The Seattle Mariners and the NL Central
Might the Mariners match up on a trade once again with an NL Central club?
The Seattle Mariners have roster inefficiencies, to put it kindly, and impact acquisitions, plural, are necessary if they are to take the step they’ve always planned for in their trek to be a consistent World Series contender.
The club has the option to be competitive in free agency, but the market may not bear what the organization needs, payroll aggression or not. A trade or two may be necessary.
President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and GM Justin Hollander have made numerous deals with the National League Central the past several years, and there may be opportunities to do it again this winter.
Let’s go team-by-team and see what pops, at least in my brain.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are not rebuilding, just retooling, so this isn’t an offseason we’re likely to see them move a significant veteran piece for prospects, but they do need some pitching, particularly if Marcus Stroman opts out of his contract and leaves via free agency. But do they have what Seattle needs to pry away an arm?
There may be a role player or reliever that makes sense here, unless Seattle finds themselves a few steps up the ladder and looking to add a starting pitcher, and the Cubs feel like Kye Hendricks’ final season before he hits the open market is best spent in the form of another player or two. The Cubs have a $16 million option on the right-hander, which is probably steep for the Mariners, considering my best guess on their payroll, and the projected value of Hendricks
Other than that, I don’t see the two clubs as a trade fit. Seattle needs hitters, and the Cubs don’t appear to have the depth to spare an everyday player such as Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, or Christopher Morel, especially since they may lose Cody Bellinger to free agency.
Pittsburgh Pirates
A year ago all the chatter was about switch-hitting outfielder Bryan Reynolds, and as I discussed in a little more detail on Baseball Things this week, I’m not sure it won’t be again, despite the club and player agreeing on a long-term extension. The trade and free agent markets aren’t exactly flush with long-term lineup options, the Pirates still appear a few years from competing, remain short on pitching, and may be able to cash in on the additional control years they bought when they extended the soon-to-be 29-year-old Reynolds through the 2030 season with an option for 2031 at team-friendly salaries.
The Pirates also may look at the two remaining control years on 27-year-old Mitch Keller — and the fact the right-hander finally put it all together in 2023 — as an opportunity to cash in, and look toward 2025 and beyond more than next year.
Keller would garner a lot of trade interest, perhaps including from Seattle, depending on what it costs them to add the necessary offensive pieces. There does not seem to be any other full-time fits in Pittsburgh which Seattle should be looking at right now, at least from where I sit.
Cincinnati Reds
Seattle has made two blockbuster deals with the Reds recently, acquiring Luis Castillo, Eugenio Suarez, and Jesse Winker for a slew of prospects, including Noelvi Marte, who debuted in the majors in 2023.
But the Reds may not be done moving talent to make way for younger players with more upside. Jonathan India, a decent hitter who may have some upside left — I sorta compared his remaining upside to a certain All-Star in the latest episode of the podcast right here, though no one should view India as a potential long-term fix at second base. He’s bad there, and probably ends up at third or as a multi-position player as long as he hits. In that episode, I suggested a role for India in Seattle moving forward.
Not that Seattle should get involved, but I do wonder if Cincinnati doesn’t field calls for right-handed reliever Alexis Diaz this winter, too. He’s pretty good, but I’m not sure the Reds are better with him than what they can get for him in trade, so I’d at least explore the possibility if I were them.
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St. Louis Cardinals
We’ve talked a lot about the potential trade match of the Cardinals and Mariners because, well, the national media, and to a lesser extent the local folks too, kept talking about it being obvious, when it really isn’t. The flaw in the the theory that since St. Louis needs pitching and Seattle has it, and Seattle needs hitting and St. Louis has it, is Seattle does not have starting pitching to spare.
Robbie Ray’s return is wildly unpredictable and he may not be back to form until 2025, and Marco Gonzales is on his way out of Seattle, either before, during, or after next season, and hasn’t pitched well enough since 2020 to suggest he should be part of the full-time plan for 2023. Not if the club wants to truly contend.
But there are interesting pieces in St. Louis that can help, including Nolan Gorman, Lars Nootbaar, and Brendan Donovan. The Cardinals, could choose to go the reboot route and just add as much pitching as they can without moving significant bats, or do a slight retool by trading Paul Goldschmidt for pitching, signing a starter or two via free agency and making a run with Jordan Walker at first, Nolan Arenado at third, and the same supporting cast s a year ago to go with a revamped rotation. That might be a steep ask of the front office, considering how few returning answers they have in the pitching department. If the Cardinals choose to be more aggressive, however, they could put a bat or two on the market.
I still don’t see a good match between the Cards and Mariners ,though, because until the dynamic changes with Seattle’s lack of dispensable starting pitchers, it’s the same old story. The Mariners’ foundation is their rotation. It’s why they build their bullpens the way they do, and it allows them to put more resources into other areas. Replace an inexpensive, controllable arm such as Bryce Miller or Logan Gilbert with an older, pricier player, and the aforementioned foundation is weakened. Still, it’s one way to go about things if you’re Seattle this winter.
I’m not saying they can’t ever trade from their rotation, either, but trading from what they currently have available to them (the projected starting five plus Gonzales, Emerson Hancock, and maybe Ray late in the year to some degree) puts a lot of pressure on the return. In such a scenario, taking signioficant risk would be apprehensible, such as, say, trading Gilbert for a hitter and that hitter being any kind of question mark in 2024 and beyond.
I’m not sure the Cardinals have a controllable player that fits Seattle’s criterion, other than perhaps Arenado, who may be leaving his prime. But Walker, who has massive upside beyond the Julio Rodriguez range at the plate, and is controlled for six-plus more seasons, would be a great idea, it’s just laughable to believe the Cardinals would move him right now in anything but a no-brainer trade that fed their short-term needs and their long-term aspirations. Translation: Gilbert would just be a starting point..
Tyler O’Neill is probably available, but doesn’t fit the Mariners’ specific needs for reliable offense, contact, and healthy players, and his performance has been spotty. Alec Burleson profiles as a major-league quality hitter, but is probably a first-base only guy and is far from a proven commodity. Dylan Carlson’s inconsistencies have driven his value down, too.
A listener asked me if I’d trade Bryan Woo for Lars Nootbaar and in a vacuum I might, but considering it’s six years of Woo for four seasons of Nootbaar, who doesn’t bring a ton of upside and might simply be the above-average hitter he was in 2023, I think I can add similar production without moving Woo, Miller, or Gilbert.
I don’t see a major deal happening between the two clubs. I’m passing on the Cardinals as a match for a major trade that lands the Mariners an above-average to plus everyday answer to their lineup, at least considering the makeup of Seattle’s roster today. Things can change quickly when rosters are updated with activity.
Milwaukee Brewers
There are some interesting ideas in Milwaukee, too, but like with St. Louis and the Chicago White Sox, it depends on the direction the front office chooses to go this offseason.
With Brandon Woodruff likely out for all of 2024, and both Freddy Peralta and Corbin Burnes heading into their final season before free agency, the Brewers have some decisions to make. They could decide to retool or rebuild in some manner, by moving an arm or two, but also shortstop Willy Adames, who also hits free agency after the 2024 campaign.
Adames had a down year at the plate in 2023, but is a good shortstop with power and entered this past season with four above-average offensive season in five years. He just turned 28 and despite the mediocre production did have 24 home runs and a career high 11.1% walk rate.
Adames, a right-handed hitter, is good enough with the glove to push J.P. Crawford to second base, but he also may hit enough to replace Eugenio Suarez at third base in two years. Adames is represented by CAA, and the Dominican native may be amenable to an extension in Seattle.
The Mariners could have some interest in Peralta, too, but I can’t see Christian Yelich being on the radar, despite the former MVP’s solid 2023, his best since he finished second in the NL MVP voting in 2019. He’s 32 in December and still owed more than $130 million guaranteed over six additional seasons.
Milwaukee has some fringe players that could be of interest, too, including Rowdy Tellez. Tellez, a first baseman with big lefty power, is due around $6 million in arbitration is almost certain to be non-tendered, sending him out onto the market. But Tellez may be nothing more than 2024s Mike Ford, who helped Seattle quite a bit, but shouldn’t be a major part of anyone’s regular lineup.
If Seattle believes Adames is a solid bounceback candidate like I do, I’d work some magic whispers on the extension idea to the point of at least kick the tires here. He’s not an elite player, so we’re not talking $200 million, though the market may have to be reset after last winter’s elite middle infielders all warranted bigger deals.
A year ago, Swanson, also at age 29, landed a seven-year, $177 million deal from the Cubs, the smallest of the shortstop deals and nearly identical to what the Texas Rangers gave Marcus Semien the year before.
Swanson, was coming off a better season than Adames just had, albeit not a great one (116 wRC+), and there are a lot of paralells between Adames and the Cubs’ new leader. But right now my best guess on Adames is seven years and $150 million if he has a good 2024, but an extension executed prior to his “good 2024” could look more team friendly in the 5-6 year, $130-140 million range. Team takes risk, potential payoff rises.
I’m not suggesting Adames is some kind of star, but this is the going rate for middle infielders who can hit, and there aren’t many options the next few years at either short or second. If Seattle wants to add a multi-year answer there this winter, they could do a lot worse than aggressively exploring Adames.
My gut tells me they don’t have Adames on their radar, but there are also a some indications the way Dipoto and Hollander want to do business will change some this offseason, most of all Dipoto’s own statements.
Also, what’s up, Jerry and Justin? Happy Halloween, gentleman.