One early projection says the Mariners have 7 average or better hitters already
There are caveats and some context here, so don't live and die by the headline, OK?
Steamer projects the Seattle Mariners to have seven players with significant playing time to finish the season with a 100 wRC+ or higher — six of those with more than 100 games played, five with at least 120 games played.
I’m not a big believer in projection systems. Not ones that projects wins for baseball teams and not those that predict season-long performance for individual players.
But they can be good for shedding light on some things, such as which players have positive trends and which don’t, among other things.
One of those systems is Steamer, as seen at FanGraphs. Steamer’s exact formula isn’t public, but the system spits out player projections based on past performance using weighted averages, aging trends, and advanced pitch-tracking data.
The early returns are out for 2024 — you can find them here — and the offensive forecast for the Mariners are interesting.
Julio Rodriguez leads the way with projected 136 wRC+, with a slash of .282/.345/.512. That is surprising to no one. It’s what comes next that’s interesting, at least conversationally.
NOTE: What is wRC+? Click here.
Ty France is projected to come in next at a 118 wRC+ and a .269/.343/.426 slash, including 19 homers. France is followed by J.P. Crawford (114) and Cal Raleigh (111). The system doesn’t buy Crawford’s adjustment much (I do more than this afte a 134 a year ago), and it sees Raleigh as a plateauing bat (111 last year, too).
It also gets fun after that, too, however.
Dom Canzone, in a projected 89 games and 348 plate appearances, is projected by Steamer to hit .254/.313/.424 with 13 homers and a 108 wRC+. A quality part-time player.
Jarred Kelenic comes in at 104 (.237/.314/.419 with 18 HR in 502 PA).
And look what’s next: Luis Urias with a 103 wRC+ in 409 PAs. For the record, Steamer, which, full disclosure, is just one of many projection systems, none of which I use to suggest much of anything, has Eugenio Suarez posting a 99 wRC+ in 144 games, and Teoscar Hernandez, who remains a free agent, to post a 105 wRC+ in 150 games.
Now, I’m not suggesting these projections mean anything in particular or should drive an entire narrative, and they certainly don’t tell me the Mariners don’t need multiple additional offensive players before Opening Day. But these systems use years of data and I find it interesting how the formul hedges particular players, and I think it at least gives us a reasonable forecast for each player, despite general accuracy being all over the map.
But for the fun of it, if these projections happened to be close, the Mariners made a sideways move on the field when they essentially swapped out Suarez for Urias at the hot corner, and Hernandez’s 2023 (105 wRC+) was not a fluke, even though his traditional stats likely improve if he plays in a more hitter-friendly ballpark in ‘24.
Steamer, however, doesn’t like Dylan Moore’s chances to be average or better for the third straight season, forecasting a 90 wRC+ for him in 66 games. Cade Marlowe projects to fall apart to the tune of a 78 wRC+ after a strong showing overall last summer (112 wrC+ in 100 PA). Josh Rojas is projected to split the difference between his overall 2023 production and his 2022 season, which puts him at a 90 wRC+ in 96 games.
The system also doesn’t like the club’s prospects, including Ryan Bliss (83 wRC+ in 164 PA).
The France projection at 118 puts him close to his 2021 and 2022 seasons (129, 125) and is mainly based on him getting back a bit of his power, a reasonable conclusion considering there’s more evidence he’s that hitter than the one he showed this past season.
The good news on France from 2023? He played 158 games after just 127 and 106 the prior two campaigns. The bad news beyond the basic numbers? He expanded the zone more than ever in what appeared to be an attempt to max out his power potential, and his contact rate on those out-of-zone swings sunk to 56%.
France hit just .204 with a .346 slug on four-seam fastballs in 2023, and while he’s never been an elite four-seam killer, that’s down from .310/.462 in 2022. France also labored versus the slider (.192 AVG, .296 SLG) after batting .279 with a .477 slugging percentage against them in 2022. Seems his struggles are based on attack plan and the swing decisions that resulted from it, which tells me it can vastly improved.
Of course, none of that, or these projections, mean anything. Players have to perform on the field.