Thoughts on Dipoto, prospects, & the offseason

My brain is full of thoughts. Let's empty it out.

It’s been a busy few weeks for the Seattle Mariners. They’ve essentially fallen out of the playoff race in the American League, to the point they’d need a baseball miracle to get in. They’ve replaced their manager and hitting coach. And the organization decided to bring back the leaders of their baseball operations department.

While I despise the Scott Servais decision, as I discussed here, I do agree with the move to stick with Jerry Dipoto for at least another year. Despite the need for considerable more offense, this roster is too far down the road to make that kind of change, especially considering the opportunity ahead of them. What do I mean? Let me explain.

My largest complaint about the Dipoto-led front office is the past year or two they have held too tight onto their better prospects, mostly because the value of the top talents remained immature. Prospects in Class-A typically don’t carry the kind of value clubs would like to get. The turning point often is ample time in High-A — or success in Double-A where just three of the Mariners’ top 12 prospects have reached this season.

But the club pulled the trigger on a deal headlined by a High-A prospect (Noelvi Marte) when they acquired Luis Castillo from the Cincinnati Reds, and that trade has turned out more than fine for Seattle. Attempting to avoid giving away young talent is understandable. Sometimes it’s just part of the cost of winning.

While Dipoto has the freedom to make these kinds of deals, we also know part of the reason it’s so crucial to develop well and consistently is ownership is never going to spend enough to cover holes in the roster with free agents or high-salaried veterans via trade.

Somewhere along the way, between the end of the 2022 campaign and the start of this season, such a deal was sorely necessary, almost regardless of the cost. A legitimate, multi-year, middle-of-the-order alpha with power, contact, and a track record was more than in order. It was a must and didn’t happen.

From all I can gather from the industry, it’s clear any qualifying hitter for two-plus seasons would have cost an exorbitant price in prospects. It likely would have taken three top 10 talents, two from the top five or so, and perhaps a fourth and fifth player — maybe even a major-leaguer — depending on the exact player and control years.

But… that’s the cost of winning.

Entering the 2024-25 offseason, though, so much more of that farm talent has either shown out in Everett (Michael Arroyo, Lazaro Montes) or had success in Double-A (Harry Ford, Cole Young). Doing those things doesn’t inherently increase a prospect’s value, but generally, this is about when prospects have matured enough where clubs, including their own, have convincing grasps on what they are, making it less likely the Mariners surrender three Top 10 prospects at 70 cents on the dollar — each.

While we’re likely to hear and maybe even see Dipoto forced to make deals that clear budget (including Castillo), the opportunity to make an impact trade with prospects — without moving one of the five starting pitchers — is there to some significant degree. It’s still not going to be cheap, but the package will make a lot more sense than at any time in the last three years when it would have simply cost an extra player or two in comparison.

Dipoto and his group know this system, they know this roster. The right move is to ask this group to make that kind of deal, not a new GM, who will undoubtedly bring in his own people, and the GM himself will almost certainly be inexperienced.

There is also too many good things happening in this org to clean house right now. Among those is the draft, a necessity with this kind of ownership approach. This club has drafted very well in the last nine drafts, and it’s been top 5 or so in the league the last seven:

2018: Logan Gulbert, Cal Raleigh, Penn Murfee
2019: George Kirby, Brandon Williamson, Isaiah Campbell, Levi Stoudt, Cade Marlowe
2020: Emerson Hancock, Zach DeLoach
2021: Harry Ford, Edwin Arroyo, Michael Morales, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo
2022: Cole Young, Tyler Locklear, Walter Ford, AJ Izzi, Troy Taylor
2023: Cole Emerson, Jonny Farmelo, Tai Peete, Ben Williamson
2024: Jurrangelo Cijntje, Ryan Sloan, Josh Caron

The only issue with the drafts above is the hitters have been too young and inexperienced to be ready to make an impact in the majors.

By the way, how different would the Mariners lineup be in 2024 if 2016 first-round pick Kyle Lewis stayed healthy? He was Dipoto’s first draft pick as Mariners GM.

The leash on Dipoto should not be long, however. There should and will be pressure on him to deliver a top-10 offense (or so) in 2024, and though flatly using raw runs scored isn’t fair, we know the results this year aren’t close to acceptable. But if ownership isn’t going to help with a reasonable payroll increase, no matter who is pulling the strings it would take a magic trick to make the fixes necessary.

For now, Dipoto and company are the best bets to get the lineup over the finish line. Check back in June, things can change. That’s the way it works.

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Saturday, I wrote at Future Stars Series about six underrated prospects, and one of them happened to be Mariners infielder Michael Arroyo. Using my own notes, plus conversations with a handful of scouts, I may be a bit low on Arroyo, who I have at No. 10 in my final in-season Top 50 prospect rankings update.

Here’s what I wrote about Arroyo and his underratedness Saturday:

Arroyo comes with questions, including his contact rates and future defensive position, but it’s tough to argue with his professional resume.

At age 19, the right-handed hitting Arroyo has posted a .279/.404/.500 slash split between Single-A and High-A, despite being 2-4 years younger than the average pitcher he’s faced.

His swing is fluid and agile, covering the zone well horizontally and down, struggling occasionally with the right-handed breaking ball away and velocity at the top rail. But he generates plus bat speed, uses most of the field, and enters play Sunday with 56 extra-base hits.

There isn’t a lead tool here, but the sum of the parts is, so far, a highly functional hitter with few holes in his swing, average power, and a chance to hit for average and get on base consistently. That’s a good player if Arroyo can smooth out the edges on his defensive play at second base.

Even considering recent exchanges with the industry, I find it difficult to move up Arroyo more than one or two spots, but the more time passes and the more he hits the easier that will become. Probability matters, and he’s starting to erase some doubt about the bat, despite the strikeouts.

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Had Farmelo not missed such a large part of the season with a knee injury, there’s a chance he would have been my top three. And if he returns with no lingering effects next spring, that is exactly what I expect to do early in 2025.

There are a lot of scouts drooling over his game and upside, and believe the progress with his swing is near complete.

”Look, it’s at least 6 power from there (points to center) to there (points to the right field line),” said an AL West rival scout, “and he’s shown he can hit all pitch types and get to just about everything. He sure looked like a centerfielder to me, too. I don;t think stealing bases is going to be a big part of his game when he gets to the majors, but he can go get it, he can throw, and the power will take some pressure off the hit tool as he works through some contact snags.

”My report is pretty glowing. I see (Colt) Emerson, and yes, he’s the guy, but this kid has the star ceiling we’re all looking for down here.”

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As for the Mariners upcoming offseason as a whole, I do think more changes need to be made, perhaps in terms of personnel, but certainly in other ways. I spoke about those things in the latest episode of Baseball Things right here.

In that episode, I also outline the club’s payroll situation for 2025, and opine on what payroll number is ideal this winter.

Hint: It’s not $145 million.