Reassessing the Mariners Roster, Needs, and Options to Fill Them
The club's needs haven't changed in a month, but the supply certain has.
When the offseason began for the Seattle Mariners the roster had a handful of needs, varying a bit depending on who you ask.
For me, it was like this, in no particular order:
2B or SS with a plus bat
OF with above-average or better bat
Two high-leverage relievers
OF or combo OF/DH with average or better bat
It’s been 70 days since the LDS loss to division-rival Houston, and their haul looks like this:
2B Kolten Wong ( Proj. 2.4 fWAR via Steamer)
OF Teoscar Hernandez (2.1)
RHR Trevor Gott (0.1)
49 tweets about last season (really)
57 stories about Rick Rizzs loving the holidays (OK, not quite 57)
It doesn’t look like a lot.
Now, for purposes of fairness and full disclosure, the Mariners have done quite a bit since the start of 2022 in terms of the roster which will impact 2023.
Found their star in CF Julio Rodriguez, and extended him for essentially his entire career
Developed a second frontline starter in George Kirby to join Logan Gilbert and the veterans in one of the better rotations in baseball
Added a top-of-the-rotation starter in Luis Castillo in a trade with the Cincinnati Reds
Found their catcher in Cal Raleigh, who happens to be a plus bat
By my count, the club still has holes:
Bullpen is still short an arm; I opined in the Dec. 23 episode of Baseball Things how I don’t really love the approach the club has had with the bullpen so far. Adding a proven, reliable arm seems necessary to avoid hoping several things go right that never have yet.
The lineup improvements made so far are leaning on Wong (proj. 109 wRC+ via Steamer) over what Adam Frazier gave the club this past season (1.1 fWAR, 81 wRC+), Hernandez’s (143 G, proj. 119 wRC+) chances to play 130-plus games over what Mitch Haniger gave the club a year ago (57 G, 113 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR), and internal development.
Let’s talk about that last part a little bit.
It’s reasonable to think the Mariners can get more offense out of J.P. Crawford, maybe even Ty France, and Rodriguez in Year 2. It’s not out of the realm of possibility Raleigh pushes north of the 121 wRC+ he posted in 2022. Left field and DH may be the keys. The Mariners were 19th in baseball with a wRC+ of 88 from its DHs in 2022, and 15th in left field with a 107 wRC+ and 20th at 1.6 fWAR. There’s room for more at both spots.
The club would probably be happy with Jesse Winker’s 109 wRC+ in left field or DH in 2023, but his defense destroyed his value. Jarred Kelenic is a massive defensive upgrade, but he’s yet to hit, suggesting one significant question mark.
The Mariners have hinted, and then some, a a time share of sorts in left field with Kelenic and a veteran such as current free agent A.J. Pollock who typically has hit left-hand pitching very well. But the time share partner has yet to be acquired, and the DH, if the season started tomorrow, is probably Cooper Hummel, who belongs nowhere near the starting lineup of a club believing it has a shot at the postseason, let alone a World Series.
As a result, Seattle is two offensive players short, minimum. PoBOps Jerry Dipoto (I told you I was going to call him that), GM Justin Hollander (desperately needs a nickname), and skipper Scott Servais also have expressed the wish for an infielder who can help the corner spots — something additionally discussed in the Dec. 23 episode of the podcast.
If Seattle adds a left-field partner for Kelenic, a DH, and the infielder, that’s three offensive players that are not yet on the team.
While I doubt the Mariners make any asset-heavy addition to the bullpen this winter, at least two of the other three pieces will likely require something that puts a dent in the resource tank. It’s conceivable the infielder is an inexpensive signing or small trade, but the two hitters are going to cost a bit.
The Mariners also could add a starting pitcher and move either Chris Flexen or Marco Gonzales, or both, to create roster space for higher-floor, higher-upside arms in the rotation and bullpen.
On my list, that’s three position players and two arms, and that’s assuming the Mariners get out of Gott what they think they can, because he’s never been more than a serviceable middle reliever, and he’s been a lot less than that for half his career.
Let’s look at the free agent options left that may fit what the Mariners are looking to do.
Outfielders: Need 2 to fill the RH left field portion of the lineup, one to give the lineup a viable option at DH. The DH doesn’t have to be an outfielder if the Kelenic buddy is acquired.
AJ Pollock
Adam Duvall
Tommy Pham
Jurickson Profar
Robbie Grossman
Chad Pinder
Andrew McCutchen
Brian Anderson
Trey Mancini
Pollock, 35, has a long track record of hitting lefties and was an everyday player for 10 seasons, though he’s been injury prone for most of it. He’s also a capable defender. I wouldn’t expect a lot of power, but Pollock is one year removed from a 137 wRC+ season, and he’s never struck out at league averages or higher — not once in his career, including 2022, when his hard-hit rate was again over 40%.
Mancini and Grossman aren’t good outfielders, but Grossman has usually raked versus lefties, and Mancini, despite an uneven 2022, has always been above-average, too.
Pinder might be the lowkey best fit here after Pollock, but it’d sure be fun rooting for McCutchen, who at 36 was still slightly above average versus left-handed pitching in ‘22.
Infielders: The club has termed this a “corner” guy, but as I discussed on the podcast any infield “bat” acquired could serve as the DH when he’s not starting in the field. One of the trade suggestions I made in the episode is a natural second baseman with power and the ability to play third base.
Not much going on in free agency from an infielder standpoint at this stage of the offseason. Castro is a bad 3B glove who makes contact and can hit for some average, but not much power.
Rios has huge raw power and showed flashes in 2022 with the Dodgers, and might be the best fit here. He’s not a great defender at third, but he’s passable, and he batted .244 with a .500 slug this past season that resulted in a 120 wRC+. Sounds like a nice flier to me. I’d bet on OVER 3.5 bombs off the Hit-it-Here Cafe.
Starting Pitcher: The key here is the arm acquired has to be an upgrade over Gonzales/Flexen without the cost of acquisition defeating the purpose, including the draft pick loss the club could incur.
Nathan Eovaldi (QO)
Michael Wacha
Johnny Cueto
It’s a short list, and Eovaldi costs a pick.
Included in the cost-benefit analysis, though, is the freedom to move Flexen and/or Gonzales and creating a bit more payroll flexibility. Flexen is guaranteed $8 million next season, while Gonzales is owed $18.5 million through 2024. Ideally, the club upgrades the No. 5 spot in the rotation and trades both of the aforementioned arms. Depth be-damned.
Relievers: The clubs needs two, but one could argue one is fine and then react over the course of the season with the farm system or a July trade.
Andrew Chafin, LH
Brad Hand, LH
Matt Moore, LH
Corey Knebel, RH
Will Harris, RH
Will Smith, LH
Michael Fulmer, RH
It’s a shallow crop remaining, but a few of them are worthy targets.
Of course, free agency isn’t the only way to acquire players. The likes of Bryan Reynolds, Joey Wendle, Brandon Lowe, Randy Arozarena, Randal Grichuk, Lane Thomas, Tyler O’Neill, Michael A. Taylor (great fit), and Gavin Sheets, among others, all could be fits in one way or the other, as well as arms such as Freddy Peralta, Blake Snell, Tarik Skubal, Pablo Lopez, JT Brubaker, Hunter Harvey, Kyle Finnegan, Duane Underwood Jr., and Scott Barlow can all be had at some price. Each has been linked to some degree of availability since July.
While the Mariners sit back and wait for clearance free agents and the trade market to develop in their direction, the options are being removed every week. There are still 90-plus days until the start of the 2023 season, however. Let’s see if Dipoto and company have some things up their sleeve that make some of the grieving about the lack of free=agent activity subside.
Good article. I'd rather sign Profar and Castro of the players you listed. I'd rather roll the dice with the current starters than sign one of the available free agents. Eovaldi would be nice, but he is not worth giving up a draft pick because of the QO, especially at the age of 32. Getting a solid vet lefty reliever and another righty as well, is going to be needed as you have stated.