Mariners vs. Astros Tale of the Tape, Top 25 Players, Three Keys for Each Team, Prediction
The Best-of-5 ALDS starts Tuesday.
These two teams have played 19 games already in 2022. The Houston Astros won six of the last seven contests after a split of the first 12. In each area of the game, it’s relatively close, but the division champs have at least slight edge in most categories.
In a short series, however, the margins are razor thin.
TUNE IN AFTER ANY AND ALL MARINERS VICTORIES FOR THE BASEBALL THINGS POSTGAME SHOW WITH JASON A. CHURCHILL IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FINAL OUT OF THE GAME.
Top 20 Players in the Series
Yordan Alvarez, OF/DH — Houston
Justin Verlander, RHP — Houston
Jose Altuve, 2B — Houston
Julio Rodriguez, CF — Seattle
Framber Valdez, LHP — Houston
Cal Raleigh, C — Seattle
Alex Bregman, 3B — Houston
Kyle Tucker, RF — Houston
Luis Castillo, RHP — Seattle
Eugenio Suarez, 3B — Seattle
Logan Gilbert, RHP — Seattle
George Kirby, RHP — Seattle
Cristian Javier, LHP — Houston
Mitch Haniger, RF — Seattle
Andres Munoz, RHP — Seattle
Jeremy Pena, SS — Houston
Robbie Ray, LHP — Seattle
Ty France, 1B — Seattle
Ryan Pressly, RHP — Houston
Luis Garcia, RHP — Houston
Matt Brash, RHP — Seattle
Jose Urquidy, RHP — Houston
Erik Swanson, RHP — Seattle
Paul Sewald, RHP — Seattle
J.P. Crawford, SS — Seattle
Keys for Each Team
Seattle
Score Early
It’s a good idea for any team to score a run or two early, but for Seattle it’s enormous, taking a little pressure off not just the lineup, but that day’s starting pitcher. Any inch of breathing room goes a long way.
Get 7 from the starter
It’s a lot to ask to get seven innings from your starter each time out, but if they do it means they’re in the lead, tied, or within a run through seven framIn every case, it’s a game Seattle can win over the final two innings. The Astros can match the bullpen depth of the Mariners, so the Mariners need to match the rotation value Houston brings, too.
Play flawless fundamental baseball
The Mariners cannot afford to give free passes to the bottom of the Astros order, make defensive mistakes, or have miscues on the bases. Houston has a decided edge in talent and have a much deeper lineup with a better ability to score runs. Seattle has to steal a run or two on both sides, but cannot give away outs or afford the Astros additional opportunities.
If Seattle does all of the above, it’s a 50-50 series.
Houston
Get to Seattle’s pen early in Game 1
Yes, the Mariners have a deep bullpen, but forcing them to use their lesser arms in the middle of the game after a starter failed to go deep is a recipe for an Astros victory, and probably an easy one in this series. And getting this started in Game 1 sets up advantages for Houston the rest of the way.
Stay within striking distanceHouston, particularly at home (123 wRC+, best home mark in the AL, second in MLB to only LAD), can score runs in bunches and from any spot in their lineup. They simply need to keep the game from getting away from them. While anything can happen, as the Mariners can attest to from their historic comeback Saturday, getting down 4-plus runs to any pitching staff left in the postseason is a prescription for drawing an ‘L.’
Limit the use of the middle relief armsForget what the use of the Astros’ middle relievers means with regard to the performance of their starting pitchers. If the Mariners’ lineup gets to face Houston’s 5th-8th best arms and the Astros are facing the Mariners’ best, this, my friends, is what we call an equalizer. Dusty Baker’s team doesn’t want this. At all. If they stay away from it for the most part, the Astros win this series in four. At most.
Prediction
Despite this series being the best of five games rather than three like the Wild Card round, it’s still a short series and some of a club’s deficiencies can be hidden or mitigated. This is how the better team doesn’t always win, and this is why Seattle has a shot here.
Of course, the better team usually does win, and without some short-series magic the Mariners probably will have a tough time staying afloat here. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Astros swept, but I’d also give the Mariners more than a puncher’s chance, and if they can find a way to win one of the first two in Houston it’s a little closer to a jump ball than the Astros would like to deal with in this round.
In terms of talent, Houston has an answer for everything Seattle has, and the same isn’t true in the other direction. The difference, on paper, is the firepower at the plate. But if the Mariners perform on the mound and make pitching decisions with elite precision, they can beat the Astros in five, despite the fact the deciding game is back at The Juice Box.
Nope, I don’t buy into Houston’s ‘experience’ factor. The playoffs are about talent and execution. Period.
PICK: Astros in four
While that dose of reality took some helium out of my balloon, it is still aloft. I *believe* the Mariner's edge can often come from their magic clubhouse spice. I know that's not easily quantifiable, but the factor seems at times real. If the Mariners make it through this series, it is this magic that will make it overwhelmingly special. Here's to the Mariners showing that pure love for the game, one's teammates and fans can bring the baseball gods to life. Go Ms!