Ranking the most likely Mariners to be traded
The Seattle Mariners are destined to make a few trades this winter, be them tiny or of the blockbuster variety, and some of the club’s 40-man roster members appear more likely to be dealt than others.
Here are my rankings of the 10 most likely to be traded, in order of the chances I think they get traded.
1. Jesse Winker, OF/DH
Judging by the combo of reports (Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times) and word I heard from a club insider, Winker has worn out his welcome, alienating the front office by essentially alienating the team’s M.O. If he had hit better, none of this would have come to the surface, and Winker may not have shown this side in the first place, but he struggled to hit for average and power and his injuries took a 40-grade glove and made him one of the game’s very worst fielders of the last 10 years.
Still, there’s a track record here, and while he’s set to make $8.25 million in 2023 prior to hitting free agency, there are going to be DH-needy clubs interested in the potential bounceback potential of a career 126 wRC+ bat.
I would be pretty surprised if Winker isn’t traded this offseason, and it wouldn’t shock me if it’s the first major move the club makes. Any day now.
2. Chris Flexen, RHS
He’s a No. 5 starter — no, really, despite the fact Flexen looks the part of a guy who could be more than that, he’s a No. 5 starter — set to make $8 million in 2023. But despite reports, including by yours truly, Flexen would carry control years beyond next season, his contract calls for free agency, instead, even though he will have fewer than six years of MLB service.
It’s a tad steep of a one-year salary, but Flexen is healthy, throws strikes, and will answer the bell in any role asked. There also may be clubs that see a bit of upside in him. I wouldn’t fall for it (again), but teams like Pittsburgh, Colorado, Washington, Kansas City, and Oakland seem to be fits, as do the Giants, Cardinals, Guardians and Rays.
3. Kyle Lewis, OF/DH
Lewis isn’t a huge performance risk, he’s an availability risk, and a roster construction risk. Trading him might be best for both parties, but it’s not best for the Mariners’ chances to get much in return for the 2020 American League Rookie of the Year.
Lewis’ most recent knee injury may have been even worse than originally thought, but it’s also lingered well into two season, and maybe a third. At some point, the club’s roster spot, $1-plus million (arbitration estimate for 2023), and time and energy may be important enough to cut ties. Maybe that time is now, after Lewis expressed significant disbleief and frustration he was not part of the club’s September call-ups this past season.
If Lewis remains with the club, he’s unlikely to start the year in the majors and before he gets the nod for any regular role on the 26-man will have to not only show he can stay healthy enough to be available with consistency, but ideally he displays an ability to play the outfield at least 3-4 days a week.
Perhaps a club a year or more from contention wants to take a shot on Lewis rebuilding his knee on the long-play and becoming a DH/OF option. I still believe a healthy Lewis, 27, is a .250/.340/.450 bat or better. He just has to get healthy and stay that way, and he’s run out of time in Seattle.
4. Taylor Trammell, OF
Trammell, too, appears to have run out of opportunities with the Mariners. He’s an above-average runner and defender who is average in center field despite a below-average throwing arm. He’s struggled to establish himself at the plate, though he had some teasing stretches early in 2022 with the big club after a nice, albeit short-sampled, run in Triple-A.
He doesn’t make enough contact, however, and the swing seems to need another fix to help him take advantage of his above-average raw power.
He’s probably never going to hit lefties, so this is a 25-year-old looking for a club to help him find his stroke and then give him time in the majors to test it and adjust.
Cade Marlowe, who was just added to the 40-man roster this week, is ahead of both Lewis and Trammell on the depth chart, in my opinion. He’s as good a glove as Trammell, offers more of a threat to steal a base than either, and he’s two years younger than Lewis.
5. Luis Torrens, C
Torrens was DFA’d in 2022 after going most of the season without hitting much. He was good in 2021, but this season the power disappeared. He did improve behind the plate, though, and the final two weeks was brought back into the fold and hit a pair of homers in a bench role. In fact, Torrens homered in three of last 33 PAs in 2022.
He remains interesting enough to keep around, but is now due over $1 million in arbitration, so the club may decide they’d prefer not to pay Torrens and Tom Murphy (up to $2 milllion in 2023) seven figures.
It’s plausible Torrens is non-tendered, but a trade is also sensible to alleviate any conflict the club may have about keeping Torrens another year, and clubs that have seen Torrens show passable defense and the bat potential may want to take a crack.
6. Tom Murphy, C
I only put Murphy here because there certainly is a chance the Mariners don’t want to commit nearly $2 million to a 32-year-old catcher who has essentially missed two of the last three seasons due to injury.
I don’t necessarily expect the club to deal Murphy, but teams are going to ask about him, and Seattle could turn to Curt Casali, Torrens, or a free agent such as Tucker Barnhart, former Mariners backstop Mike Zunino, Roberto Perez, or even Christian Vazquez if they want more trustworthy offense from a second catcher, and move Murphy.
7. Alberto Rodriguez, OF
Rodriguez doesn’t make a ton of sense to keep around if the club gets closer to a roster crunch at any point between now and the start of the 2023 season. He’s a 45-grade corner outfielder who put up pedestrian numbers at the plate as a 22-year-old in High-A Everett (.261/.336/.396). He’s an ordinary athlete, and isn’t within a year of the majors, maybe not even two, and I’d still bet he’s not a major leaguer at all.
Rodriguez taking up space on the 40-man isn’t really all that helpful. But you don’t want to just give away a player you have reason to believe in, and clearly Seattle has there reasons for adding him to the 40-man a year ago. They’re mostly about data, and it’s not even easy-to-see from there, either.
The return for Taijuan Walker posted a hard-hit rate of 19.2% in 2021 and 22.5% this past season. But there’s bat speed and prior to ‘22 a track record of contact. He whiffed 138 times for the AquaSox, however. Next season is as much of a make or break for me on Rodriguez as there can be. Moving him off the roster could be in the offing.
8. Marco Gonzales, LHS
This would be mostly a salary move. Gonzales is owed $18.5 million through the 2024 season, and the Mariners could go with Flexen in the No. 5 spot, or add another starter via trade or free agency. As I discussed on the latest episode of Baseball Things, Seattle is considering starting pitching this winter, including Japanese star Koudai Senga, who sits in the mid-90s with his fastball and offers four secondaries.
Gonzales, in theory, would have value to several clubs as a reliable back-end arm with experience and a track record of health and innings eating. If the Mariners reduced the salary burden from $9.25 million AAV, they might be able to get something of use in return. For now, clubs are going prefer to just spend $5-8 million for one year on a back-end starting pitcher, but the market may stretch for the player this offseason, and if it does, Gonzales will become more attractive in the trade market.
Flexen first, most likely, but Gonzales could go, too.
9. Penn Murfee, RHR
Murfee is No. 5 here not because he’s running out of time to prove himself or he just doesn’t fit, but because he will never have mor etrade value than he does right now, and the Mariners probably need to add a relief arm or two to supplement the bullpen’s efforts, and they can only carry 13 arms, so, eight relievers, and there are more than a few mainstays that aren’t likely going anywhere, led by Andres Munoz and Matt Brash.
Murfee, who will enter 2023 with less than a year of service, putting him on track to be a Super Two after the 2024 season, but not free agency until after the 2027 season, doesn’t throw hard (88-90 mph), but pounds the zone from a low arm slot and his slider is of the frisbee variety and he commands it very well.
He’s not going to return an everyday player by himself without Seattle taking on a bigger contract, but could be a nice secondary piece in a mid-range trade or a tertiary piece in a larger deal.
Considering the Mariners have Juan Then and Prelander Berroa on the brink of the majors as reliever options, and currently have Luke Weaver on the 40-man, Murfee could very well be expendable in a deal that helps the roster.
10. Matt Festa, RHR
Festa, despite a rather ordinary fastball in terms of velocity (92.6 mph), can miss bats with it, setting up a slider that at times was plus with late break. He whiffed over 28% of the batters he faced, but fell behind a little often and suffered at the hands of the gopher ball.
Festa, however, will be three full years off Tommy John surgery and is cleared to go through not only a normal offseason again, but one that includes velocity-aimed training. Another tick on the heater could go a ong way for Festa, who did not give up a lot of hits with the fastball, but did allow six homers with the pitch.
Long story short, Festa is not far from being a legitimate high-end middle reliever. He often flashed that kind of ability in 2022 — he was nails in July and August — and remains cheap for another two seasons, depite already being 30 (in March).
So, why is here on this list? All of the above. Seattle doesn’t have the market cornered on acquiring players right before they peak. Festa could be a piece in a larger trade, which is the only way I see him being moved, since, like Murfee, he’s an assett, not a prospect or long shot.
Of course, with Erik Swanson now in Toronto, Seattle is even more likely to add to the bullpen this winter than before, but that doesn’t mean one of the middle-innings arms can’t be shipped out in a trade.