Maybe it's time for a shake-up

The Mariners' offensive struggles have not gone away since MItch Haniger returned.

Mitch Haniger has been very good since his return from the IL, just like the Seattle Mariners hoped, and like we all expected. Still, the club has again run into an extended cold streak offensively that has cost them games, and until the offeason where more impactful adjustments can be made I think it’s time for a few changes.

But I’m not talking about batting order. We know the order players are placed matters a lot less than some think, and that making adjustments to it has minimal impact over the long haul. I’m talking about changes to the lineup. Sorta.

There are a few hitters Seattle can rely on enough to run them out there pretty much every single day, starting with Haniger and phenom Julio Rodriguez. Typically we can include Ty France in that, and in the big picture we’ll do that here. Cal Raleigh can’t be run into the ground starting six days a week, but is otherwise plenty good enough at the plate to warrant playing regularly.

That’s where the list ends, however.

But with the trade deadline having passed, there aren’t a lot of options. I believe Taylor Trammell is a better fit for the club right now than is Jake Lamb, but in a few days Seattle will be able to add such a player without permanently jettisoning another. Jarred Kelenic is not ready to produce in the big leagues, and from what I can see, neither is Abraham Toro, though he may get a limited chance in September.

In other words, from a personnel standpoint, there isn’t much Jerry Dipoto can do. But there are things Scott Servais can do, and it may be time to kick some of these into gear as the club grinds through the stretch drive of the season, seeking to end the longest postseason drought in major American sports.

More Dylan Moore and Sam Haggerty

Neither Moore nor Haggerty should play everyday — such deployment likely exposes their weaknesses— nor is eithersome kind of juggernaut at the plate,but Moore is batting .240/.383/.427 versus left-handed pitching this season and is 11% above average against southoaws for his career. Both splits represent theoretical upgrades to J.P. Crawford (.235/.308/.383 vs LHP) and Adam Frazier (.216/.296/.297 vs LHP), and defensively Moore is more than playable at both spots — even grading out above-average at second in his limited time there in the big leagues.

Haggerty’s track record is quite shallow — he has 282 career MLB plate appearances, 130 of them in 2022 — so running with numbers isn’t necessarily wise, but even the scouting report suggests more time. Haggerty is 18-for-39 as a right-handed batter this season, including three homers, and is a matchup advantage over Jesse Winker verus some left-handed starters. I’m not suggesting the club bench Crawford, Frazier, or Winker, but I do believe they should be playing matchup a bit more with these three players.

Having said that, Winker, who is consistently removed later in games for defense, has hit well his last 47 games, and has actually fared better versus southpaws in 2022, so the club will have to weigh those outings more carefully. But Haggerty can also man second base well enough to get a start or two there over the final 30-plus games — once he’s healthy, following a finger injury on a bunt attempt Friday.

Forget about Crawford’s future, where he should play, the club’s stance last winter, et al. This is about the club’s best chance to win every game the rest of the way. The former Gold Glover is not playing elite defense this season, and is hitting .228/.301/.287 since May 6, a span of 377 plate appearances. He’s been one of the worst hitters in baseball over that span and the Mariners cannot afford to keep playing the hope game to the same extent they have thus far. Crawford is hurting the team offensively. Moore can handle shortstop for a start or two a week when the pitching matchup calls for it — and it does, including versus the occasional right-handed starter. Crawford simply hasn’t earned the benefit of the doubt. The sample is too large, and frankly, the stakes are too high.

With Frazier, who is batting .285 with a .341 OBP since July 2, has struggled all year versus lefties and is currently in a 1-for-16 stretch. Even at his 2022 best, Frazier isn’t valuabe enough to run out every day without machup consideration. In at least two games per week on average, Moore or Haggerty appear like the better play at this point.

While the advantage of managing these players in the suggest manner may lack apparent impact, every game counts, every run, every plate appearance counts. One pitch to the wrong batter can cost the Mariners the season they should have.

The Order

Like I alluded to above and have said on all platforms on multiple occasions, the batting order doesn’t make a big difference, but I have always believed in one thing: Get your best hitters as many chances as is possible, which means bat them ahead of everyone else.

Whether that’s Julio at leadoff or not, Mitch in the three-hole or not, it really doesn’t matter all that much. But while Servais and company have done a great job with this in general terms, it may be time to take a more focused approach to getting the best hitters as many PAs as possible.

With France looking to fight his way out of a 16-game stretch from hell (5-for-58, no extra-base hits), including a current run of 20 conseucitve at-bats without a hit, Winker has been getting time in the two-hole. I see the logic; even in his struggles he walks a lot and has been hitting more of late (150 wRC+ last 47 games).

But with so few games remaining, I’m thinking about it this way: If the game is on the line (batter represents tying or go-ahead run), who do I want at the plate most? Because that one AB could mean the season, the answer to the question is not Winker.

Julio, Haniger are 1-2, in some order, without question.

I do understand the indirect affect spreading out the most productive hitters can have on a lineup, and the answer to ‘if the top two don’t hit that day, how do they score runs at all?’ is a scary one. But the club plays close games damn near every night and I don’t want Haniger left in the on-deck circle in a one-run game in the ninth because he was batting behind Winker.

We can all live with Julio getting the final shot. But if DK Metcalf is doubled, the second option is Tyler Lockett, not Freddy Swain. Yes, essentially I’m comparing Winker to Swain, and damnit, that is hilarious, even if it’s too harsh on Winker, who has a track record of major offensive production. But this year he’s been a fourth or fifth option, not a second.

Seattle scores when their best hitters go yard, and while there’s general sense to preferring to have runners on base when they do, the results this season suggest a solo shot is better than hoping for others to get on base to generate more scoring, because Julio and Mitch ultimately won’t get those opportunities enough.

Use Raleigh at DH, Santana less

The Mariners can’t start Raleigh behind the plate six games a week. It’s asking for injury and/or offensive struggles. But while his glove needs to be on the bench, his bat doesn’t need to be, not every time. Use him as the DH vs right-handed pitching when Luis Castillo and Curt Casali make up the battery.

Raleigh is a better bet to hit in these matchups than is Carlos Santana, who has been the mos popular choice at DH, but has been awful as a left-handed stick, despite the homers. As Seattle’s designated hitter, Santana is batting .108/.212/.270. Not a typo. So when Haniger isn’t manning the DH spot to keep him fresh and healthy, consider Raleigh, and deal with the rare consequences of using your catcher in that role. The Mariners need the offense, and their DHs this season have been putrid: .156/.251/.288, 61 wRC+.

Consider Philosophical Changes

I can’t sit here and tell you what the organization does to prepare for games. Not one hitter, not the club as a whole. But it certainly appears like the game planning is sub-optimal.

This is typically on the hitters themselves, but the Mariners are running out bats with limited experience and limited success, suggesting perhaps the club’s general philosophies arent helping them.

The Mariners have been far too easy to pitch to this season, and the results don’t fit the back of the collective baseball card. And no, I’m not suggesting they fire their hitting coaches. But I sure hope they don’t stick with what’s not working.