Removing Bryce Miller after 78 pitches?
I didn't hate the decision at all, but, let's talk it through.
Bryce Miller was fantastic versus the Brewers in Milwaukee Saturday, perhaps the best start of his career considering quality of stuff and command rather than staring at a stat line.
After a nine-pitch seventh, the Seattle Mariners pulled Miller in favor of the bullpen in a 4-0 game. You all saw what happened after that. Austin Voth served up a two-run homer and Gabe Speier walked two batters setting up a sac-fly to cut the lead to one.
Mind you, aside from the casual comment, no one would be talking about this had Voth not allowed the Jackson Chourio home run.
In the big picture, I’m 50-50 on the decision to go to the bullpen in the eighth with Miller sitting at 78 pitches, particularly after slicing through the 4-5-6-7 hitters on nine pitches in the seventh, despite a leadoff single by Willy Adames.
I don’t believe the decision was bad. It’s the second start of the season, he averaged 84 pitches per start last season, threw 91 in his first outing, he’d pitched terrific in this one, the bullpen is rested… OK, fine, get him out feeling GREAT about this start, and avoid the chance he gets into any trouble at all and gets beyond 90 pitches, something he’s done just eight times in 26 career starts coming into Saturday.
On the other side, Miller was dealing, it was the 8-9-1 hitters due up, and starting the inning with Miller also would have been entirely reasonable. Perhaps have the bullpen ready, but let Miller get to 85-90 pitches as long the bases are clean? Batter reaches, give him the hook?
Going to Voth, independent of the Miller decision, made sense, since going back-to-back days with Ryne Stanek wasnt in the cards after 21 pitches Friday, particularly in a 4-0 game.
I may have considered going to Speier to start the frame, though.
It was R-L-R due up, and Voth has to face three batters. The fourth batter in the inning would be a lefty, too — Brewers leadoff man, Sal Frelick. Speier hadn’t pitched since Monday and was probably getting in the game regardless.
Essentially the club was choosing between Voth facing the lefty Brice Turang, righty Jackson Chourio, then lefty Sal Frelick, or Speier facing Rhys Hoskins, Chourio and either Frelick or a pinch hitter in the right-handed batting Andruw Monasterio or the switch hitting Blake Perkins, neither of whom appear to be any semblance of a better option than Frelock, even versus the lefty.
Why is the Speier scenario better? It either allows Speier to face two lefties in Turang and Frelick and just the one right-handed batter in Chourios, or the Brewers burn their best two available pinch hitters despite not representing the tying run or better.
Plus, Speier is just better than Voth, and more likely to keep the ball in the yard and gather a strikeout.
The key batter faced for Voth was Turang, who singled on a first-pitch 94 mph four-seamer in, a pitch Cal Raleigh wanted up and more out over the plate. Voth missed his spot by a foot.
If Voth keeps Turang off the bases, this whole conversation is different, because even if Chourios still hits the home run, it’s a solot shot.
But it’s a bit of a butterfly effect with Turang reaching, since you pitch to batters differently with runners on, even when they don’t threaten the lead being protected.
Instead, it’s two-run shot, which led to Christian Yelich standing in the box with a chance to tie the game, both Willy Adames and Rhys Hoskins facing the lefty with a chance to take the lead, and finally one of the more uncertain relievers in the bullpen tasked with getting the final out of the inning with the go-ahead run on base.
Subscribe for as little as $50/yr — monthly options available — for prospect rakings, scouting reports, and video analysis all season long.
Whether Miller records an out or two in the eighth or not, the relief corps has to execute or it gets dicey quickly. Welcome to Major League Baseball. But Servais is damned if he does, damned if he doesn’t, with the end-result being fully reliant on the execution of pitchers.
And with the club’s razor thin rotation depth, the load management effort, preferring to start relievers at the top of the inning (which I don’t love, but I get it), targeting a young pitcher’s long-term confidence and pysche, and the pitcher injury epidemic, not one ounce of me sees reason to question the Mariners’ decision to pull Miller after seven shutout innings.
Plus, the Mariners have something the Brewers no longer do: Luis Urias.
Ooh smashed that ending!