Seattle Mariners Spring Training Positional Rundown and Grades

Pitchers and catchers, people. They report next week.

As of February 9 the Seattle Mariners will start big-league camp with 73 players, including 33 non-roster invitees.

Among those 73 players:

• 38 pitchers, 30 right-handed, 8 left-handed

• 7 catchers

• 16 infielders

• 12 outfielders

ROTATION
The strength of the 40-man and 26-man rosters is starting pitching, particularly the first four in the rotation.

Luis Castillo, RH
Robbie Ray, LH
Logan Gilbert, RH
George Kirby, RH

The No. 5 spot in the rotation isn’t necessarily a strength, but depth beyond it is, enough to buy that last slot in the starting five become a strength during the year.

Marco Gonzales, LH
Chris Flexen, RH
…
Bryce Miller, RH
Taylor Dollard, RH
Emerson Hancock, RH
Tommy Milone, LH
Darrem McCaughan, LH
Justus Sheffield, LH
Nick Margevicius, LH
Bryan Woo, RH

Miller has a chance to make an impact in the rotation, the kind Dollard lacks and Hancock hasn’t shown he’s ready to produce yet. Milone, McCaughan, Margevicius and Sheffield are, well, deeper depth. If they make starts, the Mariners have a problem.

Seattle isn’t flush with aces and Cy Young winners, but they’ll send four above-average to plus arms to the mound to start the season and have a chance at a 15-WAR or better rotation. likely putting them firmly in the Top 7-8 in baseball.

GRADE: 65

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BULLPEN
The Mariners’ bullpen has been good the past two years, and projects to be good again. Whether or not they can be more like 2021 than 2022 is the question, and to fill the gaps the club went out over the offseason and added, um, Trevor Gott, and, uh, Justin Topa.

It’s fair to question the club’s approach to the bullpen, and it’s fair to wonder if Diego Castillo is equipped to handle high-leverage scenarios. It’s also reasonable to believe the club is missing an adequate flock of reliable shut-down arms after trading Erik Swanson.

But the baseball operations department has built good bullpens consistently, including efforts Jerry Dipoto made in Anaheim. It’s simply something they’ve proven to be good at, among other things.

It’s also rational and sensible to believe the bullpen could be better in 2023. Yep, you read that right.

Matt Brash will start 2023 in the bullpen after transitioning a year ago. He flashed last season in a middle role, but has the stuff to pitch in more late leverage spots in 2023.

Paul Sewald, despite being a bit homer prone, shows no signs of falling off a cliff — at least any more than relievers in general.

Andres Munoz could very well continue to trend in the right direction. Matt Festa is a tweak away from being a very good middle arm, and Penn Murfee had an underrated season in the same role.

Gott has had a few solid seasons as a middle innings righty, but is nothing more than a flyer with hopes the Mariners can work their magic, but again, they’ve done this before (Austin Adams, Taylor Williams, for example), so dismissing the idea would not be wise.

Topa brings an interesting profile as a sinker-slider right-hander. He’s up to 99 mph and the slider flashes, carrying good data and chance to take a step toward a true swing-and-miss option.

The projected eight relievers actually look good on paper if you see trend and possibility.

Andres Munoz, RH
Paul Sewald, RH
Matt Brash, RH
Diego Castillo, RH
Penn Murfee, RH
Matt Festa, RH
Trevor Gott, RH
Justin Topa, RH

But wait, if the club doesn’t use Flexen in the rotation or trade him he’ll be part of the bullpen, and if Rule 5 pick Chris Clarke isn’t going to start, he could be pushed to tbe bullpen if the club wants to carry him. This could mean Topa is optioned to start the season. Festa is out of options and Murfee was too good a year ago, so the Mariners may have a decisiont to make.

Topa, however, could be part of a deep group of reinforcements starting the season in the minors.

Justin Topa, RH
Bryce Miller, RH
Prelander Berroa, RH
Isaiah Campbell, RH
Easton McGee, RH
Tayler Saucedo, LH
Gabe Speier, LH
Juan Then, RH
J.B. Bukauskas, RH
Travis Kuhn, RH
Justus Sheffield, LH
Nick Nargevicius, LH
Emerson Hancock, RH
Riley O’Brien, RH
Ryder Ryan, RH
Casey Sadler, RH
Blake Weiman, LH
Taylor Williams, RH
Bryan Woo, RH
*Stephen Kolek, RH

*Non-NRI

It’s an above-average group with some — surprise! — volatility, but there’s also quite a bit of upside, both with the projected Opening Day ‘pen, and those in line to help later in the season.

EDIT: The Mariners have added Carson Fulmer on a minor league deal, and while he’s not been officially extended an NRI, he’s a name to keep in mind.

GRADE: 55+

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CATCHER
Considering the club has a clear No. 1 catcher, they’re in good shape in 2023. But the Mariners have a chance at one of the better catcher combos in baseball.

Cal Raleigh
Tom Murphy

Cooper Hummel could also provide additional depth.

Murphy’s strengths are Raleigh’s … let’s call them weaker strengths, so the two should complement each other well.

The depth below the majors is rather pedestrian, however.

Jacob Nottingham
Brian O’Keefe
Jake Anchia
Matt Scheffler
Harry Ford

Nottingham has started 25 games in the bigs and O’Keefe has one innings in the show. Anchia and Scheffler are the likely Double-A catching duo, and Ford, the org’s top prospect, is probably going to spend the season in High-A Everett.

Raleigh has just one year of good offensive production, but it was a big one and he’s just getting started. Murphy’s health is key — he’s essentilly missed two of the last three seasons due to injury — but he’s not going to be asked to make more than 50-60 starts and hit left-handed pitching.

GRADE: 55+

FIRST BASE
The Mariners employ the seventh most valuable first baseman in baseball over the past two seasons in Ty France, and he’s heading into his age-28 season following a career bests in homers (20), and K% (15.3).

France has never shown significant splits, but the club is better equipped to manage his workload or get him time off if his hand/wrist issues pop up again than in years past (.176/.226/.282, 47 wRC+ in August, 141 wRC+ the rest of the season).

He may already be what he’s going to be, but there’s also a chance France avoids the injury stretch and posts a career season.

GRADE: 55+

SECOND BASE
For the second straight season the Mariners went out and acquired a one-year fix rather than 1) staying in-house with Dylan Moore or 2) going bigger at the position. But Kolten Wong does represent an upgrade to Adam Frazier, even on the downside.

Wong’s worst full season over the last six is better than Frazier’s 2022 by 18% and equal to Frazier’s career 99 wRC+. At 32, Wong’s ZiPS, if you believe in it, is 110, the same as Steamer’s projection for him, and the worst projection for him is the 98 spit out by The Bat X, a system using Statcast as part of its projections.

While multiple minor, magging injuries were part of Wong’s 2022 season, he still posted the best wRC+ of his career, despite his worst versus left-handed pitching. The Mariners, however, appear to have that covered. The roster is built so Moore, a right-handed hitter with a career 112 wRC+ versus lefties (137 in 2022), can play more infield, most specifically second base, to keep Wong protected and rested.

The combination projects well for 2023, so while the club has a long-term issue up the middle (CF, too, but well get there later in the season), there isn’t one at present.

There’s not much immediate help below the projected 26-man, but they shouldn’t need it, sans an utter injury disaster or two. (knock on wood. I SAID KNOCK ON WOOD, PEOPLE).

Kaden Polcovich and Mason McCoy are next in line.

GRADE: 50+

THIRD BASE
Eugenio Suarez is the most likely 2022 regular to take a step back in 2023. He’s coming off a 629-PA, 150-game, 31-HR season in which he posted a 131 wRC+ and 4.1 fWAR, numbers in line with his three best years in Cincinnati.

But all common sense suggests the home ballpark should have hurt Suarez a bit and it didn’t, and he is now 31 years old with a reigning (and career high) 31.2% strikeout rate.

I don’t see the wheels falling off for Suarez, and if either Colin Moran or more likely Tommy La Stella hit well enough to keep Suarez from some right-handed pitching there’s no reason he can’t be solidly above-averae and a 2.5-3 win player still.

La Stella can handle third in short stints just fine, but it’s his bat that’s in question entering 2023. He’s 34 and hasn’t hit much since 2020, overall and versus right-handed arms.

Moore and Haggerty can help here, too. After that, it’s Drew Ellis, Jose Caballero, Jake Scheiner, and Polcovich.

GRADE: 55

SHORTSTOP
For my own sanity, I may try and invent a gadget that blocks out the hitter when J.P. Crawford steps to the plate. It’s so visually painful to watch average bat speed try to whip a barrel as far as Crawford does versus the ungodly velocity and power stuff of today’s pitchers.

If you’re unfamiliar with my disdain — not for J.P., I adore him immensely, but for his setup — here:

The ball is just being release by Yu Darvish. Look where the head of J.P.’s bat is. The path it now must take to get to any pitch is longer than it needs to be, longer than it should be, and limits Crawford’s abilities at the dish. At least IMO, and tbh, I haven’t heard an intelligent argument against the opinion in four years.

Having said that, Crawford still finds a way to get on base and make a lot of contact — very little of it is remotely hard contact, but he doesn’t strike out and will draw some walks.

But I am a bit skeptical of his overall ability to put forth average offensive seasons, despite his track record of doing so — two seasons straight, and a near-average season in 2020, per wRC+.

Why? I’m glad you asked.

Crawford started hot last season, tallying 16 extra-base hits and a .297/.350/.451 slash (149 wRC+) through June 3 (205 PAs). He finished with six homers, and 33 extra-base hits in over 600PAs. The final 398 PAs look like this:

.216/.313/.277.

Yep, a .213 average and .277 slug. That’s just not going to cut it.

But the whole season counts, so he ended the year with a 104 wRC+ and .339 OBP and it looks a lot less alarming than maybe it should be.

Maybe he was hurt and we didn’t know. Maybe he was driven into the ground by the workload, again. Or maybe his swing isn’t conducive to consistent hitting in the big leagues, and the two average seasons only happen again with adjustments by Crawford.

There would be less pressure on Crawford to hit if he were an elite defender, but he’s not, despite one very, very good season in 2020, and an above-average one after that. From a skills and athletic standpoint, Crawford should be above-average. The metrics didn’t like his 2022 performance, however (-11 OAA, -4 DRS), so we’ll see what he comes with in 2023. I don’t think a lot about Crawford’s defense. I think he’s more than fine.

Moore could be a factor here, too, more from a standpoint of making sure Crawford gets proper and strategic rest. He doesn’t own splits, at least not yet, which might push the club to focus more on sitting him versus lefties, but in matchups Wong stays in the lineup versus lefties (there will be some, at least early), Crawford could sit in favor of Moore, who isn’t a great glove at short, but is more than playable there 15-ish times a year.

After Moore, Haggerty is just an emergency option.

GRADE: 45

OUTFIELD
Julio Rodriguez is the anchor here, offering plus-plus offensive value and above average glove work. He’s also a good baserunner, beyond the stolen base totals, and at 22 has every chance to get MVP votes for the next 5-10 years.

How long he can maintain the centerfield defense remains to be seen, but there’s no reason to think much about it now.

Teoscar Hernandez is slated to be the primary right fielder. He’s been fringe-average at bestthe past few years and it’s foolish to expect much more at age 30, but the bat is his calling card, anyway, much like his predecessor Mitch Haniger, who, by the way, is worse defensively.

Hernandez is a well above-average power bat with 25-30 homer power. Despite some swing-and-miss (28.4% in 2022), he battd .267 last year, albeit with a modest .316 OBP. He swings and misses a lot — 15.6% in ‘22, 15.8% for his career — but there are a ton of hard-hit balls (47% career, nearly 53% a year ago).

There’s nothing ‘smoke-and-mirror’ about his 2022 output, and I expect something similar this season, but with a chance at more PAs — he played 131 games last season, 535 PAs, and the Mariners have a plan to rotate Hernandez into the DH spot in attempt to keep his legs fresh.

The question mark is left field, where Jarred Kelenic, and to a lesser extent Taylor Trammell, have a shot to share time with AJ Pollock and (probably) Sam Haggerty (when Pollock is the DH or in RF, it can’t simply be a handedness platoon or the rest strategy will have zero integrity, so Hags will play SOME if he’s on the roster).

It’s clearly Kelenic’s job to lose, but he’s being asked to be consistent, and even if it means letting go of some upside it may be Kelenic’s last chance to play regularly in Seattle. The look is certin to be extensive, but there is a tipping point probably sometime after May and before the deadline in July. Kelenic has to bring offensive value to the table on a consistent basis or a contending team will replace him. Book it.

Pollock has always been good versus lefties, but I can’t see Kelenic (or Trammell) being used purely and exclusively versus right-handed pitchers, at least at the start of the season. It’s worth noting Pollock, now 35, hit just .231/.284/.309 versus right-handers in 2022, though he was very good versus them the prior season.

Cooper Hummel figures into the outfield equation to some extent, perhaps including an Opening Day nod (I much prefer Haggerty, who is better from the right side, but capable from both, and can also play second and run the bases very well), but how much he’ll hit remains to be seen. He’s just as big a question mark at the plate as Kelenic, though, like Kelenic, there is a lot to like.

Beyond the 40-man, it’s Jack Larsen, Zach DeLoach, and Alberto Rodriguez, plus the ability of Moore to play in the corners.

There’s upside here in one of the young guys hitting and holding down left field.

GRADE: 55+

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