Mariners Prospect Notebook: Cole Young looks like No. 1
I didn't even get to a game before the lauding began.
My preseason Seattle Mariners Top 50 Prospect Rankings featured C Harry Ford at No. 1, RHP Byrce Miller at No. 2, and SS Felnin Celesten at No. 3. Last July’s top pick Cole Young ranked No. 5 behind those three and 2B/3B Michael Arroyo.
In just two-plus weeks, Young has changed things for me, and I’m a sample-size guy.
He’s added significant strength — in some ways he looks like a different human being, to be honest — but has shown the same sweet, highly-functional setup and swing as always.
After 60 plate appearances this season, I’m moving Young up in my rankings.
Over the winter, I left Young below Arroyo due to upside and athleticism. While Arroyo may still have a lead on both areas, Young having added meaningful strength and at the age of 19 handling Modesto at such a high level for 105 plate appearances now — .356/.448/.540 — is enough.
These are what I call answered questions.
And while it’s a bit unfair to Arroyo, 18, this is based on what Young is doing not what Arroyo hasn’t.
But I’m not just moving Young to No. 4 in a swap with Arroyo. Young will be at least the new No. 2 prospect behind Ford, and by the time I make this change on May 1, I’m not entirely sure Young won’t be No. 1.
Young, a left-handed hitter with a future plus hit tool and perhaps enough pop to get to average grades in time, is also an adequate shortstop with a chance be be solid average, though he may ideally fit long-term at second base. How his body deals with the added weight the next year or two may dictate, but his arm is not a major concern.
My expectation for Young when the year started was after a few months, perhaps three, the Mariners would get him time in High-A Everett, perhaps as many as 60-70 games.
As I write this, I’m not convinced it shouldn’t occur sooner, and again, I’m very much a sample-size believer. Let things sit, allow the game to play out, yield to the difficulties that is the game of baseball, and dont take unnecessary risks with players.
But hit tools play and are the single greatest indicator of a player’s floor and timetable, and if the Mariners moved Young to Everett in May — in a swap for SS Axel Sanchez — I wouldn’t argue for one second.
Young probably doesn’t have much of a chance to be a superstar, but for a prep draftee he comes with little risk, and any power he gets to beyond 8-10 homers and 25 doubles is a bonus on top of the average to above-average overall grades provided by his profile and projection.
And maybe the draft-day ceiling comp I threw on Young comes to fruition: A left-handed hitting Dansby Swanson, though Young is more likely to swap out some of the home run power for batting average and OBP.
For the record, other comps I’ve heard and discussed for Young include Jason Kipnis, Asdrubal Cabrera, Carlos Guillen, and Michael Young.
It’s petty good company.
We spend a lot of time talking about Miller, Emerson Hancock, Bryan Woo, Prelander Berroa, Taylor Dollard, and a bevy of relievers in Double-A Arkansas and Triple-A Tacoma because, well, they’re close to the big leagues and may be called up to the majors in 2023.
But there are a couple of arms in the lower minors making waves of which we should take notice.
Right-hander Juan Mercedes is 90-93 mph with a plus slider and if there’s any chance his velocity plays up in a permanent relief role he might have a shot at pitching in some high leverage spots in a few years.
In three starts this season he’s whiffed 24 of 67 batters faced (36%), walked just five (7.4%) and kept the ball in the ballpark in 15 frames. He’s 23 and probably needs to start moving up the ladder with some success to hang onto prospect status, but he’s an intriguing arm to watch develop, even if he’s a bit of a late bloomer.
The club’s third-round pick from 2021 has flashed in spots in his 122 innings of pro experience. But Michael Morales’ stuff has remained fringy, particularly the fastball value. The hope in 2023 is he finds a bit more velocity and starts turning up the fire on his offspeed stuff.
Morales is built to eat innings at 6-foot-2 and 215 pounds, and repeats his delivery well. He’s always been able to throw strikes, but has struggled some with locating pitches as he efforts to pitch on the edges of the zone, hence the 56 walks in 131.1 professional innings.
But there’s movement on the fastball, the curveball is above-average to plus, he also has a useful slider and promising changeup. Even an average fastball puts him into Taylor Dollard range at the very worst, perhaps with more upside as a starter thanks to a deeper repertoire.
Efficiency and command are Morales’ strengths, but a tick up in stuff is his ticket to the big leagues. And there are signs of that early this season.
Speaking of all those arms in the upper minors, it’s a bit early to call for those with the potential for bright futures in the starting rotation. They’re not ready for the majors in that role, and disrupting their development to use them in a relief role after 2-3 starts is pretty shortsighted. I’d say Miller, Hancock, and Woo fall into that category.
Everyone else, however? Fair game if you ask me. But I’ll say this about Prelander Berroa, who I believe belongs in a relief role at the big-league level: He doesn’t appear ready to stay in the zone enough to warrant a call-up just yet (6 BB in 9.1 IP), but he’s probably closer than Juan Then, Isaiah Campbell, and Travis Kuhn.
Devin Sweet, he of the below-average fastball and 65-grade changeup, has nine punchies in five innings of relief work. He’s walked one and allowed four hits.
Stephen Kolek, a former starter who dwells in the 94-98 mph range with a four-seamer, has had his slider working as he transitions full-time to the bullpen. In four appearances, the right-hander has allowed two baserunners while piling up nine strikeouts. Don’t sleep on Kolek.