NOTEBOOK: Fall League, Prospects of the Year, and Comparing the Mariners pitching staff to the best in MLB
Let's clear out the notebook.
It’s the time of year to dole out Minor League Baseball awards, talk fall ball, and for the first time in over two decades, consider how well the Mariners’ pitching staff matches up with the best in baseball, because, well… it’s a playoff thing. Yes, a playoff thing.
Over the weekend at Prospect Insider, I discussed the Mariners prospects assigned to the Arizona Fall League, and Monday I handed out my Mariners Prospects of the Year.
Here, right now, however, is my All-Prospect Team for the Seattle Mariners this season:
1B: Robert Perez Jr., A/A+: .288/.398/.523, 27 HR, 12.5% BB, 25% K
2B: Kaden Polcovich, AA: .242/.345/.386, 12 HR, 11.3% BB, 22.5% K
3B: Michael Arroyo, DSL: .314/.457/.484, 4 HR, 13.6% BB, 16.6% K
SS: Axel Sanchez, ACL/A/A+: .286/.365/.510, 10 HR, 9.1% BB, 24.9% K
OF: Lazaro Montes, DSL: .284/.422/.585, 10 HR, 15.7% BB, 33% K
OF: Jonatan Clase, A: .267/.373/.463, 13 HR, 13% BB, 26.7% K
OF: Cade Marlowe, AA/AAA: .290/.380/.480, 20 HR, 10.5%, 26.1% K
C: Harry Ford, A: .274/.425/.438, 11 HR, 17.6% BB, 23% K
DH: Joe Rizzo, AA: .277/.343/.467, 20 HR, 8.9% BB, 19% K
SP: Bryce Miller, A/A+/AA: 27 G, 3.16 ERA, 133.2 IP, 93 H, 8.5% BB, 30% K
SP: Emerson Hancock, AA: 21 G, 3.75 ERA, 98.1 IP, 80 H, 9.2% BB, 22.2% K
SP: Taylor Dollard, AA: 27 G, 2.25 ERA, 144 IP, 106 H, 5.4% BB, 22.9% K
SP: Prelander Berroa, A+/AA: 26 G, 2.86 ERA, 100.2 IP, 54 H, 15.3% BB, 36.4% K
SP: Joseph Hernandez, A: 24 G, 3.39 ERA, 116.2 IP, 79 H, 11.1%, 29.4% K
RP: Isaiah Campbell, A+/AA: 33 G, 1.57 ERA, 46 IP, 31 H, 6.7% BB, 33% K
The Mariners’ greatest weakness all season — and in many previous seasons of late — is the ability to score runs consistently. They don’t do it. It’s been better of late, and when fully healthy it’s been about an average lineup, but between inexplicable struggles from Ty France and Mitch Haniger, injuries to France, Haniger, Julio Rodriguez, and now Eugenio Suarez — perhaps for the remainder of the regular season — it’s difficult to believe Seattle can win in October with their bats.
This puts the pressure squarely on the pitching staff. Thing is, they’re equipped to compete with the best in baseball on the mound.
Seattle ranks 6th in MLB in ERA for the season at 3.48, behind the Dodgers, Astros, Rays, Yankees, and Braves.
The club’s rotation projects as a very competitive group, especially considering they’ll abbreviate the arms getting time. The Mariners’ top four starters — Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby — match up pretty well with any club’s top 4.
Since the break, those four have combined for a 3.17 ERA (2nd behind LAD’s top 4) with a 26.7% K rate (3rd) and a 5.6% BB rate (1st).
Seattle’s bullpen is also very good. I wouldn’t call it elite, but it’s pretty good and can get hot and compete with anyone. And again, being able to shorten the go-tos and play matchup more religiously suggests even better results.
Seattle’s best five relievers the 2nd half — Erik Swanson, Paul Sewald, Matt Brash, Penn Murfee, and Andrés Muñoz — have combined for a 1.96 ERA with a 31% K rate. That’s elite.
For the season, the Mariners’ bullpen has held left-handed batters to a .215/.281/.348 slash despite lacking what one might call a go-to southpaw. Whether Matthew Boyd serves that role moving forward or not remains to be seen, but he projects as a more stable option than they had at thier disposal most of the year.
It’s clear Seattle can really, really pitch. The problem here is, there’s no advantage on paper when it comes to the postseason and any potential opponents. The Mariners have no margin for error. They’ll have to execute offensively, and max out the impact of their very, very good pitching staff or it’ll be a very short stay in the playoffs.
The good news is, it doesn’t take a long run of production to win a series. At their best, the Mariners are a top 10 team in Major League Baseball. One can argue they’re as good as the No. 2 team in the American League. But they will have to be healthy, and they will not be able to overcome multiple injuries to the lineup or more than one of their top four hitters failing to produce.
It would also be nice if the bottom of the lineup found a way to spike next month. I’m talking about you, J.P. Crawford and Adam Frazier. Of course, Jesse Winker’s bat waking up would be a major boon, but I’d bet on the middle infielders first.