There is one kinda-fun thing about the Seattle Mariners having not made a major deal costing prospects at the trade deadline earlier this month: The boost to the farm system.
While winning at the big-league level is more important, the fact the Mariners held onto their top talents to allow them continued growth will pay dividends down the line, either in the form of homegrown players on the 26-man, or as more valuable trade pieces as their proximity to the bigs improves and they start to erase risk from their profiles.
But here we are post-draft-and-deadline, system fully intact.
The following Top 50 was compiled after eight straight days of the following:
Live, subjective scouting
Video study
Layered statistical analysis, including batted ball data
Conversations with scouting, player development, and front office staff across nine different organizations
* Qualified players (must not have exceeded 130 ABs or 50 innings pitched in MLB_ currently on the active 26-man roster or big-league IL are not eligible until the offseason.
Cole Young, SS | 20 — Everett (A+)
Young lacks the upside of a few of his org mates ranked below him, but he’s the closest to a sure-thing prospect in the system and a middle infielder with a plus hit tool and a chance at average game power is a pretty valuable asset.
He just turned 20 but handles himself like a veteran; nothing fazes him, including facing big-time velocity. The swing as pure and consistent, delivering line drives from line to line and a lot of contact. Young will drive the ball the other way, but his home-run pop is to his pull side.Defensively, there’s an efficient, consistent shortstop here, with average to above-average range, a plus arm, easy actions, and terrific hands and feet.
He’s performed well in his time in Everett and is on track to see Double-A Arkansas as early as next summer, perhaps before he turns 21.Deadline Analysis, Scouting Reports, Roster Chat & More on Baseball Things
Harry Ford, C | 20 — Everett (A+)
Ford remains a potential average-plus catcher with above-average skills across the board, including advanced plate skills and 60-grade power. The pop shows only occasionally in games, but the 20-year-old generates well above-average bat speed and uses his lower half well.He’s incredibly balanced in the batter’s box and the swing is short to the ball with a rather short load abbreviated leg kick, keeping him on time and able to cover the plate.
My one remaining question about the bat: Is he a little too passive?
Defensively, Ford possesses all the tools necessary to be a well-rounded backstop, but he’s still shoring up his footwork and throwing techniques, and has battled some issues getting jumps on ball in the dirt and well wide of the zone, hence the higher-than-ideal passed ball numbers.
There are scouts predicting a 2024 position change for Ford, who has the athleticism to play elsewhere on the field, but I can’t think of a reason to make the change so early in his career. Ford has caught under 1100 innings as a pro, about the equiavelent of one full season in the bigs.
There’s still plenty of time for the catching to progress, which makes Ford a high-end prospect with a chance to make an impact in all facets.Colt Emerson, SS | 18 — Mariners (R)
Despite the fact he has merely a handful of professional plate appearances, the club’s first-round pick already is battling Young for best swing, and Emerson packs projectable power thanks to natural loft and easy bat speed.
He’s a good athlete, but isn’t likely to stay at shortstop, but second base is more than reasonable, and it’s not out of the question his bat ends up playing just fine at third.
Emerson’s calling card is consistent hard contact, and I’m betting aggressively on 25-plus homers. If he stays at second, he’s a star. At third, he’s still a well-above-average player with a chance to play elite defense.Don’t be surprised if Emerson is the top prospect in the org as early as this time next year.
Michael Arroyo, 2B | 19 — Modesto (A)
Paramount to Arroyo’s value is his future on the field. Entering pro ball, there were those who believed he might have to move to third base or left field, putting a lot of pressure on his weakest tool — power. But he moves his feet well, has good hands, and the arm plays, so I see second base as more than realistic.
Arroyo’s coverage of the strike zone and pitch recognition are advanced for his age and experience. His barrel awareness is tremendous, and his swing is short and quick, allowing him to stay back and still hit velocity.
He has shown some in-box anxiety in recent weeks, but it’s tough to hold it against him too much, he’s 18 and in full-season Class-A ball already.
He will spray line drives from the right-center gap to the left-field line, and projects to hit for high average. Arroy is adept at working counts and fouling off tough pitches, and will take more than his fair share of walks, suggesting a good shot at above-average OBPs down the line.Gabriel Gonzalez, LF | 19 — Everett (A+)
Perhaps the best overall hiting prospec in the system, Gonzalez leads with high-end bat-to-ball and above-average bat speed. He knows the strike zone and can hit the ball for extra-base power from right-center to the left-field line, and has gotten to his home run power sooner than most teenagers.
Despite being under 6-feet tall, Gonzalez creates leverage and loft to all fields, and projects for above-average contact rates and good batting averages.
I only question the power upside relative to his secondary values; he’s probably an average to above-average a left fielder who won’t make a big impact on the bases. He’s still a future major leaguer, but if he lands in the 15-18 homer range he’s probably more of an average regular. If he maintains his average and gets beyond 20 homers, we can talk about the chance at an All-Star appearance or two.I do have doubts Gonzalez will ever produce high OBPs, but the contact/average should keep him above the league median.
Felnin Celesten, SS | 17 — Mariners (DSL)
Celesten’s hamstring injury has kept him from starting his pro career this summer in the Dominican Summer League, but the switch-hitting shortstop won’t turn 18 untl next month and carries above-average to plus tools across the board.
Celesten isn’t necessarily a fast-track kid the way Julio Rodriguez was, and perhaps not the quick mover Gabriel Gonzalez and Michael Arroyo have shown as international signings. Perhaps his most raw tool is the most important one — hit.
There’s above-average power to go get here from both sides of the plate, and perhaps more as a lefty, and there seems to be little doubt he’ll end up at shortstop, thanks to soft hands, easy footwork and instincts, and a plus arm that play anywhere.
He’s a long-term prospect, but one with considerable upside.Jonny Farmelo, CF | 18 — NA
Farmelo, the club’s second of three first-round picks last month, is a five-tool centerfielder with plus power and speed and a shot at 20-plus homers and above-average defense.
The swing is a bit unorthodox and the power is mostly undeveloped, but Farmelo is a tooled up athlete who has shown he can find the barrel at a high rate.Tai Peete, SS | 17 — Mariners (R)
Peete may already be the best athlete in the system and offers a chance at three plus tools - throw, run, and power.
Unlike Farmelo, the power is easy to project to 20-plus homers thanks to big-time bat speed and electric hands through the zone with natural loft. He can really run, too, and at present has the lateral agility to develop at shortstop.
Peete may outgrow the position, however, so there’s a lot of talk about third base oreven center field. The arm will play anywhere.
The task for the Mariners development staff is helping Peete identify paths to consistent contact levels without sacrificing his chance to impact the game with extra-base hits.Ryan Bliss, 2B | 23 — Tacoma (AAA)
Bliss, acquired in the trade with Arizona for Paul Sewald, is a 5-foot-6, 175-pound second baseman with a chance to see the majors in September and be part of the club’s plans for 2024.
Despite his size, Bliss packs some punch in his right-handed swing, including the ability to drive the ball to the opposite field, reaching the gaps for doubles, and using his above-average speed to stretch doubles into three-baggers.
To his pull side the raw power is about average, suggesting double-digit homers (he has 13 in 376 ABs between AA and AAA this season) is a realistic end-result, but Bliss’ game is getting on base and efforts toward a Luis Arraez-style approach seem most reasonable.
He’s shown above-average range at second base with enough arm to make all the plays necessary, and profiles as a high-efficiency glove with flashes of the spectacular play. He doesn’t make many mistakes in the field: just five errors in 73 starts up the middle.
Long-term Bliss’ lack of power likely makes him a utility player, but there’s a chance he continues his upward trend of more contact and higher averages and OBPs and earns the right to start for a few years.Tyler Locklear, 1B | 22 — Everett (A+)
Locklear is a hunter of fastballs, but arrived in pro ball with the ability to stay back and light up offspeed stuff, too, and his power extends well into the opposite field where he’s hit a good number of his homers the past two years.
As a first-base only glove, despite some fringe-average third-base grades, he’ll have hit a ton to rise through the minors and earn time with the big club, but it’s at least 60-grade power and an average hit tool.Lazaro Montes, 1B | 18 — Modesto (A)
Montes is a long-term project, but has the best raw power in the system and among the best in the minors; currently I have a 70-grade on it, but can be convinced it belongs closer to 80.
Montes is a big-bodied teenager who projects as a bat-only prospect limited to first base or DH. But with big bat speed and impressive bat-to-ball skills, the upside here is pretty high, and time is on his side — he won’t turn 19 until October and he’s alreadymashed his way to full-season ball.
The swing is a bit long and can get loopy, putting a lot of pressure on his ability to identify spin and react to velocity, particularly with two strikes, but his strikeout numbers are not alarming at 25%, and they come with walks and power.Walter Ford, RHP | 18 — Mariners (R)
Ford is another longer-term prospect just getting started. He’s physical with projectable velocity, and he’s already sitting easy low-90s and scraping 94-95; he’s touched 98 in side sessions.
If he’s to start, there’s a lot of delivery/command work, as well as pitch development ahead. It’s a four-seam/slider combo from a high arm slot with medium-plus effort, but there’s life to the heater, and deception in the mechanics.Jonatan Clase, CF | 21 — Arkansas (AA)
Clase should remain in center despite merely adequate jumps and routes, thanks to 70-grade speed. But the switch-hitter’s ability to make consistent contact is front and center, despite the power he’s shown in Double-A.
He’s just 21, though, so there’s time, and he’s managing two swings suggesting his ascent will now slow down until he proves he needs a new challenge.Teddy McGraw, RHP | 21 — NA
Health is a part of McGraws profile, but there’s an at least an outside shot he can start some, but his raw stuff suggests a relatively strong floor of a high-leverage relief arm that slithers through the minors in two beats of Jerry Dipoto’s heart.
He’s up to 96 mph in a starting role, setting up a potential wipeout slider. There’s a promising changeup in the cupboard if he stays in the rotation long-term.Prelander Berroa, RHP | 23 — Arkansas (AA)
Berrao has filthy stuff — up to 99 mph with a four-seam fastaball with carry and ride, and a devastating hard slider he can throw for strikes or bury it for swings and misses.
He’s still working on throwing strikes consistently, however, which is the one thing holding him back from being the cherry on top in the Mariners’ big-league pen in 2023.Aidan Smith, OF | 19 — Mariners (R)
Of all the 2023 draftees, Smith may be the most underrated, and I may be too light on him here at No. 16.
It’s a steady, powerful right-handed swing with a terrific foundation, consistent timing, and a chance for above-average to plus power. At 6-foot-3 and nearing 200 pounds, Smith’s speed may surprise some, but he’s likely ticketed for an outfield corner, albeit of the athletic, plus variety.Jeter Martinez, RHP | 17 — Mariners (DSL)
Martinez is into the mid-90s with a two-seamer from a higher-than-average slot, and shows projectable command. His slider has some tilt and good shape, but needs to be tightened and probably works better closer to the mid-80s. There’s also feel for a future big-league changeup.
Martinez, 17, is built like a big-league starter at 6-foot-4 and about 190 pounds, and simply needs time to develop. He should see the states next summer.Michael Morales, RHP | 20 — Modesto (A)
Morales doesn’t posses big-time raw stuff, but has taken a big step forward in 2023 with firmer four-seam velocity and what looks like the best pure curveball in the system.
There’s little physical projection for the 6-foot-2, 205-pound Morales, but he throws strikes and may have four pitches when all is said and done.
The ceiling isn’t high here, but everything that’s been said about Taylor Dollard is also true for Morales, the club’s 2021 third-round pick. He’ll be 21 later this month and should go step-by-step, year-by-year through the system projecting as a back-end rotation option.Ashton Izzi, RHP | 19 — Mariners (R)
’A.J.” Izzi is a classic fastball-slider-changeup right-hander with projection to build off projectable velocity and what promises to be an above-average slider.
Eventually he’ll need to improve his options versus left-handed batters or he risks ending up in the bullpen, but he’s a long-term arm that could end up sitting in the mid-90s.Brody Hopkins, RHP | 21 —NA
Hopkins is a tremendous athlete who can run, and he takes advantage of it on the mound with a smooth, deceptive delivery led by a fluid lower half.
He pitches easy at 91-94 mph, and reaches the mid-90s with a heavy sinker from a three-quarter slot. The pitch has plus sink and arm side run. In a relief role, we could be looking at Justin Topa on Jolt Cola, including a chance at upper-90s heat and a devastating slider allowing Hoping to work both sides of the plate as well as vertically through the zone.Dylan Wilson, RHP | 17 — Mariners (DSL)
Zach DeLoach, LF | 24 — Tacoma (AAA)
Carlos Jimenez, OF | 20 — Mariners (R)
Axel Sanchez, SS | 20 — Everett (A+)
Darren Bowen, RHP | 22 — Modesto (A)
Juan Then, RHP | 23 — Tacoma (AAA)
Alberto Rodriguez, RF | 22 — Arkansas (AA)
Milkar Perez, 3B | 21 — Modesto (A)
Eduard Bazardo, RHP | 27 — Tacoma (AAA)
Hogan Windish, 1B/3B | 24 — Everett (A+)
Luis Suisbel, 3B | 20— Modesto (A)
Robert Perez Jr., RF | 23 — Arkansas (AA)
Tyler Gough, RHP | 19 — Modesto (A)
Ben Williamson, 3B | 22 — Modesto (A)
Jean Munoz, RHP | 20 — Mariners (R)
Dervy Ventura, SS | 19 — Mariners (DSL)
Sebastian De Andrade, C | 17 — Mariners (DSL)
Ty Adcock, RHP | 26 — Arkansas (AA)
Kendal Meza, RHP | 17 — Mariners (DSL)
Travis Kuhn, RHR | 25 — Arkansas (AA)
Jose Zerpa, RHP | 18 — Mariners (DSL)
Ty Cummings, RHP| 21 — NA
Carson Jones, RF | 22 — Mariners (R)
Jorge Benitez, LHP | 24 — Arkansas (AA)
Taylor Dollard, RHP | 24 — Tacoma (AAA)
Starlin Aguilar, 3B | 19 — Mariners (R)
Kristian Cardozo, RHP | 20 — Mariners (R)
Brandyn Garcia, RHP | 23 — NA
Kelvin Alcantara, OF | 17 — Mariners (DSL)
Martin Gonzalez, SS | 18 — Mariners (DSL)