Prospect Report: A new Top 10 includes arms on the move, lower-level kids performing
It was a truly tremendous first month for the farm system.
Considering what qualifies for realistic in baseball, the Seattle Mariners had what may be the best first month from their top prospects in over a decade, maybe two, and perhaps the best four-week period in at least a dozen years.
From a performance standpoint, very few of the club’s top talents aren’t putting up impressive numbers, including the entire (active) Top 10, and several of the Top 25.
Let’s dig in, starting with my Updated Top 10. My full Top 50 with tools grades is ALWAYS available to All-Star & up subscribers to Baseball Things. Year-round, 24/7/365 access to the rankings, tools grades, scouting scale notes, and more.
1. Harry Ford, C — Everett (A+)
Unlike Noelvi Marte a year ago, the 20-year-old Ford has hit High-A Everett raking to the tune of a .282/.453/.493 slash, including four doubles, a triple, three homers and a 22-18 BB/K ratio in 19 games. He’s started 11 games behind the plate (96 innings) and has thrown out six of 15 runners attempting to steal.
He’s still a solid five-tool player with power and speed and a shot to catch long-term, but it’s his ability to work a pitcher and get on base that carries his offensive profile. Ideally, he finds more barrels, but he does a very good job using the middle of the field and staying behind the baseball.
Ford is showing out like a No. 1 prospect, and a better hard-hit rate the rest of the way this season may suggest a move off catcher to let his bat lead him through the minors at a quicker pace.
2. Cole Young, SS — Modesto (A)
Young added meaningful strength to his frame over the offseason and owns one of the most efficient swings in the minors. The left-handed hitting middle infielder uses the whole field consistently, but has fringe-average raw power which may play at average as he continues to mature and learn to pull the ball more.
But he’s a spray hitter with enough arm to stick at shortstop and the actions and soft hands to make it work. He likely fits better at second base where he may be above-average to plus in time.
Young, 19, is batting .299/.438/.494 with 11 extra-base hits. He’s chasing a bit of late, leading to some relatively high strikeout numbers, but he’s drawn 16 walks to counter the 18 whiffs, and he hasn’t gone back-to-back games without a hit through his first 20 contests.
3. Bryce Miller, RHP — Seattle (MLB)
Miller was a bit off balance in the short time he spent in the minors, failing to show a consistent, improved slider, but did flash an average version, and his fastball value is a great place to start.
He’s sat 95-97 mph all year and into the 80-85 pitch range, while his breaking ball has been mostly below average. His changeup is seldom-used but projects to average at this stage.
He can vary the slider depending on whether he’s looking for a strike or a chase, and he possesses better control of the former variety. Because he relies on the four-seamer so often, his command is on center stage in the big leagues.
If all works out, Miller is a mid-rotation arm in the mold of Zac Gallen or early years Michael Wacha, but there’s still some reliever risk here due to fringe command and the present condition of the offspeed stuff.
4. Felnin Celesten, SS — DSL (R)
Celesten has yet to debut, so nothing’s changed here, but he’s an athletic switch hitter with above-average raw power that may grow to plus as he gains strength and learns to create backspin.
He’s a plus runner now but may settle in somewhere below that thanks to a 6-foot-2, 180-pound frame that figures to get to around 200 pounds before he’s done maturing.
Scouts like the chance to hit for average but the Mariners believe it will take some time for him to tune up both swings. He’s a plus makeup kid, though, and the physical tools project to impact all facets of the game.
5. Michael Arroyo, 2B — EXT (R)
Arroyo is down in extended spring training, but wait til you get a load of this kid’s swing and tools. The hands are electric and he’s wiry strong already with a frame that figures to naturally get stronger.
It’s above-average power and arm strength, and a hit tool that may be among the top five in the system from the raw aspect.
He’s a natural shortstop, but he looks like a second baseman in the Edardo Alfonzo mold, and could end up an efficiency third-sacker led by 16-20 homer pop, a lot of doubles, and solid OBP marks.
In a perfect 2023, Arroyo earns his way to Modesto later this season the same way Gabriel Gonzalez did last year.
6. Bryan Woo, RHP — Arkansas (AA)
Woo is a fastball-slider-changeup right-hander with good four-seam data and a chance at two average or better offspeed pitches. He hasn’t pitched a lot since high school, and even less since being drafted, but he’s been outstanding in his limited outings, including four strong outings in April.
Woo’s 93-99 mph velocity is easy with ride and arm side run. His breaker is a true slider he’s trying to firm up, and he’s shown a promising changeup but he doesn’t use it much yet.
He’s still ramping up his workload, but it may be tough for the Mariners to keep Woo in the minors all year. A summer bullpen role may be in order, though he has a real chance to land in the rotation down the road.
7. Emerson Hancock, RHP — Arkansas (AA)
Hancock did not inspire me in 2022, but he’s out of the gate this season with more fastball value, better extension, and is more often showing a big-league quality slider.
Hancock is 93-96 mph, but has touched 98, and also features a changeup with some swing-and-miss ability. He’s built like an innings eater and is athletic with his lower half, repeating his delivery well. He’s been able to pound more areas of the zone early this season, a good sign for his chances to start at the next level.
It’s more of a No. 4 ceiling right now, but there may be a little more on the way with the secondaries, perhaps getting Hancock to No. 3 status in time.
8. Gabriel Gonzalez, OF — Modesto (A)
The 19-year-old Gonzalez is off to a strong start in 2023, racking up eight extra-base hits and a .368/.422/.526 slash in his first 14 games.
Gonzalez has a consistent swing that produces contact and line drives, and may get to above-average power in time as he learns how to use his strength and bat speed. He’s not a great athlete and has a below-average arm, suggesting he’s bound for left field.
It’s the Melky Cabrera starter kit, minus the switch hitting.
9. Tyler Locklear, 1B/3B — Everett (A+)
Locklear would rank higher if the glove value was higher than 40-grade at third, meaning he’s a first baseman and has to hit quite a bit to profile well at all.
But the raw power looks plus to me and I buy the hit tool more than some, thanks to a gap-to-gap approach with 55 oppo pop and good contact rates for a bat that may end up with a chance at .500 or better slug.
Locklear’s path to the majors is as clear as any of the Top 10: Hit and a hit a ton and we’ll see you at T-Mobile. Anything below a 120 wRC+ bat and he’s likely a part-time player.
10. Jonatan Clase, OF — Everett (A+)
Clase has warts, including a lack of clarity in his defensive value and the swing-and-miss tendencies, but it’s impossible to ignore the bragabouts.
Clase is a 70-grade runner with terrific base-stealing ability, and he continues to flex plus bat speed thanks to added upper-body strength. The switch hitter has lit up the extra-base department with nine doubles, a triple, and seven long balls, and a more consistent performance as a right-handed batter where he’s 9-for-25 with three homers in the early going.
The ultimate power potential is probably in the fringe-average to average range, at least when it comes to the home run, so the key for Clase will be more consistent, solid contact to go with his patient attack plan.
NOTES: SS Axel Sanchez (No. 12) was assigned aggressively to High-A Everett and his numbers reflect such. He’s flashed his tools, but is overmatched at this point, and I expect a change to be made ion the next several weeks to get Sanchez a better opportunity to develop…
I’m not buying the hot start by LF Zach DeLoach (No. 24), who is striking out 31.5% of the time in the PCL and is rolling out a BABIP of .473…
RHP Michael Morales (No. 15) has made a move, starting with better conditioning and a tighter delivery. He may have the best curveball in the system, a firmer, sharper breaker than a year ago, and he’s getting more out of his low-90s fastball, staying closed better and exploding through release…
IF Josh Hood (No. 26) looks like a future utility player to me, but before he moves beyond the mid-20s in my rankings I’d like to see him earn his way to Everett and hit there, too. He’s 22 — 23 in July — and has a strikeout rate a little too high for my taste (24%). But he can play second, third, and short, has average power potential, above-average speed with terrific baserunning instincts, and his middle name is Haggerty, so he’s impossible not to like…
OF Walking Cabrera began the season as my No. 39 prospect and remains criminally underrated. If you’re a Robert Perez Jr. fan, hop off that wagon and get on this one. Cabrera, an average athlete, is a right-handed batter with consistent hard-hit rates in the 40% and beyond range, incouding a 46.8% mark in 2022. The 22-year-old is batting .275/.370/.625 in his 11 games for High-A Everett.
His swing is a bit flatter than is ideal, explaining why he has 23 professional homers despite 60-grade raw power, and he will need to make more contact, but this is the new sleeper in the system for me. Well, not new, he was new on that list for me last year.
Hoping to see Arroyo in Modesto this Summer as well!