Trade Cost: Bryan Reynolds
Several clubs have interest in trading for Pirates' outfielder Bryan Reynolds, including the Seattle Mariners.
I’ve long believed the asking price for Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds would be one the Seattle Mariners could handle, and would be willing to commit. My issue has always been the specifics: Can the Mariners satisfy the requests of the Pirates, which should require a starting pitcher headliner, and should the club go above and beyond with a trade package to buy the Bucs off such a preference?
Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported Friday the ask from Bryan Reynolds of the Pirates was countered with a six-year, $75 million offer, prompting Reynolds, represented by CAA, to request a trade. And request might be the polite way to put it, since that $75 million offer is at bare minimum $30 million on the soft side.
Reynolds will enter 2023 at 28 years of age coming off a 3-WAR campaign, essentially his third in four seasons. Despite a poor 2020 — a year with numerous strange stat lines for a lot of very good players — the switch-hitting former second-round pick carries a career 126 wRC+ and a slash of .281/.361/.481. We saw what he’s capable of in 2021 when he tossed up a .302/.390/.522 line with 24 homers and a 141 wRC+ in 159 games, so he may be more than a 3-win player for the foreseeable future, particularly if he responds to playing in meaningful games.
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Reynolds also has been pretty healthy in his four seasons, missing 19 games to injury in 2019, three in 2020, none in 2021 and 13 a year ago. He’s experienced in center field where he’s passable but really doesn’t project well, but in limted time in a corner has been very good, as his profile susgests.
He’s consistently good from both sides of the plate, batting .281 in each batter’s box, though there’s a bit more power production as a lefty. Reynolds has regularly posted hard-hit rates over 40%, including 42.9% in 2022 when he ranked in the 66th percentile in the league. His barrels were down this past season (middle of the pack) from his typical 10% range, but his average exit velocity was a career-best 90.2, ranking in the 73rd percentile.
From a scouting standpoint, Reynolds hits the ball hard, covers the plate from both sides, handles the breaking ball (.340 wOBA vs CB, SL), destroys fastballs (.429 wOBA), and is a solid-average runner with a 50+ corner glove. His arm fits best in left field, which is where Seattle would need him, anyway.
Reynolds is a good player. He’s not a superstar likely to tally MVP votes, but he’s a potential multi-time All-Star who offers production, balance, and some length to his performance due to age and the fact he’s club controlled through 2025.
The question for Seattle here isn’t about the long-term contract, it’s the trade cost. Looking at relatively recent deals for corner outfielders of similar stature and control years is one of the better ways to find some proximity to Reynolds’ trade value.
Problem is, the most recent examples have to be adjusted.
Daulton Varsho isn’t the hitter Reynolds is, but he offers catcher versatility, and the Toronto Blue Jays acquired four years of him, rather than the three Reynolds holds right now.
The Jays served the Arizona Diamondbacks six-plus years of one of the game’s best catcher prospects inGabriel Moreno, and two seasons of Lourdes Gurriel, a solid-average offensive corner outfielder worthy of at least platoon energy.
Despite being a first baseman and being traded with two years control remaining, Matt Olson can also be utilized as a decent trade comp. The Atlanta Braves sent Oakland catcher prospect Shea Langeliers, RHPs Ryan Cusick and Joey Estes, and CF Cristian Pache.
Catcher Sean Murphy, with the same three seasons of command left, fetched the A’s LHP Kyle Muller, RHP Freddy Tarnok, C Manny Pina, and OF Esteury Ruiz from the Braves and Brewers.
Somewhere in the range of these three trades is the cost for Reynolds. Probably somewhere just north of the raw price for Varsho (despite the extra year of control), and likely very similar to the value of the packages for Olson and Murphy.
If the Pirates demand a true headlining starting pitcher or SP prospect in the deal, the Mariners might be out of luck. Despite my personal affinity for the long-term future of former No. 6 pick Emerson Hancock, and the high floor and mid-rotation ceiling of Bryce Miller, other clubs reportedly interested in Reynolds not only have better young pitching to offer Pittsburgh, but may have a better non-pitcher headliner, too, since Seattle has no business including Logan Gilbert or George Kirby in such trade talks, no matter how often delusional Pirates’ bloggers suggest ‘Kirby-plus for Reynolds is a fair deal.’
Among the most mentioned clubs in these trade sweepstakes, if you will, are the Texas Rangers, New York Yankees, Miami Marlins, Toronto Blue Jays, Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, Colorado Rockies, and the Mariners.
If, for the sake of the conversation, start by determining which teams may very well have the depth to include the pitcher headliner in a package, here’s who does:
The Miami Marlins can start with two years of Pablo Lopez or four years of Trevor Rogers, but also have an abundance of true SP prospects to consider, including RHPs Eury Perez, Max Meyer, and LHP Jake Eder, all of which upstage the perceived value of Hancock, and maybe even Miller.
The Braves, Red Sox, Rockies, Yankees, and Rangers are in a similar boat as Seattle — lacking the ideal starting pitcher prospect to lead an offer. Texas, however, might be able to sell the Pirates on Jack Leiter, the former No. 2 overall pick who has had significant control problems as a pro, but still possesses plus raw stuff and is just 22 years old. The Rangers also could add RHP Owen White and 2B Justin Foscue, among others, truly dealing from a position of strength all the way through their 26-man roster.
Toronto could try to lead with lefty Ricky Teidemann, who is a year and a half from the majors, give or take, and projects as a No. 3 starter with a chance to be a bit better. The Jays also have other prospects the Pirates could covet, including 3B Orelvis Martinez and RHP Yosver Zulueta.
The Yankees, considering their roster needs and behaviour the last two winters, appear set on Anthony Volpe in their lineup in 2023. He’s their top prospect and could be their shortstop for the foreseeable future. The Yankees could try to headline with Jasson Dominguez, an outfielder with a long track record of raw ability and hype, but at 19 last season the kid raked and still carries above-average or better tools across the board, including power and speed.
Dominguez is a better prospect than any of the Mariners’ top prospects, despite being a few years from the majors.
Boston’s system is fine, and if they were willing to ship out Marcelo Mayer in the trade they might be the frontrunners. He’s among the top 5-15 prospects in baseball and is projected a plus shortstop glove with .280/.350/.450 slashes (or better) written all over his left-handed swing. For the Sox, the question is whether or not they have enough other than Mayer to best what other clubs likely to have to spare — and my best guess is they do not.
The Braves don’t have that pitching prospect, but could included LHP Jared Schuster — mid-rotation upside and ready as early as 2023 — along with some longer-term arms in their system and see if the Pirates bite on a rebuild of their system rather than adding multiple players that can help sooner than later.
The Rockies could try and push 2022 first-round pick Gabriel Hughes, a right-hander out of Gonzaga, in combination with OF Zac Veen, and perhaps SS Ezequiel Tovar, but this is a package a contender trades for one of the final pieces to the puzzle, and unless the Rockies’ puzzle is as incomplete as the fit with Kris Bryant, it’s difficult to see the club making such an offer.
The Los Angeles Dodgers don’t get mentioned as much, but they should be a player here, too, and they have RHP Bobby Miller and C Diego Cartaya to dangle. Cartaya is a top-15 prospect in the league and Miller is among the better five or six righties in the minors and is knocking on the door of the big leagues.
If the Cleveland Guardians wish to get involved, they have some depth from which to trade, but I’m not convinced they’d move their best SP prospect with Shane Bieber’s time running out, barring an extension.
Ranking the top SP prospects from interested teams
1. Eury Perez, RHP — Miami
2. Max Meyer, RHP — Miami
3. Bobby Miller, RHP — LAD
4. Rocky Tiedemann, LHP — Toronto
5. Jack Leiter, RHP — Texas
6. Bryce Miller, RHP — Seattle
7. Owen White, RHP — Texas
8. Ryan Pepiot, RHP — LAD
9. Brock Porter, RHP — Texas
10. Gavin Stone, RHP — LAD
11. Emerson Hancock, RHP — Seattle
12. Will Warren, RHP — NYY
13. Brandon Barriera, RHP — CHC
Overall Top 15 prospects from the reportedly-interested clubs
1. Diego Cartaya, C — LAD
2. Anthony Volpe, SS — NYY
3. Marcelo Mayer, SS — BOS
4. Eury Perez, RHP — Miami
5. Bobby Miller, RHP — LAD
5. Zac Veen, OF — Colorado
7. Ezequiel Tovar, SS — Colorado
8. Ricky Tiedemann, LHP — Toronto
9. Josh Jung, 3B — Texas
10. Jasson Dominguez, OF — NYY
11. Max Meyer, RHP — Miami
12. Jacob Berry, OF — Miami
13. Harry Ford, C — Seattle
14. Evan Carter, OF — Texas
15. Oswald Peraza, SS — NYY
Despite rankings being subjective, and even if you assume some conflicting eval, they still demonstrate the organic hole the Mariners find themselves in simply in terms of what they have available to trade and its potential value.
The way Seattle can make waves here include:
Be more willing to move top talents than other clubs, perhaps in a bit of a bulk move
Include big-league players (Jarred Kelenic, Tom Murphy, Evan White and cash, Taylor Trammell, or a young controllable reliever such as Matthew Festa)… anything to move the needle at all.
Find a third team, one with a better SP headliner.
One thing to keep in mind: The Pirates have not come out, at least publicly, and said they will trade Reynolds, or that they require a top starting pitching prospect or young big leaguer. It just makes so much sense it’d be ridiculous for them to prefer otherwise, all else being equal. It’s why I’ve been saying such for over a year. I believe this is also making its rounds with the newsbreakers. IIRC, Jon Morosi discussed the SP thing and the Pirates in a recent appearance on a show.
There are a number of questions I feel need answering from the Mariners’ perspective, so let’s do that now. Justin, Jerry, take it away. Okay, since they aren’t available, I’ll respond from my own POV.
Do the Mariners have enough to trade for Reynolds?Yes. Matching up with Pittsburgh won’t be easy, though, which is why we’re discussing other clubs in this manner. But using the comp trades noted above, Seattle can meet the value of Reynolds. The questions are, will it be the best deal the Pirates can get, and …
Should the Mariners include their top three prospects in a trade for Reynolds?For me, today, this would be C Harry Ford, RHP Bryce Miller, and SS Axel Sanchez. In a vacuum, yes. Seattle, however, may be hellbent on seeing it through with Miller, at least for this coming season, because of the big-league roster’s weaknesses on the mound (rotation depth, strikeout relievers). And it probably takes at least one, maybe even two, additional players.
Does the club having three picks in the Top 30 come into play at all here?Yes. The Mariners can trade the CBB pick (30), and in a strong class it could have value that replaces or enhances a trade package to the Pirates’ liking.
The presence of those picks has utility, too, but it’s a lot more difficult to place reliable value on them this far out from Draft Day. Which means the merit of No. 30 overall to the Pirates is less clear, and the value of the picks to the Mariners isn’t clear enough to simply believe their possession of them lends them confidence in trading certain prospects they’d otherwise prefer not to move.
If I were placing odds using only the most reported clubs on Reynolds, and based on available trade bait, team roster needs, and motivation, I’d go like this:
Any Trade Before Regular Season 8-1
Texas 20-1
Toronto 25-1
NYY 25-1
Atlanta 25-1
Miami 15-1
Boston 60-1
Colordo 100-1
Mariners 25-1
At the end of the day — or the offseason, to be more accurate — Reynolds is worth the Mariners’ top three prospects, mayne their Top 4 and then some. If the club can ease the prospect charge enough to hang onto Miller and avoid making this a top-six-for-one, it’s probably a trade Seattle should make.
If the Pirates are willing to include right-handed reliever David Bednar, it changes the conversation a bit. How about we chat about that next week, eh?
I don't hate any of the options like this at all.. Send it Jerry! Looks like the Pirates are devaluing Reynolds with the contract offers, very Pirates!