What other clubs think of the 2023 Seattle Mariners
As spring training nears Cactus League play in Peoria, I've had polling conversations with personnel folks with five others organizations. Let's see what they think of the '23 Mariners.
It’s no secret the offseason didn’t go as fans hoped. The Seattle Mariners made two significant additions in Teoscar Hernandez and Kolten Wong, but there was no impact net-gain in comparison to the club’s Opening Day roster a year ago.
President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto and GM Justin Hollander disagree, however, with those that don’t believe the club is significantly better than last April, and frankly, that’s where I stand on the 2023 Mariners.
For me, these are the reasons to believe the team is markedly better than a year ago:
A full season of Luis Castillo. The right-hander, who was a 3.8 fWAR arm in 2021 and a 3.7 fWAR performer last season between Cincinnati and Seattle, made 11 starts for the Mariners after the trade. He could make three times that in 2023, provided he remains healthy, replacing what the club received from Chris Flexen a year ago in the rotation (22 GS, 0.5 fWAR). This is an impact improvement the club had for just a third of the schedule in 2022.
More from George Kirby. While it’s tough to bet on better performance from Kirby in 2023 than his rookie season (3.0 fWAR, 3.31 xERA, 2.99 FIP, 3.33 xFIP in 130 innings), but the club figures to get 30-50 innings more out of the right-hander, adding to his chances to repeat, or even exceed, his value in Year 2. His full-season, training-wheels-off presence also likely impacts the bullpen in a positive manner the same way Castillo-over-Flexen does.
Teoscar Hernandez. There are a lot of similarities in the performances of Hernandez and Mitch Haniger, but a vast difference in value. When pitting last year’s team versus 2023, this is a huge win for ‘23 since we KNOW Haniger missed over 100 games, and the club’s new right fielder is a much more steady force in availability. This could be a 1-1.5 win advantage for the 2023 Mariners, who received 2.0 fWAR from RF altogether a year ago, just 0.8 from Haniger, and the club’s projected combo for this season (Hernandez, A.J. Pollock), with a great chance at more based on offense alone (101 wRC+ in RF in 2022).
Kolten Wong. He’s not Adam Frazier. As optimistic as I was about Frazier in 2022, Wong is a much more accomplished player. There’s not a ton of upside, but it’s a higher floor with Wong, and a better chance at consistent production based on recent performance.
Trends. The Mariners have more players trending up, and by that I mean players that performed well or in some larger samples a year ago than they had entering 2022. It’s far from a perfect roster, but there are very few risks of serious declines in value, and none of the cliff-dive variety.
The club remains equipped to cover pitching needs from within. There are a several relief prospects serving as candidates to break camp if needed, let a lone during the season, and Bryce Miller could make an impact in the rotation and//or the bullpen as early as Opening Day. Taylor Dollard can fill innings if injuries ravage the starting five.
On a smaller scale but a potentially-impactful one nonetheless, a healthy Tom Murphy, who is a perfect complement to Cal Raleigh, is an enormous upgrade to the 62 wRC+ the club’s non-Cal catchers posted a year ago. Murphy, a right-handed bat, hits lefties pretty well, and Raleigh’s strong side is versus right-handed arms (though it should be noted facing LHP is not a huge issue for Raleigh, it just so happens he’s better as a lefty where he has more pop and more reps).
Those are the main reasons for me. But I’ve been asking around the league to get roster opinions and win totals and here’s what I received from baseball ops and front office people from 5 different orgs:
"I think they are clearly better than last year, but it’s going to be a tougher division. My personal model has them at 90.8 wins, but that doesn’t count any significant contributions from the farm, so if they get Miller into the rotation, for example, he could provide an extra win, possibly a little more, over the whole season, depending on how many starts he gets, obviously. ””They’re putting a lot of their season on that Kelenic kid … too much. They are better, but I think it’s marginal. I have them at 89 wins, but with some volatility in a couple spots that could come back to get them.”
”This is a club I like, a lot really, but didn’t like at all what they did over the winter. By not taking care of (RF and 2B) with multi-year options, they’re risking more trade assets in the future. But in 2023 I think it’s an 86-87-win team with a high floor, but also good upside into the 92-win range.”
”It’s a no for me. No on the playoffs, no on a 90-win season. Oh, the Mariners? Not the Angels? Haha, Ok. Thought you’d like that. Then sure, they got better, a little bit, and will pitch and compete. From a roster construction standpoint there is a lot of good and some bad, in my opinion. They’re short a couple of hitters and those hitters were out there to get, and they clearly didn’t and are hoping some things bounce their way. I’ve seen worse teams win 95, though, I’ll say that. This group has some heat.”
”I think the biggest questions here are how much more can the four young guys (Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert) give them versus last year, and can (Robbie) Ray get back a little bit. Pitching is their foundation, so if that group takes a few steps forward again, Houston has to start thinking about where they might want to put a Wild Card banner.”
”Offseason oddities aside — because they should have done more in free agency, no question — this is a roster ready to explode. That wasn’t what happened last year. That was just the arrival. I really think this is the take-off year in Seattle, and I also think there’s one more big trade in them in July. They’ll cruise to 85 wins, but the grind they offer gets them to 90 and beyond. I would not be surprised at all if that division has two 95-win clubs in it this year.”
”What’s funny is after the season my system pushed out 82 wins for them. The next iteration was 83.8, then 86.4 after the trade with Toronto, 87.8 after they added Wong. Those marker dates coincided with other things happening in their division, including the Rangers doing some damage, the Angels shoring up their roster, and the Astros losing (Justin) Verlander and adding (Jose (Abreu). But Seattle kept climbing little by little. When I add in contingency values for everyone, the Mariners gain a full two wins on everyone in that division. Right now (February 20), I have them at 90.3 wins, and I think subjectibe analysis and scouting can easily get you to 93-94.”
”I see what they are doing and I don’t believe the lack of impact free agency spending is about the ownership as much as fans likely believe. I really think Jerry prefers to trade assets from the system and sign players that do not inherently arrive with long-term risk of most free agents. Now, part of the reason for that is payroll foresight, but even some of the biggest markets go to great lengths to avoid paying premium dollars to good players outside their prime projections. We have them around 88 wins with the math, but if you hold me to it they’re winning that division and making big-time noise. The time is now in Seattle, and it won’t be the last time we say that. They’re ready for several runs.”
”Our standard systems don’t like them much — 84-85 wins — but it’s the same common system that spits out 78-80 wins for Cleveland every year. We haven’t figured out a way to quantify and measure the value of depth beyond the player-for-player transaction, or the year-to-year movement of young talent. ZiPS does a decent job of it from a team standpoint, but player-to-player, we’re all still trying to figure that out, and it looks like Seattle has a handful of those players highlighting their 40-man.”
”I’m not that high on them, but that’s not because they aren’t good, I just think other teams that weren’t actually worse in terms of talent got better this winter, and it’s a new year with new hope for some players and teams that underperformed last season. Our stuff has them in the upper-80s mostly, but I think they lack high-impact stability right now. I think they’re vulnerable to take a step back in 2023.”
I added one caveat to each subject above to see how it would change their outlook, model/system, or subjectively.
What if they suffer no significant injury losses?
”95 wins.””Yeah, that would go a long way. Division hamps?”
”93.3 totals if we take away projected games lost to injury.”
“That’s an equalizer. I’d say 95 wins is a good number in this case.”
What if Julio Rodriguez is the AL MVP?
”So a real big step for him. Yeah, that might mean a division championship and a World Series. Makes it easier to build the lineup every single day.””92.8 wins, but Astros still win the West.”
”I’m already assuming this is the kind of year he has.”
What if they trade for Bryan Reynolds or Ian Happ at the deadline?
"While this helps, it’s mostly a postseason move if it comes with two months left, right?”
”Fills a major hole in that lineup. I’d feel really good about that team in October. But they have to get there and right now I don’t think they are a top 5 team over there (American League), so it’s borderline.”
What if Bryce Miller is a 2.5-win starter this season, and Jarred Kelenic puts up an average LF season?
”Well, now you’re talking. I still question the bullpen, but it might not matter. That’s the best rotation in the AL even though they don;t have the perennial Cy Young contender, which is how the Astros ae built now, too.””97 wins, beat the Astros for the West, top 5 team in baseball.”
What if A.J. Preller makes a trade with Jerry Dipoto this season?
”Why would Preller ever do that again? Stay away, AJ.”
This is a wonderful article. My favorite types to read. Thanks Jason!
great to see these perspectives. I know the Mariners want to use the DH to rotate and rest multiple key players, but should they have outbid the Astros for Jose Abreu or the Giants for Michael Conforto to have added another quality bat to the lineup?