The Mariners and the AL Central
As the Mariners seek to add significant pieces to their roster, let's check in and see if the clubs in the American League Central can help.
The Seattle Mariners have roster inefficiencies, to put it kindly, and impact acquisitions, plural, are necessary if they are to take the step they’ve always planned for in their trek to be a consistent World Series contender.
The club has the option to be competitive in free agency, but the market may not bear what the organization needs, payroll aggression or not. A trade or two may be necessary.
President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and GM Justin Hollander — good morning, gentleman — have made several deals with the National League West the past several years, and there may be opportunities to do it again this winter.
Let’s go team-by-team and see what pops.
Detroit Tigers
The last time the Mariners and Tigers made a trade was a three-teamer at the 2014 deadline when Seattle acquried CF Austin Jackson from Detroit, Nick Franklin, Drew Smyly and Willy Adames went to Tampa Bay, and David Price landed in Motown.
This Tigers team is quite different than that one.
Miguel Cabrera has retired, the org has a lot of good young arms and a few key pieces in the lineup, but injuries and the lack of veteran performance has held them bacl the past few years.
The Tigers, on paper, need a lot of pitching if they are to compete in 2024, which seems to be their winter goal. They lack depth and the excess of position players to match with Seattle on the surface, however, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a possible player or two that could fit the Mariners’ present endeavors.
I’d start with infield Colt Keith, a left-handed hitting third baseman with plus power and the plate skills to hit for average and get on base.
Sure, the Tigers may very wel have plans for Keith at the hot corner to complete their big-league infield in 2024, but if they want to infuse more probability into their roster they may be more interested in a veteran, or to go back to Matt Vierling, who flashed (127 wRC+ in 30 games) last season.
Keith appears to be ready for a shot at the majors as early as Opening Day after a .306/.380/.552 slash in the upper minors in 2023.
Other than a prospect or perhaps a fringe roster player, I don’t see anything significant happening here., despite some interesting players, including Kerry Carpenter and some catching depth.
Kansas City Royals
The Royals continue a long rebuild — the club’s last winning season was their World Series triumph in 2015 and they just came off their third 100-plus loss season since they went 80-82 in 2017.
KC does have some interesting pieces, they just don’t have enough of them. Bobby Witt Jr. is a star at shortstop and should be their franchise player for years to come. Freddy Fermin and Nelson Velasquez look like good role players, rookie Michael massey flashed in 2023, and Vinnie Pasquantino can really hit. But there’s a lot of wing-and-a-prayer non-planning going on with the Royals’ lineup, who can’t rely on Salvador Perez to be the middle-of-the-order force he’s been, and have very little veteran presence otherwise.
The arms, including Kris Bubic, Brady Singer and Cole Ragans, have some ability and upside, but the staff, like the lineup, lacks reliability.
Unless the Royals are open to moving Pasquantino, who missed most of 2023 with a torn right shoulder labrum and required late-June surgery, theres probably not much of interest here.
And unlike with the Tigers, Kansas City lacks a high-end prospect expected to push to make in impact as an everyday option this coming season, though I do like OF Tyler Gentry as an average regular as early as 2024, despite questionable long-term power.
Carlos Hernandez, the Royals reliever with the best stuff, is intriguing, but Seattle essentially has a pair of similar arms in their system already with Prelander Berroa ( No. 17) and the newly-acquired Carlos Vargas (No. 16). Hernandez throws hard, but he’s struggled to throw strikes consistently and his arbitartion salaries have kicked in this winter (Super 2).
One caveat with KC: Their direction is unclear, so it’s conceivable everyone but Witt is fair game as they continue to figure out how to stop MLB from contracting them to the Gulf Coast League, suggesting just about anything is possible.
Chicago White Sox
The two obvious names here are RHP Dylan Cease and CF Luis Robert Jr., which undoubtedly would cost a fortune if new White Sox Gm Chris Getz has plans to completely start over with his club.
But it’s pretty clear they are willing to listen on everyone else, including OF/DH Eloy Jimenez, 3B Yoan Moncada, 1B Andrew Vaughn, and even OF Andrew Benintendi, who signed a five-year deal last winter.
Jimenez and Moncada come with extensive injury histories clouding their value. Benintendi batted just .262/.326/.356 in Year 1, and looked like left field was brand new to him for some reason.
Jimenez’s production has been a bit up and down, but he’s just 26 and if he can find a way to stay off the IL has huge power and makes plenty of contact for such a hitter. Even when healthy, Jimenez really shouldn’t play the field as he’s outgrown his athleticism and was never much of a glove, anyway.
He’s signed through this next season at $13 million with two club options for $35 total and a $3 million buyout each, bringing his guaranteed total to $16 million. He’d be an interesting one-year flyer if the trade cost is limited to something south of the Teoscar Hernandez deal, but the White Sox would almost certainly be better off hanging onto him at that point.
Moncada missed 70 games in 2023, more than 50 in 2022, and has just two seasons of 140 or more games (2018, 2021) since breaking into the big leagues in 2016. His performance has flashed, but there’s simply no reason to trust in his health or production. He’s owed $24 million this coming season, plus a $5 million buyout of a $25 million option for 2025.
The White Sox have very little that should interest Seattle outside Cease and Robert, and Robert comes with his own injury history, and his value to the Mariners is less than many other clubs since he wouldn’t play center —where he’s a Top-5 defender.
Vaughn is a very interesting hitter. He’s 25, right-handed, can spell a regular in a corner outfield spot despite belonging at first base, and makes enough contact for a power hitter. He doesn’t walk a lot and the power hasn’t exactly exploded (21 HR in 2023 is a career high), so there’s a lot of Ty France in his production so far, but he’s consistently hitting the ball hard (47.2% career) and gradually his swing is generating more loft.
Vaughn was the best hitter in the 2019 MLB Draft, and scouts generally still see an above-average regular blossoming any day now. If Seattle wanted to hedge their bets at first behind France, Vaughn is an upside play I can get on board with, even though he was the same bat France was in 2023, and his best season in the majors is the 113 wRC+ he posted in 2022.
In general, and considering where the White Sox are, it’s hard to believe they’d part with an impact prospect right now, leaving these two clubs likely a mismatch for a significant trade in the Robert-Cease realm, but something else could work here if the Sox want to cut bait on a player that hasn’t performed yet or has an extensive injury history.
Cleveland Guardians
This is another club which, on the surface, may look to some like an ideal match for Seattle. But despite the Guardians not having vintage Shane Bieber anymore, there isn’t a significant need for starting pitching — they are very good at developing it themselves — and they are even more starved for offense than the Mariners, so Jose Ramirez for young pitching probably isnt in the cards, and Ramirez for pure prospects makes even less sense.
Other names brought up often include Josh Naylor, Cleveland’s second-best hitter and starting first baseman, and Andrés Giménez, a 25-year-old former All-Star who had an off year but still projects very well offensively and defensively as one of the best second baseman in the game.
It is plausible Cleveland moves Bieber, but even their relievers headed for arbitration are first-year eligibles and unlikely to warrant trading to spend payroll more efficiently. But moving a Sam Hentges, Enyel De Los Santos or Eli Morgan to fill another need could very well be on the table.
Still, I see very little here on the 40-man for Seattle, unless the unforeseeable occurs and Cleveland goes into some full-scale rebuild mode.
Minnesota Twins
The Twins are interesting, especially since they have pitching needs as Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda hit the open market and Tyler Mahle recovers from UCL surgery and could miss all of 2024.
They also have a few interesting position players Seattle could covet in certain circumstances.
First, right fielder Max Kepler had his $10 million option picked up, but is set for free agency following next season. He’s a left-handed hitter with power, good-enough contact rates (21.6% K), and plays a very good right field. It’s the not the right-handed hitter Seattle wants, but to some degree Kepler, 30, is simply another Teoscar Hernandez, in theory: A one-year fix at a position of need.
Another interesting player the Twins may be willing to part with is Jorge Polanco. He’s a switch hitter with legitimate ability from both sides of the plate and can play second and third to acceptable levels.
Polanco, 30, is signed through 2024 at $10.5 million, but the club has an option for $12 million ($750,000 buyout) for 2025. Polanco’s last three seasons have produced 118, 119, and 124 wRC+ performances at the plate, and other than a small-sample jack in his strikeout rate in 2023, he’s put up solid contact rates and added average or better power.
The main issue is he’s missed a lot of time the last two years due to injury. The good news on that is it’s one injury (knee) that has done 95% of that damage to his availability.
Considering the current makeup of Mariners infielders — Ty France, Josh Rojas, J.P. Crawford, Luis Urias, Ryan Bliss — Polanco fits. The question here is trade cost, considering the injury risk at hand.
In addition, OF/DH Alex Kirilloff also is interesting, but in his first 700 PAs in the big leagues has had significant problems versus left-handed pitching. I’d be more interested in Trevor Larnach as a depth piece, but Seattle already employs similar players in Cade Marlowe, Jarred Kelenic, Taylor Trammell, and Zach DeLoach.
Perhaps the most intriguing thought I have on the Twins is their farm system. I’m an enormous fan of SS Brooks Lee, who hit .275/.347/.461 split between Double-A and Triple-A last season and looks the part of an average or better shortstop or a plus second base glove. He’s going to see the majors in 2024 and projects offensively as a switch-hitting Michael Young.
It isn’t the best use of resources right now, but in a vacuum a deal centered around Bryce Miller (and a prospect) to grab Lee from the Twins gets me fired up, even though Lee doesn’t necessarily move the needle a ton from an offensive standpoint right away.
The American League Central is an interesting division with a wide array of timeines for its five clubs. There are some potential matches here, including a few prospects Seattle could like enough to infuse into their overall plan for 2024.