his FIP, xERA, and XFIP all are closer to 5.00.

Gonzales’ stuff just isn’t very good; His fastball has lost velocity at about a half-tick per year for four straight seasons (now at 88.0 mph, down from 91.7 mph in 2017, the year Seattle acquired him), and the naked eye report suggests his command is closer to ordinary than every before. But he has regained fastball value this season. It’s his other pitches that aren’t cutting it.

Opponents, versus Gonzales’ changeup, cutter, and curveball, are batting .284 with 10 HR.

Statcast doesn’t help Gonzales’ cause, either. His hard-hit rate is about league average, but his walk rate has climbed again in 2022 to neary 8%.

His game never has been to miss bats, but when he was hovering between 17% and 23% (2020) with a 5-6.5% rate of bases on balls, it was easy to see how he could consistently be league average. Now, not so much. He’s done it via ERA, but eventually that;s going to catch up to him without improved pitch value, and/or better command, especially with the secondaries.

Chris Flexen
Flexen, in some ways, is a lot like Gonzales; he doesn’t load up on strikeouts and usually does just enough to get through six innings.

But Flexen’s ground ball rate has taken a nosedive from 42.4% in 2021 to 32.7% this season. He’s also issuing walks over 8% of the time versus 5.4% last year. The righty enters the post-break slate with a 4.39 FIP (league average, essentially), a 3.79 ERA, a 5.00 xERA and 4.97 xFIP — like Gonzales, the metrics don’t like him much.

Remember, raw, traditional ERA is a team stat. The defense can, and often is, responsible for a considerable portion of the runs allowed. But it’s important to note there are pitchers with the ability to outpitch their FIP regularly. The problem is, there’s not much evidence over the long haul a pitcher can outperform his xFIP by wide margins.

Flexen is a bit perplexing to me. He throws a four-seamer at 90-93 mph, occasionally hitting 95. It’s straight, so it’s as hittable as any fastball in the majors. Opponents are batting .314 with a .521 slugging percentage off the pitch, and Flexen is getting whiffs on just 14% of them.

His best pitch metrically is the changeup, which he’s thrown 15% of the time this season (.197 BAA, .311 SLG), and just 6% to right-handed batters. But he’s introduced a slider this season (8% to RHB, 1-for-19, no XBH) that has helped.

Flexen’s cutter is simply thrown too often (36%) considering the damage it allows (.295 BAA), but until he’s comfortable throwing more sliders, curveballs, and changeups, he has to stick with the cutter to keep bats off the fastball (47% usage). He has done a better job creating vertical break with the cutter, which appears to be why he’s kept the ball in the ballpark with it.

But he’s perplexing to me because it looks like he should be better. The curveball is of the high-spin variety, his changeup is getting results, the slider, which he’s always had but never thrown much — and not at all last season — shows promise. What is Chris Flexen? Not sure we know, still. But I do know this: He doesn’t miss bats or induce ground balls enough to survive all the hard contact (41.2%, 5% above average), and the high barrel rate (10.2% vs. 6.7% league average). Like Gonzales, it appears he’s a No. 5 starter in a contending rotation, and that’s it.

George Kirby
Most of KIrby’s pre-break performance was very good, and how much he gets to pitch over the final 10-plus weeks depends on how the club wants to handle his workload in Year 1. He’s thrown 91 innings between the minors and majors, and PoBops Jerry Dipoto has noted on multiple occasions they see a roughly-similar handling of Kirby as with Logan Gilbert a year ago.

But there are some differences between Gilbert’s 2021 and Kirby’s 2022. First, Gilbert’s season did not start until May 7 (Tacoma), and he finished the season with 124.1 innings combined over just under five months.

Kirby’s season began April 8 in Double-A Arkansas, meaning an identical pace would be Kirby reaching 124.1 innings total by the end of August. That’s 33.1 innings away, roughly 5-6 starts.

Conceivably, the Mariners could take Kirby through September on regular rest and get to about 160 innings total and not be out of bounds regarding the Gilbert management in 2021. Kirby threw just 67.1 innings last season, and adding 80-plus to that this season sounds a bit more aggressive than is necessary.

But, Gilbert had merely alternate site sessions on the books prior to last season, so if all else was equal Kirby is actually better set up to throw more innings this season than Gilbert last year.

I don’t getthe sense we’re going to see the Mariners get aggressive with Kirby, but I also believe on the conservative side they will play it start-by-start.

Kirby has sat 94-97 mph with his fastball so far, touching 99, and the results on the pitch are strong (.239 BAA, .288 SLGA, 26.6% whiff). While he’s comfortable throwing the slider, its been the pitch hit he hardest — 4 HR, .362 BAA — and his command of it waned after a strong first two outings with it. His changeup (10%, 18% whiff) is useful and I wish he throw it a little more often, and his curveball (14%, 12% whiff) has flashed plus, and I hope he starts using it more, too.

For the record, Kirby’s status being a bit unknown regarding his availability is a reason the Mariners need rotation help, but not the reason.

Bats

Julio Rodriguez
Not sure what else can be said for the 21-year-old phenom, who is taking the game by storm in 2022. He’s the leading rookie of the year candidate in the American League, is the leadoff batter and best player on a contending team, is holding down center field, and may be on his way to a 30-30 season (16 HR, 21 SB).

Rodriguez would like to swing and miss less, because it is a bit high, but not worrisome, since he’s 21, a rookie, and it’s really the lone blemish on his first season. Even his 26.8% strikeout rate is acceptable considering the power and production, and in case you’re a BABIP goon shouting into the ether his .345 batting average on balls in play is unsustainable, I have a trip shut-up stats for you to suck on: 51% hard-hit rate, 14.3% barrel rate, 92.1 mph average exit velocity. All are elite. Rodriguez is batting .345 on balls in play because he’s hitting those balls harder than you hit the books, and if you don’t know better you shouldn’t be using stats to back any argument, let alone one about the city’s pride and joy, so, well, fuck off.

Maybe the most remarkable statistic about Julio’s season so far: Of the pitches he’s put in play, just 14.7% of them are considered ‘soft’ hit. The league average is nearly 17%. The league average for batters with average exit velocities over 90 mph: 18.9%.

There will be ups and downs, but Julio is a premium talent that’s handled everything thrown his way. He’s put on a show for Mariners fans.

Jesse Winker
Winker has had the weirdest season. He began 2022 a career .285/.380/.480 hitter (134 wRC+), and had a career year in 2021 (148 wRC+, 24 HR, .305/.394/.556).

April/May: .213/.312/287

He had none extra-base hits in 202 PAs at this point.

Since then: .252/.376/.435, 12 XBH in 157 PA

Since June 15: .286/.394/.476 (right on his career line), 8 XBH in 99 PAs

He’s a 40-45 glove in left who will catch all he gets to and doesn’t make many mistakes, and he’s a 35-grade runner who plays it safe.

Seattle needs the power trend to continue, and the walks (14.2%, 5th in MLB) to hang around as they compete after the break.

Eugenio Suarez
Suarez has improved upon his 2020 and 2021 season by looking to drive the ball rather than lift it, and use a little more of the field. As a result, his pop-up rates are down, line-drive rates are up a little bit, and he’s a little tougher to pitch to and defend, so his hard-hit balls are dropping for hits more often.

But this is a thin thread, since his barrel and hard-hit rates are essentially the same and he’s actually striking out nearly 2% more.

He’s an average glove at third base, and a bat that fits best in te 7-hole, where he may be batting once Kyle Lewis and Mitch Haniger are added to the active roster.

J.P. Crawford
I’m not down on Crawford, but I still don’t like the swing, and still don’t buy he’s markedly better than a year ago. He also doesnt have to be. He’s still average-plus considering his 9.4% walk rate and contact skills that have led to a .345 OBP (league: .312).

I sure wish they could find a way for J.P. to get the barrel out front a little more often without it being fly-ball oriented. But he doesn’t have great bat speed, and his hands have a little too far to travel than is ideal, so here we are.

He’s rebounded from an off start defensively — few too many miscues — and is a fine baserunner with 55 speed.

The Mariners also have been forced to use Crawford in every spot in the order this season, including 12 starts in the leadoff spot, 24 in the three-hole, 17 batting cleanup, and 17 batting 5th, none of which are where he truly belongs, an inconsistency and usage pattern which isn’t conducive to player success.

I don’t think we’ve quite seen the best of J.P. in 2022 just yet, however, which is a good sign for the final 10 weeks for a club that will need all it can get from every last player.

Adam Frazier
Frazier has been up and down all year, mostly down, but prior to he break had finally made an adjustment that was working (.366/.372/.463, 142 wRC+ over the last 11 games).

We’ve talked a lot about finding a splits partner for Frazier (Brandon Drury, Jonathan Schoop), but unless the price falls significantly — I was told the Reds wanted a Top 100 prospect for Drury — the club is fine leaving the position to what they have in-house, considering a few of the bench efforts they’ve received in matchup-style situations (more on that later).

Should the club grab more infield help, Frazier can then serve as a pinch hitter or games he doesn’t start, and not just for the player that replaced him that day in the starting lineup, since he’s playable in an outfield corner, too.

Cal Raleigh
Raleigh, essentially, is having the season the club hoped Jarred Kelenic would have. The second-year backstop has a 116 wRC+ boosted mostly by power, but he’s also drawn walks at a 10% clip, and his 29.5% strikeout rate for the season has been down around 26% since the end of May.

But where Raleigh isn’t getting enough credit is on the defensive side, where he’s a good framer, at least an average thrower, has improved a ton at blocking balls in the dirt, and right in front of our eyes is becoming his player comp, Jason Varitek, in terms of leading and working well with the pitching staff.

Since May 23, Raleigh is batting .243/.311/.527 with 10 homers, 10 doubles a triple, and it all tolls in a 138 wRC+. He’s been one of the game’s best catchers during that span.

Ty France
All-Star Ty France — has a nice ring to it, right? — is so steady in his production at the plate, we forget when he goes on a power outage, and almost don’t notice when he’s on fire.

France has taken his game up a level this season, batting .308/.376/.470 with 11 homers and a 148 wRC+ versus the .291/.368/.445, 129 he tossed up last season, his first full season in the big leagues.

Again derailed by an injury, France was on his way to a 25-homer season. But there’s still more in the tank. France’s swing will continue to mature, and if he finds a way to get to the barrel more we may see him surpass 30 homers and slug over .500. Until then, he’ll hit .300 or better, creep toward a .400 OBP, and essentially do his best early-Edgar impression (1990-91, ages 27-28, Martinez batted .305/.401/.443).

He’s good enough at first, and sometimes very good, but for the love of all that is positive and apparent, please stop talking about starting Ty France at second base.

Carlos Santana
I still believe the Mariners should have gone bigger when they made the deal for Santana, but there’s no arguing he’s helped. Santana had four homers in 212 PAs for the Royals prior to the trade, and has four in 69 PAs with Seattle, including a two-homer effort July 10 versus the Toronto Blue Jays.

He’s kept up his walk rate with the Mariners — 14.5% — and has K’d just 18.8% of the time — but he’s batting just .224 with one double. Ideally, Santana isn’t necessary on an everyday basis once the club gets beyond the trade deadline, but injuries happen, so there’s a great chance Santana gets key PAs down the stretch for a team trying to break a two-decade plus playoff drought, when maybe it could have been Josh Bell (.311/.390/.504) or a player with more defensive versatility.

Santana, however, as he’s shown thus far, is capable of hot streaks, and the moment will never be too big for him.

Luis Torrens
Torrens’ power has disappeared and if it’s not the shoulder, I haven’t the second clue why.

He’s actually hitting .279 over his last 45 PAs. but his time on the IL (June 27-July 12 has limited his appearances, and still no power.

A year ago, Torrens slugged .431 and hit 15 homers, barreling up 10.4% of the time. In 2022 he’s down to 2.7% barrels. His overall hard-hit rare is fine, but he is striking out more this season by 6.6%.

I’m inclined to leave the catcher’s spot alone, since Torrens has been OK defensively, and even flashing average to above-average in some areas over small samples, but if there is an injury here Dipoto might consider leasing out veteran catcher for a few months.

Still, I’m curious what the break may have done for Torrens’ swing work, because for large chunks of games of last season he was one of, if not the, best hitter in the lineup. Don’t believe me? Here are two where only France or Haniger was better:

June 15-END of 2021 season, wRC+ for Mariners
1. France, 145
2. Torrens, 121
3. Haniger, 117
4. Crawford, 102
5. Murphy, 101
6. Seager, 100

August 24-End of 2021
1. Haniger, 125
2. Torrens, 124

Dylan Moore
Moore, the owner of the worst swing on the roster, has actually been good in a lot of ways this season; defense at four positions (2B, LF, RF, SS), baserunning (11 SB, 1.7 BsR), getting on base (.339 OBP), and hitting for power (12 of 25 hits are for extra bases). He’s just not hitting in general (.188 AVG).

Moore’s fly ball rate is atrociously high (57.1%) for a hitter of his ilk. which results in a very low line-drive rate of 14.3%. He strikes out too much still (29%), but he doesn’t swing and miss a ton (9%). Moore has been opportunistic with his contact, barreling up at a 14.9% rate, but it’s big or go home for the most part with an infield fly rate of nearly 17%.

It’s the swing, mostly, with a collapsing back side, but it’s primarily his hands this year. There are signs Moore has actually been a bit lucky on balls in play, despite his .250 BABIP, mainly suggested by the fact he has an infield hit rate of 8.3% (league is at 6.7%).

Moore is what he is, which is a 26th man. The problem, the club has three of those right now, and Moore is probably the most reliable of the three — and certainly the most versatile. I still think once his career is over we’ll look back at one full season and go “whoa, whatever he was doing here was working,” and the physical tools all support more offensive production.

Ideally, Moore is at best a two-starts-a-week option at second base (versus lefties), and a late-inning replacement for running or defense in close games. But he’s on pace for nearly 300 PAs due to injuries, suspensions, and struggles of veterans that all appear headed in the right direction.

Abraham Toro
Toro simply hasn’t hit this season and must be the second player removed from the 26-man as players get healthy. First is Justin Upton. Toro has options left, and right now I favor two othernon-catcher benchies over Toro in terms of overall value to the club.

Having said that, I still really like Toro as a utility bat. It’s just not happenign right now. We’ll see if he’s made an adjustment over the break, but the Mariners cannot afford to sit and wait much longer. He may get another 20-50 PAs before Kyle Lewis and/or Mitch Haniger are activated, and even if he hits .300 with pop over that stretch I’m not sure he’d deserve to stay over some of the other options.

A stint in Triple-A Tacoma could help Toro make said fix, if he hasn’t already, and I’d also like to see him extend his defensive spectrum to the outfield, and that should occur in Tacoma, not in the majors. We know he can play second, third, first, now show me left field, at least.

And no, he doesn’t need to scrap switch hitting. He’s actually been better as a righty this season (24% better than LH) and has always done enough there to warrant staying the course. His swing has gotten a little long and loopy from the left side and his timing has been off on a very high percentage of his balls in play, combinin to generate a ton of fly balls and ground balls and few line drives and hard-hit balls. Stuck in the middle, exactly.

He’s still making a lot of contact (16.7% K rate), walks enough (7.3%) and has some semblance of a track record of production in the minors and majors, so there’s no need to consider ditching him, but he’s essentially Moore without the defensive or baserunning value right now. Toro must lead with his bat and, in my opinion, get the outfield on his resume.

Justin Upton
Upton has nothing left, really. Yes, he hit a huge homer during the current run, but the bat speed is gone and he brings no value in the field or on the bases, and truly is a liability in all areas of the game.

It’s understandable he’s still on the roster, considering the club’s situation, and having a veteran over a rookie is sensible, but there’s no evidence whatsoever warranting Upton playing over anyone else on the roster no matter the pitching matchup, and this should be remedied by DFA’ing the former No. 1 pick as soon as one of the IL’d right-handed bats return.

Sam Haggerty
Yes, all these bench scenarios include Haggerty. Hags does as much for the club as Moore, and should be utilized as such. He’s the quickest player on the team, offers at least 60-grade speed, instincts in the outfield and on the bases, a capable switch hitter who’s seeing the ball well right now and Seattle should take advantage of it.

He’s a better hitter from the right side historically, but I’m not sure he doesn’t have more upside as a lefty, because the swing plane generates more loft, and despite being a smaller player the bat speed supports fringe-average power numbers.

Mitch Haniger
Mitch is a 40-45 defender, but no one should care that much. He’s a grinder atthe plate and was the anchor of the lineup a year ago. His re-addition to this lineup is enormous and truly may serve as the best pickup any contending club makes this summer.

It’s really that simple.

Kyle Lewis
If you told me Lewis was going to stay healthy and get 250 PAs after the break, I’d say he hits 15 homers and the Mariners end the playoff drought. If you told me Haniger was also going to get 250 PAs, I’d say the club wins 90-plus and wins the No. 1 Wild Card in the American League.

Nothing (else) out of the ordinary would have to take place for the Mariners to land there if these two somehow … do something out of the ordinary and stay healthy.

Bullpen

Andrés Muñoz
Munoz has had a terrific season, posting a 40% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate, 2.68 FIP, 2.06 xERA, and a 1.93 xFIP. He’s induced a swinging strike rate of 20.6%. The one blemish is the five homers, but he hasn’t allowed one since June 10.

The most fascinating part of his season, for me, is the increase in is slider velocity. You may have seen me tweet his 94 mph slider a few weeks back. Well, he’s done that a few times, and his slider velo has jumped three ticks since April (86.4 mph to 89.1 mph in July), and has had appearances where the slider has been 89-92, topping at 93-94.

The Mariners want it firmer, so I imagine around 90 on average is optimal.

The righty’s slider helps his fastball, which started the year with huge velo but not a lot of ride and run, but the four-seamer is now performing better on its own, too. It’s still 99-100 mph, topping out at 103, but the spin is up 5% since the start of the year, and the results reflect such.

Batters went 4-for-5 on Muñoz’s heater in April, hit .471 in May when putting the fastball in play, but are just 6-for-30 since.

But that slider? 51% whiff rate. It’s filthy, and he’s been the club’s best fireman with runners on base in tight situations.

Paul Sewald
Sewald is Sewald. An energy arm with above-average fastball results despite average velocity. It’s the deception and angles, but that four-seamer has hop, too, and he’s at his best when he commands it up on the zone and couples with the sweepier version of his plus slider.

When he has everything together he’s as tough to hit as anyone in the game, but because he tops out around 94-95 and usually sits 92-93, a flat, poorly-placed fastball or floating slider is very hittable, explaining the five homers he’s yielded so far in 2022.

Still, Sewald has become reliable, has a short memory, and has a chance to be one of the more beloved Mariners in recent memory if he closes out a clincher, pounds his chest and screams with emotion into the night.

Yeah, I’ve though a bit about what the ideal playoff clincher should look like, and Sewald closing out a 2-1 game over the Anaheim (you’re Anaheim until you’re not an embarrassment, ya dirty animals!) Angels is my preference.

Keeping Sewald and the rest of the bullpen fresh is key to the post-break slate, which is why Dipoto is hot after rotation help for the stretch.

Diego Castillo
Castillo has been on a really nice run since he served up two earned runs to the Red Sox in Boston May 20, allowing just three earned runs on nine hits over 22.1 innings. During that span he’s walked eight and fanned 23. The lone home run was to Mike Trout in extras June 18.

But Castillo’s slider still worries me a bit. It often breaks early and shows cement-mixer traits, though often enough thus far the location and velocity differential between his two pitches serves as enough to keep the barrel off the pitch.

Since his run began, he has mixed in a few more four-seamers — twice as many, to be exact — and his sinker has been more valuable (10-for-23 in April/May, 4-for-15 in June/July), which helps the high-usage slider dominate (.151 BAA, .163 SLGA).

Falling behind is a bugaboo for a lot of pitchers, and Castillo has done that too often in 2022, walking 11% of the batters he’s faced (16 in 35.1 innings). When he’s behind in the count, opponents are hitting .478 with a .712 slugging. When Castillo gets ahead 0-1: .186/.226/.186; After any two-strike count: .141/.218/.155

The more valuable that fastball, the better for Castillo, no matter the count, but it’ll always come down to his slider quality and the command of the pitch.

Erik Swanson
Swanson, part of the James Paxton trade with the New York Yankees after the 2018 season, appears to have found a home and a role in the club’s bullpen. His 35-5 K%-BB% is elite, he’s inducing swinging strikes at a 17% clip and he’s done a good job keeping the ball in the yard, despite fly-ball stuff.

But unlike some relievers having similar seasons, Swanson hasnt relied on defense or randomness to post a 1.04 ERA. He’s also put up a 2.54 xFIP, has held batters to a below league average hard-hit rate, and his 25.4% soft-hit mark suggests it’s not all about strikeouts.

The key has been control — the general ability to throw strikes, as evidenced by his 5% walk rate — and Swanson’s pitchability in hitter’s counts. He’s come back into counts very well; Start 1-0, get to 1-1, get to 2-0, get to 2-2, go 3-0 or 3-1, get back in the count and throw the slider and splitter for strikes so the batter cannot sit fastball. This has been enormous for Swanson, whose fastball is above-average, despite rather ordinary reliever velocity at 94 mph. But he’s able to do this because of the split-finger he’s developed.

Swanson has reduced his fastball usage for the second straight season (55% vs. 74% in 2020). Batters have managed just two hits off the splitter and seven off the fastball (despite throwing it 30% more often than either offspeed pitch). Overall, it’s the slider that has held him back (.364 BAA).

I wonder if he starts throwing it less often post-break, despite traditionally that being a better option vesus right-handed batters. Those same righties have seen just nine splitters this season, but are 0-for-4 when putting it in play.

Swanson’s splitter has been his difference-maker this season. A year ago, lefties hit .234 with a .406 slugging off him overall. In 2020, left-handed batters hit .353 with a .588 slugging, and in 2019 they posted a .600 slugging (Swanson started most of this season).

In 2022, the poor saps are batting .170 with a .234 slugging percentage and have struck out in 22 of 49 plate appearances (45%). Off the splitter itself, lefties are 2-for-23 with a 31% swinging strike rate.

I say throw it a bit more versus right-handed batters and see what happens.

Matthew Festa
Festa is a completely differet pitcher since he had UCL surgery.

He was throwing 92-93 mph with no meaningful ride or run and his slider was flat and potentially too firm for its shape. Fast forward and…

Festa owns a 38% strikeout rate entering play Friday and has lived 92-94 mph with a four-seamer that has induced more swing-and-miss than the velo suggests, thanks to good carry. His spin rates on both pitches are a bit better, but he’s finishing with snap and staying closed for longer, offering some deception in the arm path.

There was a time I shook my head when folks talked about Festa as a prospect beause I’d never seen him actually look good. He’s been pretty good all season in 2022, and if he’s your seventh or eighth reliever your relief corps is elite, because he can miss bats and throw strikes consistently.

festa flat out belongs in the majors.

Penn Murfee
Murfee lacks the raw stuff of the relievers mentioned before him — and after him — but he’s basically Sewald with little less velo and a longer, slurvier slider.

It’s worked.

It’s a 45-grade fastball — 30-35 on velo (89.2 mph), and 55 on movement — but no one is hitting consistently (.220 BAA, .360 SLGA), but opponents are further baffled on his slider (.132 BAA, .263 SLGA). I’m not sure how long he can keep up this particular pace, but he’s pounded the zone — 5.7% BB, 69% strikes — using his low three-quarter arm angle and a lot of deception and late life on his pitches to more than just get by.

At the end of the day, he’s replaced Drew Steckenrider and then some, though at the end of the day Murfee likely is just a middle reliever in the mold of many other sidearm/submarine types such as Joe Smith and Steve Cishek (both former Mariners, just saying).

But Scott Servais doesn’t hesitate to use Murfee in key spots, and neither would I versus right-handed batters: 9-for-92 (.107 BAA, .250 SLGA).

Matt Brash
As a starter we saw merely flashes of what Brash’s stuff can do. We’re going to see that more in relief.

He’s up to 100 mph with the four-seamer (96.3 AVG overall, 98.1 as a reliever), and it appears he’s chosen the slider as his primary breaking ball, which has yielded excellent results since his recall.

The noticeable different with Brash is the delivery. It’s a little bit more linear, and he’s clearly not making an effort to pave himself in the slightest, nor should he. Even in the rotation he was rarely hit hard.

With Brash it’s all about the ability to throw strikes and stay out of the danger zones, because even triple digits can be hit 450 feet,and the early returns are good enough there. Whether he’s turned a corner remains to be seen, but the role change isn’t a magic pill, and doesn’t automatically impriove a pitcher’s ability to do anything.

He has trust to earn, but the raw stuff is the best in the organization (the slider is far and away the pitch with the most upside throughout the entire org), and I’m still not convinced his changeup isn’t worth keeping around, too.

Brash is just learning how to use it all versus big-league bats. Once he does, we might be looking at prime K-Rod.

Ryan Borucki
Borucki was DFA’d by the Blue Jays at the end of May and has yielded three runs in 12.2 innings for Seattle, including seven straight scoreless appearances.

The stuff is solid, starting with a two-seamer featuring sink and ASR, and it’s up to 97 mph and consistently 94-96. The slider is a classic lefty sweeper, but it’s firm at nearly 88 mph. He’ll occasionally offer up a mid-80s changeup with mixed results, but Ryan, I’m interested.

He gets ground balls at a 52% clip so far, and if he throws strikes he’s a weapon out of the pen versus lefties (.154 VAA, .231 SLGA).

Field Staff

Scott Servais & Staff
If you were a Servais & staff hater or doubter entering this season, I’m not sure you watched Mariners baseball last year, and you most likely called for their collective head last month

Considering what this roster has gone through — injuries (Haniger, Lewis, Murphy, Sadler), suspensions, odd yet massive struggles by key proven veterans (Ray, Winker, Frazier, Steckenrider), and the need to rely on young unproven players (Rodriguez, Raleigh, Kirby, Murfee, et al) to stay afloat — the fact the club is 51-42 at the break is a testament to Servais, the staff as a whole, and every single player that has contributed.

This team is solid — I don’t know if they’re good yet, but they’re solid and on their way, and if the big-picture trends keep up they’ll blow right past ‘good’ into the company of the elite.