France, Rojas, Haniger lead Mariners vs velocity

Some fun with data to start the road trip.

We talk a lot about a batter’s performance versus a certain pitch type or in certain counts. When it’s early in the morning and I’m not tired yet, I seek out something to learn.

This morning, I wondered which Seattle Mariners batters hits velocity best. So, here is what I found.

NOTE: The average fastball in the big leagues in 2024 is 94.1 mph. For this litte exercise, I used 95 mph as the minimum to velo to depict ‘velocity.’

Batting Average vs. Fastballs 95 mph or Higher
— League Average: .234

1. Ty France, .320
2. Josh Rojas, .296
3. Dominic Canzone, .286
3. Julio Rodriguez, .286
5. Mitch Haniger, .265
6. Dylan Moore, .182
7. J.P. Crawford, .179
7. Cal Raleigh, .179
9. Luke Raley, .176
11. Mitch Garver, .120

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Slugging vs. Fastballs 95 mph or Higher
— League Average: .363

1. France, .520
2. Haniger, .500
3. Rodriguez, .449
4. Rojas, .444
5. Crawford, .410
6. Raleigh, .359
7. Canzone, .357
8. Moore, .273
9. Garver, .200
10. Raley, .176

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But the above lists only show what happens when the ball is put in play by the hitter, so, let’s remedy the missing information.

Swing and Miss Rate on Fastballs 95 mph or Higher
— League average: 22.7%

1. France, 16.7%
2. Garver, 18.9%
3. Rojas, 19.0%
4. Crawford, 22.5%
5. Raleigh, 23.2%
6. Rodriguez, 26.6%
7. Raley, 34.1%
8. Haniger, 34.3%
9. Moore, 34.4%
10. Canzone, 40.0%

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The above data may beg the question: How is France, who is having a solid year, not absolutely raking, then?

Well, it’s kind of strange. France is hitting .254 with a .408 slug versus all fastballs, regardless of velocity. He’s been better versus 95 mph and up then up to 94 mph.

He’s batting .274 with a .419 slug against all breaking balls, which is solid. But he’s posted a .158 average and .316 slug versus splitters and changeups this season, including a 39% whiff rate. That’s after batting .320 off the pitch group a year ago.

Same goes for Rojas, who has handled fastballs very well — .292 with a .500 slug — and he’s hanging in versus changeups and splitters (.263 BAA), but breaking stuff has haunted his dreams (.200 with a .240 slug and 29% whiff).

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The Mariners as a whole versus fastballs 95 mph and up?

.Not good. They’re batting .212 with a .348 slug and 26.7% whiff.

For those curious, those numbers since May 31 are much better: .275 with a .480 slug and 24.6% whiff.

At home in 2024 vs 95 mph and up: .236 average, .373 slug
Road: .192 with a .328 slug.

Strange, eh?

The least surprising piece of intel, though?

The Mariners are batting .199 with a .299 slug and 35% whiff rate versus breaking balls, a number that has gotten worse over the past 18 days, not better.

Happy road trip, peeps.