The Mariners and the NL East
Might the Mariners match up with a club from the National East this winter?
The Seattle Mariners have roster inefficiencies, to put it kindly, and impact acquisitions, plural, are necessary if they are to take the step they’ve always planned for in their trek to be a consistent World Series contender.
The club has the option to be competitive in free agency, but the market may not bear what the organization needs, payroll aggression or not. A trade or two may be necessary.
President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and GM Justin Hollander — sup, gents? — have made numerous deals with the National League East the past several years, and there may be opportunities to do it again this winter.
Let’s go team-by-team and see what pops, at least in my brain.
New York Mets
No, the Mets aren’t rebuilding, they just pulled off what I think was a rather brilliant trade deadline: While chipping away at their financial commitments moving older players for young talent, they set themselves up to spend again this winter.
At press time, the Mets don’t appear to have a lot of excess anywhere on the roster, but this may change as they begin adding free agents, assuming they do so.
We’ve discussed Pete Alonso already right here, but if the Mets decide to hold Alonso until the deadline or even extend their slugger, a young hitter such as Mark Vientos might be an interesting option for the Mariners.
Other than the ever-present possibility for back-end starters and middle relievers to be moved, and the off-chance the two clubs hook up onthe rare prospect-for-prospect deal, it’s difficult to see anything else making a lot of sense right now. But keep the Mets in mind because they have a new top baseball executive in David Stearns and he’s ultimately going to want to put his own stamp on the club.
Washington Nationals
The Nats remain in rebuilding mode, but they do have a handful of interesting ideas. I’m not all that keen on Lane Thomas and his 109 wRC+, limited defense, and the lack of further upside, but CJ Abrams intrigues despite his sub par 90 wRC+ a year ago at age 22.
Abrams, a natural shortstop, profiles pretty well at second athletically and should be average or better there for years. He has power — 18 homers in 2023 — makes contact (18.3% K rate in 916 career PAs), and the batted ball trends are all ponted in the right direction. He’s a plus-plus runner, too.
The problem is getting the Nationals to part with him in what may look like a sell-low scenario, but trading for the upside isn’t uncommon.
Washington also has some interesting relievers, starting with Hunter Harvey, Kyle Finnegan, and the just-returned-from-UCL-surgery Tanner Rainey. Jordan Weems and Robert Garcia, among others, also come with appealing traits.
I’ve long been intrigued by infielder Luis Garcia, though he’s more of a projection play and not one that warrants regular at-bats starting on Opening Day. He has above-average raw power from the left side, can handle second base, shortstop, and third base, and makes a ton of contact (12.4% K rate in 2023).
He hits a lot of ground balls, limiting his capacity for extra-base damage,but he’s just 23 years of age.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies consider themselves a World Series contender, and they should, having represented the National League in the Fall Classic in 2022 and coming within one game of doing it again this past season.
Dave Dombrowski will be looking to add to his club, not subtract, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t interesting possibilities. If Philly wants to more athletic and defensive minded, allowing Rhys Hoskins to walk via free agency and putting Nick Castellanos or Kyle Schwarber on the trade block could open roster spots for trade targets or free agents, and playing time for the likes of Johan Rojas, who flashed in limited time last season and can really go get it in center field.
If the Phillies go after a Matt Chapman, the club could push Alec Bohm across the diamond to first base, or move one of the aforementioned Castellanos or Schwarber there and trade Bohm. The former No. 3 overall pick is a fine player, but has never really profile well for a corner spot, providing batting average, but limited on-base value and power.
He’s still 27, however, has always made consistent contact, and his batted ball data is consistently solid. He’s simply yet to generate the consistent leverage to dial up the extra bases to match all the metrics, and some clubs may still see that in him, potentially including Seattle. But if he’s a first baseman, and defensively it’s where he belongs, the Mariners incumbent, Ty France, is at least as good a bet to hit in 2024 as Bohm.
I do wonder if the two clubs could be a trade fit in a buy siuation for the Phillies, perhaps helping Seattle set up another move for their roster. Might Eugenio Suarez interest the Phils? Just a thought.
Miami Marlins
Which direction the new leadership in Miami is allowed to take is yet to be determined. But suddenly, with the trade of Pablo Lopez last winter and the injury to Sandy Alcantara late in the year, the Marlins are short on starting pitching.
They have several interesting arbitration decisions, too, including Lusi Arraez, whom the new front office may feel is an ideal sell-high candidate after the year he just had. Arraez is slated to make at least $10 million via arbitration. If he was a legitimate second baseman I’d suggest Seattle make the call, but Arraez is limited, to be kind, anywhere but first base, making him a misfit to some degree just about everywhere.
First baseman Josh Bell, who chose to stay in Miami rather than opt out and become a free agent could be trade ammo for the Marlins, who may want to play Jake Burger there regularly and open third base for Jacob Amaya and/or Jordan Groshans to share with Jon Berti.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. will be interesting until he’s not, and at 25 with 53 homers and 59 stolen bases in 300 games in the bigs he’s still on the radar. I never loved the move to center and still think second base is his best spot, but there’s a lot to like about his potential at the plate. He has had problems staying on the field, however, and hasn’t exactly been a model of on-base ability, so there are flaws to consider.
Atlanta Braves
Perhaps the most talented roster in baseball, the Braves hit the offseason in need of starting pitching, considering injuries and Charlie Morton hitting the open market. Morton could return, but with Kyle Wright out for the year and the chances Michael Soroka is non-tendered ($3 million arbitration projection), the club is likely to need multiple rotation additions.
One has to wonder if Alex Anthoupolos might considering moving second baseman Ozzie Albies for pitching, but there are multiple options in free agency that seem to be fits, led by lefties Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Montgomery, and Blake Snell, plus right-hander Aaron Nola. Both Japanese lefties are sensible, too. And though Yoshinobu Yamamoto may require a larger financial investment than Atlanta generally wants to commit to free agents, he’s 25 years old, eliminating a lot of the risk on long-term deals.
Albies could net the club a pretty good starter, at least in theory, with four years left on his very team-friendly deal and entering his age-27 season. Albies is coming off a career year of 33 homers and a 124 wRC+. Not sure there’s a match with Seattle as both rosters are currently constructed, but things can change in a hurry. Should Seattle add a quality starting pitcher, they could decide to shop one of theirs, possibly including right-hander Logan Gilbert.
Personally, I wouldn’t consider moving Gilbert for Albies, despite the extra year of control, mostly because I don’t buy Albies’ chances of repeating his 2023 performance and see him more as the bat he was his first six seasons when he hovered between average (100 wRC+) and above average (110, 116), not counting his injury-impacted 2022 when he posted a 94 wRC+ in 64 games. He’s also showing mixed results defensively the past few years, though generally he’s been average or so at second.