There's only so much the Mariners can do to fix things right now
Outside help may ultimately be necessary, but it's tough to see a significant addition made this early in the season.
The Seattle Mariners haven’t played good baseball in 2022. They’ve had their moments (the first homestand), but through 31 games there has been a lack of consistent goodness from every unit a baseball team deploys.
The starting rotation ranks No. 18 in baseball in ERA, No. 27 in FIP, and No. 22 in xFIP, having recorded just 13 outs collectively after the sixth inning, and none after the seventh. It’s early, and there have been bright spots, but the Mariners need more from their starting pitchers, even beyond whatever level upgrade George Kirby is over Matt Brash.
The offense has sputtered for the last two weeks and its lone strong stretch came during the first three home sets. Several key hitters have yet to perform much, led by Jesse Winker, who was a top 30 hitter in baseball 2017-2021 with a .288/.385/.505 slash. To inflame the situation, the lineup’s anchor, Mitch Haniger, has just 36 plate appearances due to injury and a bout with COVID-19, and isn’t expected back for weeks.
Particularly, small-sample size notwithstanding, the club’s defense hasn’t been good, either, but the issues have come from unexpected sources. With Jarred Kelenic (4 DRS, 2 OAA) and Julio Rodriguez ( 3 DRS, 3 OAA) faring well defensively, the outfield hasn’t been the strain it was expected to be this season. So far, Ty France hasn’t quite been the glove he was a year ago, but Eugenio Suarez (-1 DRS, 2 OAA) has been as playable as Kyle Seager was in 2021 (-3 DRA, 4 OAA). The mistakes have been the issue, and they’ve primarily come from the plus-gloved J.P. Crawford and from the steady, above-average Adam Frazier.
If the outfield can sustain the majority of their early success, the defense won’t end up a problem.
The bullpen is in the same boat. Diego Castillo has three straight poor appearances resulting in nine earned runs on 11 hits, and a few others have their dings over the first six weeks, but this isn’t a legitimate problem area.
Ken Giles, barring a setback, should return in June, Sergio Romo likely gets back in a matter of days after starting a rehab assignment in Triple-A this week, and three of the kids — Penn Murfee (5G, 2.64 xFIP, 42% K, 4% BB), Wyatt Mills (5G, 3.93 xFIP, 17% K, 0% BB), Andrés Muñoz (11G, 1.92 xFIP, 42% K, 12% BB) — have pitched well. In addition, Erik Swanson has been terrific (13 G, 1.63 xFIP, 40% K, 1.9% BB).
The Mariners will figure out the bullpen, likely without major additions from outside the organization, and it’s not as if they’ve been bad. They’ve just had more bumps in the road than is ideal.
While the rotation and lineup may very well need tweaking beyond the internal options, it’s unlikely anything significant will be added from the outside anytime soon. Maybe Kyle Lewis can help the offense from within. Maybe Brash can add to the club in a relief role. Haniger and Tom Murphy will eventually return. But it’s difficult to believe that will be enough.
That, however, isn’t new. That’s where Seattle was when the season began. The Mariners were a club that probably wins between 81-87 games without adding more help. And that’s still a very real possibility. I’d still bet on at least .500.
To get beyond that range of wins and a Wild Card-contending season, though, the Mariners need more work from GM Jerry Dipoto. We knew that in December, we knew that in March, we know that now.
I’ve opined on Baseball Things recently the rotation is where the Mariners should focus. Not because they couldn’t use another big bat — heck, they need one — but because it’s a lot more difficult to see the right one becoming available for a trade cost Seattle should stomach. And there already are starting pitchers the club can call about in Reds right-handers Tyler Mahle (7 GS, 3.52 FIP, 4.43 xFIP, 23% K, 12% BB) and Luis Castillo (just returned from IL), and Oakland ace Frankie Montas (7GS, 3.61 FIP, 3.26 xFIP, 24% K, 7% BB). Several others, such as Philadelphia’s Zach Eflin and Kyle Gibson (7GS, 2.55 xFIP, 3.45 FIP, 22% K, 9% BB), and perhaps even Cleveland ace Shane Bieber (6GS, 3.35 FIP, 3.56 xFIP, 22% K, 7% BB), and Boston righty Nathan Eovaldi (6GS, 4.67 FIP, 2.91 xFIP, 26% K, 4% BB) could become targets, too.
Of course, the Mariners can add to both the rotation and the offense. But doing that anytime soon seems as improbable as Roy Kent talking about his feelings on national television. Right now, all but maybe one club falls into the “still in the mix” category, realistically.
But in a month, even, it’s hard to imagine so much changing we see teams sell aggressively in what would be six weeks before the deadline. In 3-4 weeks, teams are still going to fall into one of the three following categories.
1. Still in the mix. Right now, literally every club in baseball outside the Cincinnati Reds (10.5 GB in the NL Wild Card race already — eeek) is within shouting distance of one of the three Wild Card berths in each league. The Tigers have the worst record in the American League and they’re just 7.5 games back in the too-early-to-care Wild Card race. While it will look different after another 20-30 games, how much different? Are eight teams going to be 10-15 back? Highly unlikely.
2. Not really in the mix, but don’t want to admit it by throwing in the towel in June. Detroit isn’t cutting bait on the season after 50-60 games. Boston? Nope. Arizona is doing their best impression of the Colorado Rockies and extending their own, spending money, and pretending to be a real team. They’re not selling off major roster parts.
3. Looking like buying big is sure out of the question, but don’t have major pieces to offer. Even if the Royals, for example, feel they’re not in it after 60 games here on about June 15, what impact players do they have fitting of a significant summer trade?They may have a reliever or two, a role player, or a Zack Greinke to put on the block, but the better players are young and/or under club control and aren’t going anywhere. Cubs? Nope. Phillies? They’re certain to hang on and hope the roster plays up to its full potential. They have a ton of money invested, and selling off in June seems like the last thing on their list.
Oakland might be the one exception here with Montas, but even the A’s aren’t in a hurry.
Seattle is going to have to remain patient for a little bit, other than a few tweaks they cane make from within.
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