Cactus League Thoughts: Week 3

Prospects, spring buzz, and more.

PEORIA, Ariz. — It’s been one week since we talked Cactus League, so let’s do this again right now.

• I mentioned this on Baseball Things, but I’ll say it again here: If you’re excited about prospects as a reault of seeing them do a little something in big-league camp, andyou’r expressing your excitement on social media, don’t let people tell you to cool your jets. It’s ok to be excited. It’s the whole point of watching the kids. Baseball is supposed to be fun. There is no such thing as The Prospect Police. I checked, it’s a fake organization made up of no one that knows a thing about anything. Holler.

• Having said that, we do have to remind ourselves sometimes it’s a super small sample that does not suggest that player is big-league ready, or will be anytime soon. Nothing like some cold water on a hit take, right? Most of the young hitters in camp — Harry Ford, Cole Young, et al — Have yet to see legitimately good pitching on a consistent basis, even relative to the minors. Let’s see them handle that for an extended period of time before rushing them to T-Mobile. But hell yes, get pumped, these kids are talented and fun athletes.

• For the second time in as many weeks it’s been suggested to me Emerson Hancock may have a timing issue in his delivery that could impact velocity and command. He appeared to be working on this in bullpen work Monday — where his hands go and where his lower half is when he breaks, things of that nature. I just caught the tale end of it. For me, without a real-world breaking ball, Hancock is not a long-term starting pitcher in th major leagues and may have issues staying on any 26-man roster.

• Told a friend today Jonny Farmelo is going to end up being what many of us thought Jarred Kelenic would be when the club first acquired him before the 2019 season.

• Watched some bullpens, BP, and infield on the back fields the last couple of days, and while I’ll share a lot of that on the next few episodes of Baseball Things, one note I made Sunday was there appeared to be more capable hitters for the upper minors (that weren’t non-prospects) than in recent years. Names like Ryan Bliss, Tyler Locklear, Spencer Packard, Cade Marlowe, Taylor Trammell, Jonatana Clase, Samad Taylor, and Young, among others, have been hitting together (Field 2 mostly), and most of those are going to end up in Arkansas or Tacoma, if they don’t make the big club.

• Speaking of the big club and Taylor, the most likely scenario where he makes the 26-man out of camp starts to disappear the more Luis Urias plays the field and shows his arm is ready to go for the opener. Considering Brian Anderson, one alternative at third base in a scenario where Urias isn’t ready, is not on the 40-man, the club may very well have gone to Dylan Moore in Urias’ place, opening a spot for Taylor on the bench. Either way, Taylor, Bliss, and Marlowe, plus catcher Blake Hunt, represent a pretty solid foursome in Tacoma to fill in when injuries occur. Of course, as the season moves along some of the club;s top prospects will join that list, including Locklear, and perhaps Ford and Young, too.

• Tacoma, in general, may have a pretty good team — if you’re into winning.

• The opinions scouts make around this time of year can be taken with a grain of salt, but some of the more veteran scouts see teams in Florida and Arizona, and the early returns there on Seattle range from “they have a chance to be a truly complete club for the first time under Jerry Dipoto” to “if” this and “if that.” I even got a “they’re not going to be very good” from one of the better scouts I know.

• Went to Rangers and Royals minor league camps early Sunday and three things stood out: For Texas, they have a lot of athletes with ceilings and risk in addition to the Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford types at the top. But also, their best impact pitching is at least two years away, and no one seems to like the chance Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter stay in the rotation. Texas likely will be trading for arms for the foreseeable future, but they’re going to hit. The Royals, on the other hand — and note this is just a few hours around the fields — appear to be lacking upside outside their top pick from a year ago, catcher Blake Mitchell. A lot of their arms, even the best ones, show good but not great stuff, and have yet to show the kind of command that can help pitches perform better despite a lack of ideal deception and movement.

• The words from elsewhere on the Mariners farm is mixed, but mostly because the best of the bunch haven’t proven themselves above High-A yet, and the Double-A stop is such a key one.

• Felnin Celesten looks like a major leaguer.

• Lazaro Montes looks like a defensive end.

• Michael Morales looks stronger and quicker (arm).

• Logan Evans, who pitched just 16 innings last summer after the club tabbed him in Round 12 out of Pittsburgh, is throwing seeds in side sessions. I got a few 97s, others in recent days have seen 99s. But what I didn’t see was big-time secondary stuff. It’s just a side session, I’m just saying I didn’t see what the team says is there.
  
  The real info on an arm like Evans will come as he’s facing High-A hitters. Let’s see where the stuff and velocity is after 60-80 pitches. But Evans, whom I had to be talked into moving up in my Top 50 because I hadn’t seen anything about which to write home, has always thrown enough strikes (53 walks in 139 innings in college). The secondary stuff was average, however, and he rarely commanded his low-90s fastball well enough to keep the ball in the yard (23 HR).
  
  But he has fastball shape, prototypical size, and Seattle appears to be working its magic. We’ll see.

• Ben Williamson is a little better athlete than I anticipated seeing — it’s the Matt Chapman profile — but there’s work to do with the swing if he’s to profile anywhere near major-leahue quality production. I wonder if other positions are in play, and when. He can really move his feet, even though he’s probably justa bit above-average in terms of running speed.

• “Are you worried at all about J.P. Crawford, he’s batting like .190?”
  Stop.

• There may be some ‘names’ released this month from a prospect perspecive, perhaps even one or more of six and-seven figure international signings. The club’s drafts the past three years have been deep in high school talent, their international clases have not skipped a beat, and there is only so much room in an orgaization.

• Still in wait-and-see mode on Bryan Woo’s immediate ability to get through a lineup two or more times with consistency.

• The Mariners’ rotation boasts a ton of fastball value, and that is not a mistake. They know the risks associated with throwing a lot of spinners and splitters. Everyone else does, too, but the Mariners are one of the clubs that got out in front with purpose as they anticipated a rebuild following the 2018 season.

• If we made an all-star team out of the American League West, how many Mariners hitters would be on it? I say two: Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh. But first base is more up for grabs than some may think. Nathaniel Lowe (114 wRC+ in 2023) may be the consensus for now, but Nolan Schanuel, Ty France, and even Jose Abreu have a shot to take over this season, and Oakland’s Ryan Noda led the division with a 123 wRC+ last season.
  
  From a starting pitching standpoint, the Mariners get three in there, certainly (Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert), but do the Angels, A’s, or Rangers get any? Framber Valdez is certainly on that squad, as is a healthy Justin Verlander.

• Some prospects I’m focused on gathering as much intel as possible the next three days: Morales, Brody Hopkins, Michael Arroyo.