5 Comments
User's avatar
Dale Roberts's avatar

Though it might be depressing, I'd like to see the same analysis versus breaking pitches. Should the Mariner's scouts/management have been aware that they were building a roster where breaking balls were going to be a problem or is this a one year phenomena?

Expand full comment
Jason A. Churchill's avatar

Breaking balls are a problem for 95% of the league.

Expand full comment
Dale Roberts's avatar

I understand that but some players handle them better than others, true? Are there players who hit breaking balls better than velocity?

Expand full comment
Jason A. Churchill's avatar

Your original question cannot be answered with this season's breaking ball numbers by player.

Expand full comment
Jason A. Churchill's avatar

Meant to add another paragraph to this....

The reason why is because the stats will only be on pitches they put in play, or for whiff rate, swing at, when TAKING breaking balls out of the zone is such a huge part of it all. And Seattle's performance vs breaking balls will LOOK like THE problem, when hitting in general is, no matter the pitch type.

But just so you have them:

Team avg vs breaking stuff is .201, 14th in the AL, 26th in MLB, and their slug is 3rd worst in baseball. They whiff at the 5th highest rate.

But Seattle is 29th in BA vs FB (.239), and 18th in SLG (.415) vs FBs.

FTR, in 2023:

BAA vs FB: 17th (.271)

SLG vs FB: 5th (.474)

BAA vs BB: 25th (.206)

SLG vs BB: 23rd (.352)

They lost 22 pts in AVG and 60 pts in SLG vs FBs from 2023 to 2024.

They lost 5 pts in AVG and 42 pts in SLG vs BBs from 2023 to 2024.

A very large portion of that is Julio OR JP.

FB in 2024

JP: .206/.376

Julio: .300/.473

FB in 2023

FB

JP: .300/.491

Julio: .292/.478

Julio pretty much the same, though he's getting fewer FBs after the first pitch because he's swinging early at pitches he can't put in play. JP has taken a massive nosedive vs FBs.

BB in 2024

JP: .216/.351

Julio: .222/.274

BB in 2023

JP: .201.322

Julio: .262/.489

JP is actually a tad better, but Julio significantly worse.

FTR, the League in 2024:

FB: .261/.422

BB: .219/.364

So now you see why the breaking stuff -- Seattle isn't far from league average, and these numbers aren't normalized for ballparks.

The fastball is the biggest issue from a pitch type/group standpoint.

Expand full comment