One Player or Prospect from Every Team With the Best Chance to Break Out in the Bigs in 2023
Last season was a banner year for rookies, and there were a handful of impact breakout seasons, too. Who's in line for 2023?
National League
Atlanta Braves
Vaughn Grissom, IF/OF
Grissom, a 22-year-old natural second baseman, made his debut last season when Ozzie Albies hit the IL and he hit well in 156 plate appearances (.291/.353/.440, 121 wRC+).
He should get more time this season, including the first shot at shortstop in the absence of Dansby Swanson, who signed with the Chicago Cubs over the winter.
The former 11th-round pick offers but average power, but he’s answered a lot of questions since Draft Day in 2019, hitting for average and getting on base at every step of pro ball so far.
He makes contact, hits line drives, and while he doesn’t pound the ball into the gaps regularly, he draws just enough walks to make it all work.
New York Mets
Brett Baty, 3B
Baty raked at two levels in 2022 and is one of just a few prospects carrying plus hit and power grades while projecting to within a year of the majors.
He’s 23, got a quick taste of the bigs last August and appears ripe for a breakout of sorts in 2023. Baty offers the Mets a chance at some upside and figures to get a shot at some point, whether it be out of the gate or sometime later in the year.
Philadelphia Phillies
Alec Bohm, 3B
Bohm was an average hitter a year ago but there’s more in the tank considering plus power and the fact he batted .280/.315 a year ago with a 17% strikeout rate. He also hit the ball hard at a high rate (43%), which appears to be the norm for him (well over 40% for his 311-game career).
He’ll probably never be more than a 40-grade defender at third, but at 26 and approaching 1500 plate appearances, I’d bet on the breakout in 2023.
Miami Marlins
Edward Cabrera, RHP
I’d love to put the 6-foot-8 Eury Perez here (70 fastball, two 60-grade secondaries, 60 command), but he’s just 20 in April and probably doesn’t have the workload available to make a big impact in the majors in 2023.
Cabrera, 24, just needs to stay healthy. It’s a mid-90s fastball, one of the better curveballs in the game and a perhaps the best changeup. All three miss bats, but pale in comparison to the slider whiff rate (42.5%) he posted in 14 starts in 2022.
Cabrera is nasty.
Washington Nationals
Mackenzie Gore, LHP
Gore rebounded a bit with the San Diego Padres in 2022 after derailing his path to the bigs in 20-21. His mechanics are (mostly) back and so is the velocity on a four-seamer up to 97 mph. Both breaking balls miss bats enough to project to at least average, though the slider tends to flatten out. His changeup flashes as a swing-and-miss pitch, too.
He’s battled some elbow soreness, though, so expect the Nationals to be careful, but Gore carries an outside chance at a No. 2 power lefty if he can find a consistent release point and throw more strikes.
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Cincinnati Reds
Elly De La Cruz, SS/3B
De La Cruz, 21, has above-average to plus tools across the board, and his domination of High-A and Double-A in 2022 suggest he’s closing in on the majors.
There’s still too much swing-and-miss, but it’s 65 raw power and a chance to hit .260 or better. Pairing that with high-end speed is a toolsy package that could end up in multiple All-Star games.
Watching De La Cruz also made me wonder if center field isn’t an option if shortstop doesn’t work and the power doesn’t fit well enough at the hot corner to stave off Noelvi Marte.
Milwaukee Brewers
Aaron Ashby, LHP
Ashby’s below-average control is holding him back from talk of another frontline arm in the Brewers’ rotation. But the stuff is too good to give up on the idea and I Imagine he’ll help Milwaukee in both roles again in 2023.
It’s a 93-98 mph heavy sinker with late bite, an accompanying power slider with huge strikeout results. He also owns a potentially-plus changeup and a useful curveball for his rotation time. If the opportunity is there, Ashby, who posted a 3.29 xFIP in 19 starts and eight relief appearances last season, he could become more of a mainstay in the former role.
St. Louis Cardinals
Jordan Walker, 3B
Walker is one of the game’s best offensive prospects, generating big power from plus bat speed and tremendous leverage.
He’s handling the hot corner and the arm is huge so if he has to slide to right field it all plays fine, which is key for the short term because Walker is blocked at third by Nolan Arenado, and at first by Paul Goldschmidt.
Walker’s timeline includes a lot of 2023 possibilities, so keep an eye out for his chance as early as Opening Day, which looks like a foregone conclusion.
Chicago Cubs
Jeremiah Estrada, RHR
A pure reliever, Estrada misses bats with a 70-grade slider (58% whiff) and if he can find more value from his 97 mph four-seamer, he’s a candidate for high-leverage innings in 2023 on a Cubs team without a lot of proven high-end arms.
Top prospects Brennan Davis and Jordan Wicks provide more upside possibility, but with less chance to see significant time.
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Pittsburgh Pirates
Roansy Contreras, RHP
Contreras, 23, flashed last season in his first extended look in the majors and the Pirates plan to use him in the rotation all year in 2023. He’s got arm speed, athleticism, and sits 94-97 with his four-seamer. His command needs to be better to get more value from it, but that may be the only thing between Contreras and a No. 3 label moving forward.
Batters had a lot of problems against his slider (.163 BAA, .275 SLG, 42% whiff) and curveball (.212 BAA, .333 SLG, 21% whiff) last season. Lefties weren’t an issue a year ago, thanks to Contreras’ ability to use the curveball away from them and pound the slider (21.5% putaway vs LHBS) below the zone.
Colorado Rockies
Ezequiel Tovar, SS
Tovar had a cup of java in the bigs last season after showing an above-average to plus hit tool in four stops in the minors the past two years. There’s gap pop and at least fringe-average projectable power.
While it may take him some time to unlock his offensive abilities — he’s just 21 and has but 54 ABs above Double-A — he’s an elite glove that may earn some Gold Glove attention upon arrival. But there are signs he’s ready to hold his own at the plate, such as his ability to make consistent contact, so keep an eye on Tovar in Denver this season.
San Francisco Giants
Joey Bart, C
While Bart has flaws — long swing and tendency to chase lead to high strikeout rates and low batting averages — but he’s more than capable of hitting 25 homers and drawing enough walks to counter the downside.
Bart hit .239 and cut his K rates down nearly 10% after the break last season, and his defensive supports another extended look in 2023. Essentially he’s the NL’s version of Mike Zunino. He does everything well except make contact. I’m betting the OVER on 20 bombs for him this season.
San Diego Padres
Luis Campusano, C
Nothing about Campusano suggests he shouldn’t play regularly for the Padres. He’s below average defensively, but has plus upside at the plate, including plus raw power.
He’s been battling a hamstring issue this spring and may not begin the season active, but despite the Padres’ stacked roster Campusano fits in as a major piece as early as this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Bobby Miller, RHP
When Miller hits the majors he’ll bring a plus four-seamer that may be plus-plus in a relief role where his future may lie, anyway. The slider is plus, too, and his curveball and changeup project well in the future.
There are questions about Miller’s delivery being fit for a rotation role, but in 2023 he could step in and make an impact out of the bullpen for a Dodgers team without a clear set relief core, and Miller has little left to prove in the minors.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Corbin Carroll, OF
Carroll is the rare example of a premium prospect without big-time power. That’s because he grades out plus to plus-plus in three others, including hitting for average and centerfield defense. He’s an 80-grade runner, has an above-average arm, and plays with tremendous instincts everywhere on the field.
Caroll does generate good bat speed and could eventually hit 15-20 homers (which may inflate to more than that considering his home ballpark), but I’d be surprised if he did anything but put up an all-star caliber season in 2023.
American League
New York Yankees
Anthony Volpe, SS
Volpe may not get the chance in April, but his arrival isn’t far off, and he’s never done anything but hit. Someone’s losing their roster spot the first half of the season, unless the Yankees find a way to move Josh Donaldson, use DJ LeMahieu as the everyday third baseman, and keep Oswaldo Cabrera and Oswald Peraza on the roster whilst calling up their top prospect.
Volpe isn’t all that unlike Carroll in terms of upside and the speed to which he should reach his upside.
Boston Red Sox
Alex Verdugo, OF
He’s 26 with nearly 2000 PAs under his belt and was terrific after the break last season (124 wRC+). He handles lefties pretty well and despite merely average home-run power Verdugo has a chance to be an impact hitter.
He makes consistent contact (career 15% K rate) and is merely one small adjustment from turning a lot of hard-hit ground ball outs into line drives, and may benefit some from the shift restrictions.
Baltimore Orioles
Kyle Bradish, RHP
The easy route here is top prospect Grayson Rodriguez, but Bradish has four pitches that project as at least average, including two above-average breaking balls and a plus changeup.
If the right-hander can get more from his four-seamer (.321 BAA, .539 SLG, 11 HR), his secondary stuff all plays up into a mid-rotation performer in the mold of a Chris Bassitt.
Toronto Blue Jays
Otto Lopez, UT
Lopez is not considered a top prospect by anyone’s measures, largely due to unsettled defensive positioning and a lack of home-run power. But he might be one of the better bets to hit for average and get on base among a very good group of Jays’ prospects, and he may get the chance in 2023.
If Cavan Biggio or Whit Merrifield don’t hit, or the Jays suffer an injury, Lopez should be the first call. A natural infielder, Lopez has outfielder experience, too. His speed and ability to put the ball in play suggest a relatively safe floor, even if the upside isn’t very big.
Chicago White Sox
Andrew Vaughn, 1B/OF
Vaughn was solid a year ago after a promising rookie year, but 2023 may serve as his best opportunity to break out as he heads back to his natural position at first base.
The majority of the improvement could come by way of the home run; it’s 60-grade raw power but he carries a career slug of just .414 into Year 3. It would surprise no one if Vaughn blasted 30-plus homers this season.
Cleveland Guardians
Bo Naylor, C
A year ago the name here was Baylor’s older brother Josh, who posted a 117 wRC+ and hit 20 homers in 2022. Bo, 23, is a legit catcher prospect who hit .257/.366/.515 in 290 PAs in Triple-A last season, suggesting a real chance he forces the Guardians’ hand the first half of 2023.
He doesn’t quite have his brother’s hit and power tools, but he’s a good athlete with a real shot to eventually be an average defender who doles out above-average offensive season led by power and OBP.
Minnesota Twins
Alex Kirilloff, OF
While many are predicting a return-to-form by Max Kepler, I think Kepler is moved to make room for Kirilloff, who still profiles as a .260 hitter with 30-homer pop.
He’ll start 2023 on the IL with a wrist injury, though, so this breakout may not occur until June, but there are too many peripherals pointing toward above-average production to bet Kepler over Kirillof, and I’m making that wager for 2023.
Kansas City Royals
Bobby Witt Jr., SS/3B
The rookie class of 2022 buried Witt Jr. despite a solid, promising year at the plate, but make no mistake, this is a star in the making.
The 22-year-old is at least an average shortstop, plus at third in time, and projects to hit .250 or better with a ton of power that ultimate could equate to mid-.500 slugging marks, 30-40 homers and a load of doubles. I’m betting Witt has a better sophomore year than Michael Harris and Jeremy Pena, and is a top 10 player at whatever position he lands at for 2023.
Detroit Tigers
Riley Greene, OF
Greene showed up last season at 21 and showed advanced abilities to battle good pitching, even though we didn’t see much power from him in 400-plus PAs. But he posted a 45% hard-hit rate and once he learns to generate more consistent loft, the 30-homer range will come easy.
He’s also a good-enough answer in center for now, and projects to hit for enough average to push above-average OBPs to go along with the power.
Houston Astros
Hunter Brown, RHP
Sometimes it’s all about opportunity and that’s the case with Brown, who was set to start the season in the Astros’ bullpen but then Lance McCullers Jr. went down with a forearm strain. But then Brown’s back balked at him in Florida, so he too may get a late start to the season.
Brown, however, remains the club’s best rotation depth, and the right-hander offers sizable upside. Meanwhile, he brings top-shelf stuff to a multi-inning relief role upon his return.
Texas Rangers
Josh Jung, 3B
Third base is Jung’s to start 2023 as long as he avoids the IL after a minor automobile accident March 17. He debuted last season and showed some power, hitting five homers in 102 PAs, but did struggle with contact. That hasn’t been a ding in his profile throughout his pro career, however, and it’s a small sample, anyway.
Jung is an above-average glove with plus raw power and a chance to hit .260 or better, and he’s primed to get started this season in the bottom half of what could be a solid lineup.
Oakland Athletics
Shea Langeliers, C
There are numerous candidates on the A’s roster, but Langeliers gets the nod thanks to above-average power that’s ready to show up in games, and signs he'll hit .230 or better.
The 25-year-old is know for his defense, but his 22 homers in the minors in 2021 and 25 split between Triple-A and Oakland a year ago, so it’s just about consistent contact now that Sean Murphy is in Atlanta and the job is Langeliers’.
Seattle Mariners
Bryce Miller RHP
While there’s more in the tank for Logan Gilbert and George Kirby, and Julio Rodriguez is just getting started, Miller not only is the most likely Mariners prospect to help at the major league level in 2023, but he’s the player most likely to make an impact this season that didn’t in 2022.
He could start, he could serve in a relief role, or some of both, but it’s pretty clear he’s going to get a chunk of innings and his fastball-slider combo projects well enough through 2022 to buy solid-to-above average results.
Los Angeles Angels
Reid Detmers, LHPLogan O’Hoppe is the Halos’ best bet from the prospect class to make an impact in 2023, but Detmers took a step forward in 2022 in terms of throwing strikes, and his changeup improved to at least fringe average levels. All four of his pitches miss bats enough to suggest a mid-rotation profile is within reach, with his two breaking balls leading the way.
But the biggest breakthrough for Detmers last season was fastball command. In 2021, batters hit .407 with an .852 slug on the pitch and he couldn’t stay in the big leagues. Now he’s a bonafide No. 4 starter with some upside.