Not getting stuck on 'J.P. can't hit'

There's a real chance Crawford isn't a finished product at the plate.

Anytime I think of veteran players potentially improving greatly I am reminded of something long-time big leaguer Jed Lowrie told me back in 2013. He said one of the big misnomers he believes fans and even some media have about baseball players is how established players are what they are. Lowrie said veteran hitters have to get better just to sustain production from year to year, and that reaching a certain age, even 30 and beyond, doesn’t mean a skill cannot be significantly improved.

This is what I think of when Seattle Mariners shortstop J.P. Crawford comes to mind.

Crawford has been fine at the plate the last two years, but only relative to the worst regular on a solid team. He’s essentially been an average hitter, based largely on an above-average on-base percentage of .338 in 2021, and .339 in 2022. But he’s been among the more frustrating hitters to watch because he has very good bat-to-ball skills, has flashed better abilities, and the club has had multiple holes in their lineup.

The goal of the Mariners’ brass this winter should be to make Crawford the clear worst regular on the roster from an offensive standpoint, and by a relatively wide margin. But Crawford’s goal, undoubtedly, is to get better.

And it’s legitimately possible he does in a noticeable, meaningful manner.

He’ll be 28 in January, so there’s real room for enhancement of his physical tools as well as improvement in terms of skill. But anytime I see improved statistics of a hitter beyond the age of 25 and beyond his first few seasons in the majors, I wonder how that player got there.

My first question is usually aimed at swing changes, though that isn’t some kind of requirement for improvement. But there does need to be some explanation for the vast improvement for me to believe it’s sustainable.

For Crawford, there are sensible swing adjustments that would positively impact his results. I won’t go too deep into specifics — I believe I have beaten the topic to death — but for starters Crawford’s average bat speed suggests creating a ridiculously long and suboptimal path for the barrel runs counter to consistently hitting the ball hard. It’s basic, but it’s a start.

Crawford’s left-handed stroke produced a pull rate of 34%in 2022, 30.4% in 2021, and he hits the ball on the ground about 45% of the time. He’s clearly not pull happy, and considering his inability to hit the ball hard regularly (under 30% combined the last two seasons; league average is 38.4%), suggesting more fly balls would be quite crazy.

But hitting the ball on the ground is generally a bad idea in Major League Baseball. Sure, you can hit .240 (.240 league average on ground balls in 2021-22), and that likely increases with the new shift regulations in 2023, but it’s difficult to hit for extra bases by pounding the ball in the dirt.

By contrast, in 2021-22, the league slugged .264 on ground balls, but nearly .700 on fly balls (with a .222 average) and over .900 on line drives with an average over .640. Crawford’s swing is producing more than 75% non-line drive, which alone is not a bad number. But he’s incapable of doing much damage on fly balls thanks to a lack of bat speed and barrel ability.

Both of those things can be improved, however, partcularly his ability to get the barrel on the baseball. If Crawford can improve how often he finds the barrel (not necessarily statistically speaking, where a ‘barrel’ is a batted ball that is at least 98 mph off the bat with a corresponding launch angle to match), just generally speaking putting the fat part of the bat on the ball more often.

Crawford’s swing path and timing create the batted ball types (FB, LD, GB, PU) as well as the launch angles. The shortstop’s average LA was 8.9 in 2022 and 9.8 in 2021. The angle itself isn’t a huge problem. Some good hitters sit in this range or lower, including Brandon Nimmo, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Jose Abreu, Josh Bell, and others. But Crawford’s average exit velocity of 85.1 and barrel rate of 2% rank extremely low among qualified players (5th lowest EV, 8th lowest BR). Hitters most like Crawford from data like this include Myles Straw, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Adam Frazier, Yuli Gurriel, Cesar Hernandez, Miguel Rojas. Only Steven Kwan’s presence gives hope.

When we discuss the lineup of the Seattle Mariners, the default these days is to send Crawford to the nine-hole and forget about him. Get eight better hitters and deal with J.P.’s limited offensive output, hope for the best — and for the return of his plus defense at shortstop — and see what happens.

But there’s not only room for Crawford to get better, there’s a very real and clear path and process for him to do so. I won’t sit here in my safe office chair staring at a computer screen and suggest it’s simply a matter of effort, because it’s not. They’re called skills for a reason.

But Crawford’s existing basic abilitities — consistent contact, hand-eye coordination — and his very obvious desire to get the most out of himself lend some degree of confidence the Mariners’ $51 million man may very well show up in 2023 a better hitter, and we shouldn’t get stuck on the idea he just is what he is.

What’s J.P.’s Upside? This isn’t the most important question, but it’s a relevant an interesting one, and one I don’t know the answer to, at least not one with evidence to support it. The chances Crawford shows up looking like Trea Turner (128 wRC+) or Xander Bogaerts (134 wRC+) are obviously no greater than the chance Pete Rose ever acts like anything but a lying, selfish ass,, but I’m not convinced it’s out of the realm of possibility Crawford posts a couple of ‘prime’ seasons that look more like Andrew Benintendi’s 2022 slash (.304/.373/.399).

It may not seem like a lot, but Crawford slugged .336 in 2022 and has never slugged higher than .371 in a season he’s logged 50 or more games.

To get there, J.P. probably needs to add upper and lower body strength, which also would theoretically support better in-season endurance, which some believe is why Crawford fades in and out during the year.

Ideally, Crawford shows up in Peoria early and shows he’s added some muscle and made a significant swing adjustment. If neither are apparent, I wont have a lick of confidence he’ll be meaningfully better in 2023 beyond what the shoft regulations offer.

But the changes needed are partly about decisions. Hopefully the Mariners and J.P. make the right ones so the grand style and leadership he provides is matched by his on-field production. That version of J.P. Crawford is a glue guy for a World Series contender.